Crude Oil Radar

2025-10-01 23:50

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 10/01/2025 Focus: Crude Oil
On Sunday’s video I discussed that we would likely head back down to 63.80 and possibly more…well that didn’t take long. WTI is resting below that critical support/resistance line of 63.80 and may be sizing up for the drop below 61.64 which opens up the 50s. OPEC+ is looking at accelerating returning the remaining cuts in Nov-Dec-Jan - which is a bit odd as this is also normally a weak part of the annual price cycle. But possibly this move puts the OPEC countries in the driver seat with corporate drilling budgets being finalized for 2026 - so this could drop drilling activity more and thus opening up space for more DoC country production. Add in a bit of bearish outlook on the government shutdown and this provides good fuel for the bulls to attempt that push down. 61.64 is the line in the sand.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-10-01 23:46:58 Length: 480 chars
Crude oil has recently dipped below the crucial support line of $63.80, potentially paving the way for a drop to $61.64, with concerns regarding OPEC+'s unexpected plans to accelerate cuts amid a historically weak seasonal cycle. Inventories have risen more than expected, and with a looming U.S. government shutdown, bearish sentiment is growing. However, potential tighter sanctions on Russian crude could offer a glimmer of hope for bulls. Watch for price movements around $...

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -3/5
Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $67.02 $0.95
WTI: $62.37 $1.08
Spread: $4.65 (Brent premium of $4.65)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 26,483
Weekly Change: 10,316

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -3 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $62.08
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $63.59

MA(20): $63.34

Current Price is 62.08, 9 day MA 63.59, 20 day MA 63.34

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: -0.2075

Signal: -0.1618

Days since crossover: 1

MACD crossed the line 1 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 42.67

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 42.67 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 14,623

Avg (20d): 225,986

Ratio: 0.06

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 10.52

%D: 20.7

Stochastic %K: 10.52, %D: 20.7. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 10.43

+DI: 18.55

-DI: 24.62

ADX: 10.43 (+DI: 18.55, -DI: 24.62). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERSOLD

Value: -89.48

Williams %R: -89.48 (oversold)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 65.43

Middle: 63.34

Lower: 61.25

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 65.43, Middle: 63.34, Lower: 61.25

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13505.0 13501.0 13200.0 12733.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 5833.0 6495.0 6456.0 6263.33
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3751.0 4484.0 3897.0 4461.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 16168.0 16476.0 16353.0 15751.33
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2082.0 2011.0 2559.0 1801.67
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 416546.0 414754.0 413042.0 420065.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1695087.0 1687905.0 1649879.0 1636650.33
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 220694.0 216569.0 220083.0 218548.67
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 123577.0 122999.0 122921.0 117116.0

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (NOV 25) settled at $67.02, change $-0.95. WTI crude (NOV 25) settled at $62.37, change $-1.08. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.65 (Brent premium of $4.65). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$67.02
0.95
(NOV 25)

WTI Crude

$62.37
1.08
(NOV 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$4.65
Brent premium of $4.65

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Market Analysis

Executive Summary:

The current OPEC market situation reflects a slight decline in crude oil prices, with the OPEC Reference Basket averaging $69.73/b in August. Despite this, the global oil demand growth forecast remains stable, indicating resilience in the market amidst fluctuations in production levels.

Key Market Metrics:

Category Production (mb/d) Demand (mb/d)
World Production 105.135 105.135
Non-DoC Production 51.439
DoC Production 42.40

Supply-Demand Balance Analysis:

The current data indicates a balance between global oil supply and demand, with total world production matching demand at approximately 105.135 mb/d. This equilibrium suggests that the market is currently stable, with no significant surplus or deficit.

Production Landscape:

Major producers include the US, which contributes significantly to Non-DoC production at 22.067 mb/d, followed by Canada and Brazil. The DoC production, primarily from OPEC members, has increased to 42.40 mb/d, reflecting a robust output from participating countries.

Demand Patterns:

Global oil demand is projected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2025, with the non-OECD countries, particularly China and India, driving this growth. The OECD demand remains relatively stagnant, highlighting a divergence in consumption patterns between developed and developing regions.

Non-DoC vs DoC Analysis:

Non-DoC production is forecasted at 51.439 mb/d, significantly higher than DoC production at 42.40 mb/d. This indicates that countries outside the OPEC agreement are contributing more to global supply, which may influence OPEC's pricing strategies and production policies.

OPEC's Strategic Position:

OPEC's current market position is characterized by a cautious approach to production levels, aiming to maintain price stability amidst increasing output from Non-DoC producers. The organization may consider adjusting its production targets to respond to market dynamics effectively.

Forward-Looking Indicators:

As global demand is expected to rise, particularly in emerging markets, OPEC may face pressure to increase production. However, the organization must balance this with the risk of oversupply, which could lead to further price declines.

Key Insights and Recommendations:

  • Monitor Non-DoC production trends closely, as they significantly impact global supply dynamics.
  • Consider strategic adjustments to production levels to maintain price stability.
  • Focus on enhancing demand in OECD regions to balance growth across markets.
  • Prepare for potential shifts in market sentiment due to geopolitical factors affecting oil supply.
  • Stay vigilant regarding inventory levels and their implications for future pricing strategies.

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-09-23

Managed Money

26,483
Change: -10,316
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712
Change: -9,029
14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312
Change: +5,178
-20.8% of OI

Open Interest

1,936,690
Change: -25,930

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-09-23

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,936,690 contracts (-25,930)

Managed Money Net Position: 26,483 contracts (1.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -10,316 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 283,712 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -402,312 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.75
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 53
Last Updated: 2025-10-01 23:49:58

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.75

Top News Topics

Supply (10 articles)

Demand (2 articles)

Geopolitical (1 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

97.72
Daily: -0.05 (-0.05%)
Weekly: -0.83 (-0.84%)

US_10Y

4.11
Daily: -0.04 (-1.01%)
Weekly: -0.07 (-1.58%)

SP500

6711.2
Daily: 22.74 (0.34%)
Weekly: 106.48 (1.61%)

VIX

16.29
Daily: 0.01 (0.06%)
Weekly: -0.45 (-2.69%)

GOLD

3889.6
Daily: 48.8 (1.27%)
Weekly: 152.7 (4.09%)

COPPER

4.9
Daily: 0.1 (1.99%)
Weekly: 0.2 (4.27%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $62.08
Closest Support: $61.45 1.01% below current price
Closest Resistance: $63.59 2.43% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $61.45 Support
0.236 $63.59 Resistance
0.382 $64.91
0.5 $65.98
0.618 $67.05
0.786 $68.57
1.0 $70.51

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $72.97
1.618 $76.11
2.0 $79.57
2.618 $85.17

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $61.78
Forecast Generated: 2025-10-01 23:50:01
Next Trading Day: UP 0.05%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-10-02 $61.81 $59.79 $63.83
2025-10-03 $61.89 $59.87 $63.9
2025-10-04 $62.03 $60.01 $64.05
2025-10-05 $62.09 $60.08 $64.11
2025-10-06 $62.11 $60.1 $64.13

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.05% for the next trading day (2025-10-02), reaching $61.81.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-10-02 and 2025-10-06.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~6.5% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent bearish sentiment in the market, with an overall sentiment score of -0.750, suggests potential downward pressure on crude oil prices. The $67.02 for Brent and $62.37 for WTI indicate a widening Brent-WTI spread of $4.65, reflecting differing supply/demand dynamics.

The support levels to watch are around $64.00 for WTI and $67.00 for Brent, while resistance could form near $69.00. Given the risk of oversupply and bearish positioning from managed money, traders should consider short-term volatility and potential price corrections.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The current market conditions, with bearish sentiment and a slight increase in crude inventories, suggest a cautious approach to production planning. With OECD crude stocks at 1,317 mb, significantly lower than historical averages, producers may need to adjust output to avoid further inventory build-up.

Hedging strategies should be revisited, especially given the strategy of utilizing options to protect against downside risks amid fluctuating prices. The balance of supply and demand forecasts indicates a stable growth in oil demand, but producers must remain agile to respond to potential shifts in market sentiment.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

With crude prices hovering around $67.02 for Brent and $62.37 for WTI, consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs. The risk of geopolitical tensions and oversupply could lead to price volatility, impacting procurement strategies.

Additionally, the current bearish sentiment and increasing refinery margins in the US Gulf Coast suggest opportunities for securing favorable contracts. Monitoring inventory levels and geopolitical developments will be crucial for maintaining supply reliability.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently facing a bearish outlook, driven by increased speculative selling and high inventory levels. Key factors influencing this trend include stable global economic growth forecasts and a projected increase in oil demand, particularly from non-OECD countries.

The balance of supply and demand is tightening, yet the market remains vulnerable to sentiment shifts driven by geopolitical developments and oversupply concerns. Analysts should focus on the implications of the widening Brent-WTI spread and the positioning of managed money traders, as these could signal upcoming market reversals or corrections.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.

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