Crude Oil Radar

2025-09-25 23:50

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 09/25/2025 Focus: Crude Oil
Most traders are watching crude inventories which are below last year and below the 3 year average. Yet this is really only one side of the equation - the only true market for crude oil is refineries to be refined into gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, bunker fuel, etc. When we look at that market - the refiners are running every last bit of crude through the US capacity, and this is giving us lots of products - gasoline is sitting right on top of 3 year average stocks, while distillates that were previously setting new record low stocks are now sitting ABOVE 3 year averages - this is a canary in the coalmine and a BIG indicator that the economy is not in good shape and the crude demand will falter in coming months (maybe even weeks). Russian sanctions and increased strikes on Russian infrastructure are keeping crude bid higher - but the near term weakness is real. Right now we are trading just over the key support/resistance level of 63.80 and a break below there takes us back to re-test 61.64 - I think we are going to see a drop into the 50s before 2026 and then a long bullish trend during next year due to lower global supply. This does change from the technical perspective if the bulls can break above 66.84 - then we may skip on the short term dip and just head into the long bull trend that is building…

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-09-25 23:46:55 Length: 480 chars
Crude oil markets are in a precarious position as inventories drop below last year's levels, while refiners are working at full capacity to meet product demand. Despite high refinery activity, economic signals suggest potential crude demand weakness ahead. Current trading hovers just above key support at $63.80, with a possible dip into the $50s if it breaks down. Geopolitical tensions and Russian sanctions are propping up prices, but the near-term outlook remains cautious...

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Neutral
Score: -1/5
Short: BUY | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $69.31 $1.68
WTI: $64.99 $1.58
Spread: $4.32 (Brent premium of $4.32)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BULLISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 36,799
Weekly Change: 26,797

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -1 (Neutral)
Current Price: $65.19
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $63.82

MA(20): $63.57

Current Price is 65.19, 9 day MA 63.82, 20 day MA 63.57

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.0355

Signal: -0.3007

Days since crossover: 9

MACD crossed the line 9 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 56.5

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 56.5 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 8,693

Avg (20d): 211,620

Ratio: 0.04

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

OVERBOUGHT

%K: 94.59

%D: 84.05

Stochastic %K: 94.59, %D: 84.05. Signal: overbought

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 10.17

+DI: 21.28

-DI: 17.18

ADX: 10.17 (+DI: 21.28, -DI: 17.18). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERBOUGHT

Value: -5.41

Williams %R: -5.41 (overbought)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 65.61

Middle: 63.57

Lower: 61.54

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 65.61, Middle: 63.57, Lower: 61.54

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13501.0 13482.0 13200.0 12700.0
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 6495.0 5692.0 6322.0 6711.33
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 4484.0 5277.0 4589.0 4185.0
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 16476.0 16424.0 16477.0 16056.33
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2011.0 415.0 1733.0 2526.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 414754.0 415361.0 417513.0 419962.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1687905.0 1688149.0 1663174.0 1640486.67
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 216569.0 217650.0 221621.0 217591.33
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 122999.0 124684.0 125148.0 119114.67

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (NOV 25) settled at $69.31, change $+1.68. WTI crude (NOV 25) settled at $64.99, change $+1.58. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.32 (Brent premium of $4.32). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$69.31
1.68
(NOV 25)

WTI Crude

$64.99
1.58
(NOV 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$4.32
Brent premium of $4.32

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Market Analysis

Executive Summary:

The current OPEC market situation reflects a slight decline in crude oil prices amidst stable global economic growth. With a projected increase in oil demand, particularly in non-OECD regions, OPEC's production adjustments will be critical to maintaining market balance.

Key Market Metrics:

Category Production (mb/d) Demand (mb/d)
World Production 104.427 mb/d 105.135 mb/d
Non-DoC Production 51.440 mb/d -
DoC Production 42.40 mb/d -

Supply-Demand Balance Analysis:

The total world oil demand stands at 105.135 mb/d, while total production is at 104.427 mb/d, indicating a supply deficit of approximately 0.708 mb/d. This deficit suggests potential upward pressure on prices if production levels do not increase to meet demand.

Production Landscape:

In 2025, the Americas contribute significantly with 25.10 mb/d, followed by Europe at 13.54 mb/d and the Middle East at 9.01 mb/d. Notably, the US remains the largest producer within the Non-DoC framework, with production levels reaching 22.07 mb/d.

Demand Patterns:

Global oil demand is projected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2025, with the non-OECD regions, particularly China and India, leading this growth. China's demand is expected to reach 16.85 mb/d, while India's demand is projected at 5.70 mb/d, indicating robust consumption patterns in these economies.

Non-DoC vs DoC Analysis:

Non-DoC production is forecasted at 51.440 mb/d, significantly higher than DoC production, which is at 42.40 mb/d. This highlights the critical role of Non-DoC producers in meeting global oil supply needs, especially as demand continues to rise.

OPEC's Strategic Position:

OPEC's current market position is characterized by a need to balance production levels with rising global demand. The organization may consider strategic adjustments to its output to mitigate the supply deficit and stabilize prices in the face of increasing demand from non-OECD countries.

Forward-Looking Indicators:

As demand grows, particularly in Asia, OPEC's ability to respond with increased production will be vital. Monitoring geopolitical developments and economic indicators will provide insights into potential market shifts in the coming months.

Key Insights and Recommendations:

  • OPEC should consider increasing production to address the current supply deficit.
  • Focus on maintaining stability in pricing amidst fluctuating demand from major economies.
  • Monitor Non-DoC production trends closely as they play a significant role in global supply dynamics.
  • Engage in proactive communication with market participants to manage expectations and reduce volatility.
  • Evaluate the impact of geopolitical events on oil supply and demand to inform strategic decisions.

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-09-16

Managed Money

36,799
Change: +26,797
1.9% of OI

Producer/Merchant

292,741
Change: -8,659
14.9% of OI

Swap Dealers

-407,490
Change: -3,935
-20.8% of OI

Open Interest

1,962,620
Change: 5,505

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-09-16

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,962,620 contracts (+5,505)

Managed Money Net Position: 36,799 contracts (1.9% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +26,797 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 292,741 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -407,490 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BULLISH
Average Polarity: 0.6
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 72
Last Updated: 2025-09-25 23:49:51

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

0.6

Top News Topics

Supply (8 articles)

Demand (3 articles)

Geopolitical (12 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.39
Daily: 0.52 (0.53%)
Weekly: 0.75 (0.77%)

US_10Y

4.17
Daily: 0.03 (0.6%)
Weekly: 0.03 (0.8%)

SP500

6604.72
Daily: -33.25 (-0.5%)
Weekly: -59.64 (-0.89%)

VIX

16.74
Daily: 0.56 (3.46%)
Weekly: 1.29 (8.35%)

GOLD

3773.9
Daily: 41.8 (1.12%)
Weekly: 102.4 (2.79%)

COPPER

4.78
Daily: 0.03 (0.68%)
Weekly: 0.22 (4.73%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $65.19
Closest Support: $64.91 0.43% below current price
Closest Resistance: $65.98 1.21% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $61.45
0.236 $63.59
0.382 $64.91 Support
0.5 $65.98 Resistance
0.618 $67.05
0.786 $68.57
1.0 $70.51

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $72.97
1.618 $76.11
2.0 $79.57
2.618 $85.17

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $64.98
Forecast Generated: 2025-09-25 23:49:53
Next Trading Day: UP 0.04%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-09-26 $65.01 $63.16 $66.85
2025-09-27 $64.95 $63.11 $66.79
2025-09-28 $64.87 $63.03 $66.72
2025-09-29 $64.78 $62.94 $66.63
2025-09-30 $64.79 $62.95 $66.63

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.04% for the next trading day (2025-09-26), reaching $65.01.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-09-26 and 2025-09-30.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~5.7% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

Current market dynamics indicate a potential bullish sentiment with a sentiment score of +0.600. The Brent-WTI spread at $4.32 reflects ongoing differences in global supply/demand dynamics, which may present short-term trading opportunities.

The market remains in backwardation, suggesting that traders could anticipate price support levels around $64.02 (WTI) and $67.26 (Brent). However, the recent shift to a net short position by managed money traders indicates potential volatility ahead, particularly if speculative selling pressure continues.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

With global oil demand forecasted to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2025, producers should consider adjusting production plans to align with this demand trajectory. The inventory levels indicate a tightening market, particularly with OECD crude stocks 208.6 mb below the 2015–2019 average, which could support higher prices.

Hedging strategies should be evaluated against current market sentiment, which is bullish for the short term. The increase in crude imports to the US and stable production from non-OPEC countries suggests a need for strategic planning in response to potential price fluctuations.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

As crude oil prices remain volatile, consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations, particularly with WTI currently at $64.99 and Brent at $69.31. The geopolitical landscape, especially concerning Russia, poses supply reliability risks that could impact procurement strategies.

With refinery margins trending upward in the USGC, it may be prudent for refineries to optimize their operations while monitoring the global supply chain for any disruptions. Consumer procurement strategies should consider the current sentiment and potential geopolitical tensions that could affect supply.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market presents a complex picture with bullish sentiment driven primarily by strong global demand forecasts and tightening inventory levels. The CFTC positioning indicates a shift towards a net short position among managed money, which could signal potential market reversals.

Key driving factors include stable economic growth projections across major economies and ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains. Analysts should closely monitor market volatility stemming from speculative trading behaviors and shifts in geopolitical landscapes, particularly in the context of Russian tensions.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always consider consulting with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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