Crude Oil Radar

Published: 10/08/2025 Focus: Crude Oil

The oil market has been thinking we have too much supply on the market - and they are right but in a different lens than most think. Supply/Demand balances have been much better globally than traders are giving credit. Inventories globally have been very healthy indicating that we have solid demand for our current level of supply. Into this winter and first quarter of 2026 (normally a very bearish time frame - just due to seasonal demand), OPEC+ is releasing more barrels into the market +137,000 bopd for November (and likely every month there after for 12 months). Balance this with a sharp inventory increase in Diesel in the US - and we may have the canary in the coalmine - how quickly it is increasing is an indication of reduced industrial activity and possibly farm activity (due to lower demand from tariffs). Capping off the fundamentals - we are balanced today but need demand increases in 2026 to remain balanced. Technicals are right at the key support/resistance level of 61.64 - this is the last line of support before dropping to the 50s. My stance remains that I think we drop into the 50s and then in 2026 start a long term structural increase in crude demand and crude prices. 61.64 is the number to watch this week with 63.80 and 66.84 as resistance while 67.35 and 53.87 are the support levels.

Updated: 2025-10-08 23:46:59 Length: 480 chars

Crude oil markets are fluctuating amid a backdrop of healthy global supply-demand balances, despite concerns over excess supply. While OPEC+ is increasing output, U.S. inventories have risen unexpectedly, hinting at reduced industrial activity. The critical support level to watch is $61.64, which, if breached, could signal a dip into the $50s. However, a potential long-term demand rebound looms for 2026. With geopolitical tensions and seasonal dynamics in play, traders sho...

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish

Score: -3/5

Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $65.45 $0.02

WTI: $61.73 $0.04

Spread: $3.72 (Brent premium of $3.72)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)

Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BULLISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 26,483

Weekly Change: 10,316

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -3 (Moderately Bearish)

Current Price: $62.16

Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $62.25

MA(20): $62.97

Current Price is 62.16, 9 day MA 62.25, 20 day MA 62.97

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: -0.604

Signal: -0.4522

Days since crossover: 6

MACD crossed the line 6 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 45.9

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 45.9 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 13,320

Avg (20d): 224,019

Ratio: 0.06

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 29.24

%D: 24.25

Stochastic %K: 29.24, %D: 24.25. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 12.94

+DI: 17.73

-DI: 23.5

ADX: 12.94 (+DI: 17.73, -DI: 23.5). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -70.76

Williams %R: -70.76 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 65.69

Middle: 62.97

Lower: 60.25

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 65.69, Middle: 62.97, Lower: 60.25

Category	Current	Last Week	Last Year	3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day)	13629.0	13505.0	13300.0	12833.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	6403.0	5833.0	6628.0	6210.33
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	3590.0	3751.0	3878.0	3244.33
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day)	16297.0	16168.0	15691.0	15492.0
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	2813.0	2082.0	2750.0	2966.0
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	420261.0	416546.0	416931.0	428687.33
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	1694142.0	1695087.0	1649630.0	1636291.0
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	219093.0	220694.0	221202.0	216683.67
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	121559.0	123577.0	121637.0	113844.67

International Price Summary

Brent crude (DEC 25) settled at $65.45, change $-0.02. WTI crude (NOV 25) settled at $61.73, change $+0.04. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.72 (Brent premium of $3.72). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$65.45

0.02

(DEC 25)

WTI Crude

$61.73

0.04

(NOV 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$3.72

Brent premium of $3.72

OPEC Market Analysis

Executive Summary:

The current OPEC market situation reflects a slight decline in crude oil prices, with the OPEC Reference Basket averaging $69.73/b in August. Despite this, the market fundamentals remain solid, supported by a stable global economic growth forecast and a balanced supply-demand outlook for 2025.

Key Market Metrics:

Category	Production (mb/d)	Demand (mb/d)
World Production	105.135	105.135
Non-DoC Production	51.439
DoC Production	42.40 (average for August)

Supply-Demand Balance Analysis:

The global oil demand is projected to grow by approximately 1.3 mb/d in 2025, while production from Non-DoC countries is expected to increase by 0.8 mb/d. This indicates a potential surplus in the market, particularly if DoC production remains stable. The balance suggests that while demand is increasing, supply is also keeping pace, which may prevent significant price spikes.

Production Landscape:

In 2025, the major contributors to global production include the Americas with 25.19 mb/d, followed by Europe at 13.51 mb/d and the Middle East at 9.01 mb/d. Notably, the US Non-DoC production is projected at 22.07 mb/d, indicating its significant role in the global supply landscape. The overall production from OPEC countries participating in the DoC has seen an increase, averaging 42.40 mb/d in August.

Demand Patterns:

Global oil demand is expected to grow primarily in the non-OECD regions, with China and India leading the way. China's demand is projected at 16.85 mb/d, while India's is at 5.70 mb/d. The OECD regions are expected to see modest growth, with total OECD demand at 45.83 mb/d, indicating a shift in demand dynamics towards emerging economies.

Non-DoC vs DoC Analysis:

Non-DoC production is forecasted to reach 51.44 mb/d in 2025, while DoC production is expected to average around 42.40 mb/d. This highlights the growing influence of Non-DoC producers, particularly the US, which is driving a significant portion of the global supply increase. The competition between these two groups will be critical in shaping future market dynamics.

OPEC's Strategic Position:

OPEC's current market position appears stable, with a strategic focus on maintaining production levels to balance the market. The increase in DoC production alongside the growth in Non-DoC output suggests that OPEC may need to adjust its strategies to ensure price stability and market share in the face of rising competition.

Forward-Looking Indicators:

Looking ahead, the trends indicate a continued increase in global oil demand, particularly from non-OECD countries. However, the simultaneous growth in Non-DoC production may lead to a more competitive market environment. OPEC's ability to adapt its production strategies will be crucial in navigating these changes.

Key Insights and Recommendations:

Monitor Non-DoC production closely as it poses a competitive threat to OPEC's market share.
Focus on maintaining price stability through strategic production adjustments.
Invest in understanding emerging market demand, particularly in Asia, to align production strategies.
Consider collaborative approaches with Non-DoC producers to manage supply effectively.
Stay vigilant to geopolitical developments that could impact oil supply chains and market dynamics.

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening

Positioning: Normal Range

Report Date: 2025-09-23

Managed Money

26,483

Change: -10,316

1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712

Change: -9,029

14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312

Change: +5,178

-20.8% of OI

Open Interest

1,936,690

Change: -25,930

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-09-23

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,936,690 contracts (-25,930)

Managed Money Net Position: 26,483 contracts (1.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -10,316 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 283,712 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -402,312 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

Market Sentiment Overview

BULLISH

Average Polarity: 0.6

Confidence: 1.0

Articles Analyzed: 53

Last Updated: 2025-10-08 23:49:59

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

0.6

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive

Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices

Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals

Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand

Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.72

Daily: 0.14 (0.14%)

Weekly: 0.87 (0.89%)

US_10Y

4.13

Daily: 0.0 (0.05%)

Weekly: 0.04 (1.0%)

SP500

6753.72

Daily: 39.13 (0.58%)

Weekly: 38.37 (0.57%)

VIX

16.3

Daily: -0.94 (-5.45%)

Weekly: -0.33 (-1.98%)

GOLD

4047.0

Daily: 70.4 (1.77%)

Weekly: 207.3 (5.4%)

COPPER

5.13

Daily: 0.09 (1.71%)

Weekly: 0.24 (4.83%)

Current Price: $62.16

Closest Support: $60.4 2.83% below current price

Closest Resistance: $62.79 1.01% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $60.4 Support

0.236 $62.79 Resistance

0.382 $64.26

0.5 $65.46

0.618 $66.65

0.786 $68.35

1.0 $70.51

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $73.26

1.618 $76.76

2.0 $80.62

2.618 $86.87

Current Price: $62.55

Forecast Generated: 2025-10-08 23:50:03

Next Trading Day: UP 0.05%

Date	Prediction	Lower Bound	Upper Bound
2025-10-09	$62.58	$60.62	$64.54
2025-10-10	$62.52	$60.56	$64.48
2025-10-11	$62.46	$60.5	$64.42
2025-10-12	$62.4	$60.44	$64.37
2025-10-13	$62.36	$60.39	$64.32

ML Insights

Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
The model predicts a price increase of ~0.05% for the next trading day (2025-10-09), reaching $62.58.
The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-10-09 and 2025-10-13.
The average confidence interval width is ~6.3% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent price movements indicate a downward trend, with the OPEC Reference Basket dropping to an average of $69.73/b. The widening Brent-WTI spread at $3.24/b reflects diverging supply-demand dynamics, suggesting potential volatility in the short term. Traders should be cautious of the managed money net position decreasing to 26,483 contracts, indicating a shift towards bearish sentiment. Look for support levels near $64.00/b for WTI and $67.00/b for Brent, while resistance levels could be around $70.00/b for WTI and $72.00/b for Brent.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

With crude inventories in OECD lower than historical averages, producers may consider adjusting production plans to align with strong physical market fundamentals. The implications for hedging strategies are significant, especially given the bearish sentiment reflected in the CFTC positioning. Producers should monitor inventory levels closely, as the drop in product stocks could indicate tightening supply, potentially leading to price spikes.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations as crude prices remain under pressure. The recent decline in product stocks could lead to supply reliability risks, particularly in the face of geopolitical tensions and fluctuating imports. It's advisable to consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with rising crude prices, especially as the Brent-WTI spread remains significant.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently influenced by a mix of technical and fundamental factors. The decreasing managed money positions and bearish sentiment in the market indicate a potential shift in price direction. However, the strong demand forecast from non-OECD regions remains a key driving factor. Analysts should keep an eye on the balance of supply and demand, particularly as global oil demand grows by 1.3 mb/d in 2025. Adjustments in production and strategic planning will be crucial for navigating the evolving landscape.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.