MA(9): $63.3
MA(20): $63.51
MACD: -0.3656
Signal: -0.4294
Days since crossover: 6
Value: 45.73
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 8,256
Avg (20d): 201,626
Ratio: 0.04
%K: 32.08
%D: 35.08
ADX: 10.0
+DI: 14.77
-DI: 19.09
Value: -67.92
Upper: 65.39
Middle: 63.51
Lower: 61.63
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13482.0 | 13495.0 | 13300.0 | 12733.33 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5692.0 | 6271.0 | 6867.0 | 6595.33 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5277.0 | 2745.0 | 3305.0 | 4398.67 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16424.0 | 16818.0 | 16759.0 | 16378.67 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 415.0 | 3526.0 | 3562.0 | 2196.67 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 415361.0 | 424646.0 | 419143.0 | 422247.67 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1688149.0 | 1686474.0 | 1659136.0 | 1649988.67 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 217650.0 | 219997.0 | 221552.0 | 218569.0 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 124684.0 | 120638.0 | 125023.0 | 120688.0 |
Brent crude (NOV 25) settled at $66.68, change $-0.76. WTI crude (OCT 25) settled at $62.68, change $-0.89. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.0 (Brent premium of $4.00). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
The current OPEC market situation reflects a slight decline in crude oil prices amid stable global economic growth and steady oil demand. Despite a drop in the OPEC Reference Basket value, production levels from both DoC and Non-DoC countries indicate a balanced supply-demand dynamic, with potential implications for future pricing and market strategies.
| Category | Value (mb/d) |
|---|---|
| World Production | |
| Americas | 25.10 |
| Europe | 13.54 |
| Asia Pacific | 7.17 |
| Total OECD | 45.81 |
| China | 16.85 |
| India | 5.70 |
| Other Asia | 9.91 |
| Latin America | 6.89 |
| Middle East | 9.01 |
| Africa | 4.80 |
| Russia | 4.02 |
| Other Eurasia | 1.31 |
| Other Europe | 0.82 |
| Total Non-OECD | 59.33 |
| World Demand | |
| Americas Demand | 25.10 |
| Europe Demand | 13.54 |
| Asia Pacific Demand | 7.17 |
| Total OECD Demand | 45.81 |
| China Demand | 16.85 |
| India Demand | 5.70 |
| Other Asia Demand | 9.91 |
| Latin America Demand | 6.89 |
| Middle East Demand | 9.01 |
| Africa Demand | 4.80 |
| Russia Demand | 4.02 |
| Other Eurasia Demand | 1.31 |
| Other Europe Demand | 0.82 |
| Total Non-OECD Demand | 59.33 |
| Total World Demand | 105.14 |
| Non-DoC Production | |
| US Non-DoC Production | 22.07 |
| Canada Non-DoC Production | 6.06 |
| Chile Non-DoC Production | 0.01 |
| OECD Americas Non-DoC Production | 28.14 |
| Norway Non-DoC Production | 2.02 |
| UK Non-DoC Production | 0.72 |
| Denmark Non-DoC Production | 0.07 |
| Other OECD Europe Non-DoC Production | 0.76 |
| OECD Europe Non-DoC Production | 3.57 |
| Australia Non-DoC Production | 0.35 |
| Other OECD Asia Pacific Non-DoC Production | 0.07 |
| OECD Asia Pacific Non-DoC Production | 0.42 |
| Total OECD Non-DoC Production | 32.13 |
| DoC Production | |
| Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs) | 8.70 |
| DoC Crude Production | 42.40 |
The current data indicates that total world demand stands at approximately 105.14 mb/d, while total world production is slightly lower at 104.25 mb/d, resulting in a marginal supply surplus. This balance suggests a stable market environment, but with potential for price fluctuations if production levels change significantly or if demand increases unexpectedly.
In 2025, the major contributors to global oil production include the United States with 22.07 mb/d, followed by Saudi Arabia and Russia. The DoC countries have increased their production, averaging 42.40 mb/d, indicating a robust commitment to maintaining output levels. Notably, Non-DoC production is also on the rise, particularly from the US, Brazil, and Canada, which are expected to drive growth in the coming years.
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-09-16
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 1,962,620 contracts (+5,505)
Managed Money Net Position: 36,799 contracts (1.9% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +26,797 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 292,741 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -407,490 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-20 | $62.64 | $60.76 | $64.52 |
| 2025-09-21 | $62.6 | $60.72 | $64.47 |
| 2025-09-22 | $62.66 | $60.78 | $64.54 |
| 2025-09-23 | $62.7 | $60.83 | $64.58 |
| 2025-09-24 | $62.76 | $60.88 | $64.63 |
The bearish sentiment in the market, with a sentiment score of -0.600, suggests a cautious approach. The $66.68 for Brent and $62.68 for WTI indicate potential support levels at these prices. The widening Brent-WTI spread of $4.00 reflects ongoing supply dynamics that could offer short-term trading opportunities, especially if geopolitical tensions escalate. Watch for volatility as managed money positioning has shifted to a net short position, indicating potential for price corrections or rebounds.
With the crude oil commercial stocks at 1,317 mb, which is significantly lower than historical averages, producers should consider adjusting production planning to align with the tightening supply. The hedging strategies may be revised to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating prices, particularly with the current bearish sentiment in the market. Understanding the implications of inventory levels can help in optimizing operational efficiency and maintaining profitability amidst market fluctuations.
Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations, as the current $66.68 Brent and $62.68 WTI prices may lead to higher procurement costs. The geopolitical risks, particularly surrounding sanctions and supply reliability, necessitate a reevaluation of procurement strategies. Additionally, with the tightening inventory levels, it is advisable to consider hedging options to mitigate the impact of price volatility on operational costs.
The current Crude Oil market is characterized by bearish sentiment driven by managed money positioning and declining prices. The fundamentals indicate a tightening supply scenario, particularly with OECD commercial inventories below historical averages. Key drivers include geopolitical tensions and fluctuations in global demand, particularly from non-OECD countries. Analysts should monitor these factors closely, as shifts in sentiment and positioning could lead to significant market outlook changes in the near term.