Crude Oil Radar

2025-10-11 23:50

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 10/11/2025 Focus: Crude Oil
Well - despite the Israel-Hamas/Iran war not having any direct impact on Oil, there has always been an implied war premium. Today there is a Gaza Peace deal that has been reached (at least temporarily) - now this is still a fluid situation and I would advise to be ready for anything. But this is taking Crude below the $60 mark (which we have been calling for since late August) - this is combined with some bearish stats on Distillates in the US. Add in increased OPEC+ barrels and we have a bearish trader and news sentiment….BUT let me stress a few things to consider - the US production is virtually stalled (downward prices will do nothing to increase production), OPEC+ can raise quotas but can they increase production (Saudi & UAE - yes, every other country is likely at their max output), and other countries are not growing oil supply. This sets up a supply shortfall if (that’s a big IF) demand is the same or even growing. I think this move into the 50s will likely linger into early 2026, then in 2026 - we will start a very strong move up and build back to the 70-80s (at least). That said - here’s what to watch: 61.64 (recently broken support is now resistance) and 57.35 (the likely next stop on the downside). And obviously a big psychological number at 60.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-10-11 23:46:39 Length: 480 chars
Crude oil prices are feeling the pinch as geopolitical tensions ease with a Gaza Peace deal, pushing prices below $60, a level we've anticipated since August. Despite bearish stats and increased OPEC+ supply, U.S. production remains stalled. Notably, the looming threat of renewed U.S.-China trade tensions adds further pressure. Watch for key levels: resistance at $61.64 and the psychological $60 mark. If demand holds steady, we could see a supply shortfall, setting the sta...

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -2/5
Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $62.73 $2.49
WTI: $58.9 $2.61
Spread: $3.83 (Brent premium of $3.83)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 26,483
Weekly Change: 10,316

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $58.9
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $61.32

MA(20): $62.76

Current Price is 58.9, 9 day MA 61.32, 20 day MA 62.76

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: -0.8267

Signal: -0.5471

Days since crossover: 8

MACD crossed the line 8 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 34.92

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 34.92 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

HIGHER

Current: 259,171

Avg (20d): 236,140

Ratio: 1.1

Volume is higher versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 8.29

%D: 20.82

Stochastic %K: 8.29, %D: 20.82. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 14.35

+DI: 15.71

-DI: 34.14

ADX: 14.35 (+DI: 15.71, -DI: 34.14). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERSOLD

Value: -91.71

Williams %R: -91.71 (oversold)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BREAKOUT LOWER

Upper: 66.04

Middle: 62.76

Lower: 59.48

Price vs BBands (20, 2): breakout lower. Upper: 66.04, Middle: 62.76, Lower: 59.48

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13629.0 13505.0 13300.0 12833.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 6403.0 5833.0 6628.0 6210.33
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3590.0 3751.0 3878.0 3244.33
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 16297.0 16168.0 15691.0 15492.0
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2813.0 2082.0 2750.0 2966.0
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 420261.0 416546.0 416931.0 428687.33
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1694142.0 1695087.0 1649630.0 1636291.0
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 219093.0 220694.0 221202.0 216683.67
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 121559.0 123577.0 121637.0 113844.67

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (DEC 25) settled at $62.73, change $-2.49. WTI crude (NOV 25) settled at $58.9, change $-2.61. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.83 (Brent premium of $3.83). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$62.73
2.49
(DEC 25)

WTI Crude

$58.9
2.61
(NOV 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$3.83
Brent premium of $3.83

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Market Analysis

Executive Summary:

The current OPEC market situation reflects a slight decline in crude oil prices amid stable global economic growth. With a projected increase in oil demand and production, the market is navigating through a complex landscape of supply dynamics and geopolitical factors.

Key Market Metrics:

Category Production (mb/d) Demand (mb/d)
World Production
  • Americas: 25.19
  • Europe: 13.51
  • Asia Pacific: 7.13
  • Total OECD: 45.83
  • China: 16.85
  • India: 5.70
  • Other Asia: 9.89
  • Latin America: 6.89
  • Middle East: 9.01
  • Africa: 4.80
  • Russia: 4.02
  • Other Eurasia: 1.31
  • Other Europe: 0.82
  • Total Non-OECD: 59.31
  • Americas Demand: 25.19
  • Europe Demand: 13.51
  • Asia Pacific Demand: 7.13
  • Total OECD Demand: 45.83
  • China Demand: 16.85
  • India Demand: 5.70
  • Other Asia Demand: 9.89
  • Latin America Demand: 6.89
  • Middle East Demand: 9.01
  • Africa Demand: 4.80
  • Russia Demand: 4.02
  • Other Eurasia Demand: 1.31
  • Other Europe Demand: 0.82
  • Total Non-OECD Demand: 59.31
  • Total World Demand: 105.14

Supply-Demand Balance Analysis:

The current supply-demand balance indicates a slight surplus in the market, with total world production at approximately 105.14 mb/d against a demand of 105.14 mb/d. This equilibrium suggests that while the market is stable, any fluctuations in production or demand could lead to significant price volatility.

Production Landscape:

Production by region shows that the Americas remain the largest contributor, followed by the Non-OECD countries, particularly China and India. Notably, the US Non-DoC production is a significant driver, with a forecast of 22.07 mb/d in 2025. The OPEC DoC production has also seen an increase, reflecting OPEC's commitment to managing output levels.

Demand Patterns:

Global oil demand is projected to grow, particularly in the non-OECD regions, with significant increases expected in China and India. The OECD demand growth remains modest, indicating a potential challenge for producers to maintain price levels amidst slower growth in these markets.

Non-DoC vs DoC Analysis:

Non-DoC production is forecasted to reach 51.44 mb/d, significantly outpacing DoC production levels. This disparity highlights the increasing influence of non-OPEC producers in the global oil market, which may challenge OPEC's pricing power and market share.

OPEC's Strategic Position:

OPEC's current market position is characterized by a cautious approach to production adjustments, aiming to balance the market amidst fluctuating prices and external pressures. The organization is likely to continue its strategy of managing output to support prices while monitoring the impact of non-OPEC production growth.

Forward-Looking Indicators:

As we look ahead, the market is expected to experience continued demand growth, particularly in emerging economies. However, potential geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties could pose risks to this outlook, necessitating close monitoring of production levels and market dynamics.

Key Insights and Recommendations:

  • Monitor the balance between Non-DoC and DoC production as it may influence pricing strategies.
  • Focus on emerging markets, particularly in Asia, for potential demand growth opportunities.
  • Be prepared for volatility in oil prices due to geopolitical factors and changing economic conditions.
  • Consider strategic partnerships with Non-OECD producers to enhance market positioning.
  • Stay informed about refining margins and product demand trends to optimize operational strategies.

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-09-23

Managed Money

26,483
Change: -10,316
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712
Change: -9,029
14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312
Change: +5,178
-20.8% of OI

Open Interest

1,936,690
Change: -25,930

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-09-23

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,936,690 contracts (-25,930)

Managed Money Net Position: 26,483 contracts (1.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -10,316 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 283,712 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -402,312 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.7
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 52
Last Updated: 2025-10-11 23:49:44

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.7

Top News Topics

Supply (1 articles)

Demand (2 articles)

Geopolitical (5 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Moderate market volatility

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.98
Daily: -0.56 (-0.56%)
Weekly: 0.87 (0.89%)

US_10Y

4.05
Daily: -0.1 (-2.34%)
Weekly: -0.11 (-2.67%)

SP500

6552.51
Daily: -182.6 (-2.71%)
Weekly: -187.77 (-2.79%)

VIX

21.66
Daily: 5.23 (31.83%)
Weekly: 5.29 (32.32%)

GOLD

3975.9
Daily: 29.6 (0.75%)
Weekly: 27.4 (0.69%)

COPPER

4.85
Daily: -0.23 (-4.47%)
Weekly: -0.14 (-2.78%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $58.9
Closest Support: $58.22 1.15% below current price
Closest Resistance: $61.12 3.77% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $58.22 Support
0.236 $61.12 Resistance
0.382 $62.91
0.5 $64.37
0.618 $65.82
0.786 $67.88
1.0 $70.51

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $73.85
1.618 $78.11
2.0 $82.8
2.618 $90.4

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $58.9
Forecast Generated: 2025-10-11 23:49:46
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.12%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-10-11 $58.83 $56.64 $61.02
2025-10-12 $58.74 $56.55 $60.93
2025-10-13 $58.84 $56.65 $61.02
2025-10-14 $59.08 $56.89 $61.27
2025-10-15 $59.22 $57.03 $61.4

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.12% for the next trading day (2025-10-11), reaching $58.83.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-10-11 and 2025-10-15.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~7.4% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent drop in crude oil prices, with $69.73/b for OPEC Reference Basket and $64.02/b for NYMEX WTI, indicates a bearish market sentiment. The overall market sentiment is bearish with a sentiment score of -0.700. This suggests potential downward pressure in the short term.

The widening Brent-WTI spread of $3.83 reflects differing supply/demand dynamics, which traders should monitor closely for trading opportunities.

With managed money positions turning net short, as indicated by a decrease of -10,316 contracts, traders should be cautious of volatility and consider potential short-term risks in price movements.

Key technical levels to watch include Fibonacci retracement levels, which may provide support and resistance levels for trading strategies.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The current market conditions suggest that producers should reassess their production planning and hedging strategies. With crude inventories increasing, now at 1,317 mb, and lower than historical averages, this could impact pricing and profitability.

The bearish sentiment in the market, combined with the decline in prices, may prompt producers to consider hedging against potential further price drops.

Additionally, the forecasted growth in non-OECD demand, especially in regions like India and China, may provide opportunities for strategic positioning in those markets.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs as WTI and Brent prices are currently under pressure, with WTI at $58.90 and Brent at $62.73. The volatility in pricing could impact procurement strategies.

The geopolitical landscape and inventory levels, with OECD crude stocks at 1,317 mb, indicate a potential supply reliability risk that consumers need to monitor closely.

It may be prudent for consumers to consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with price volatility and supply chain disruptions.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a bearish sentiment, with significant downward pressure on prices and increasing net short positions among managed money. The fundamental balance shows a mixed outlook, with stable demand growth forecasts but rising inventories.

Key driving factors include the ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting supply and the mixed performance of refinery margins, which could impact future pricing dynamics. Analysts should focus on the implications of the Brent-WTI spread and monitor shifts in market sentiment for potential outlook changes.

Overall, the market appears to be in a transitional phase, and close attention to economic indicators and news sentiment will be crucial for forecasting future price movements.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.

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