MA(9): $63.28
MA(20): $63.56
MACD: -0.3465
Signal: -0.4453
Days since crossover: 5
Value: 45.03
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 82,321
Avg (20d): 212,371
Ratio: 0.39
%K: 26.86
%D: 43.3
ADX: 9.79
+DI: 14.89
-DI: 19.25
Value: -73.14
Upper: 65.41
Middle: 63.56
Lower: 61.7
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13482.0 | 13495.0 | 13300.0 | 12733.33 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5692.0 | 6271.0 | 6867.0 | 6595.33 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5277.0 | 2745.0 | 3305.0 | 4398.67 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16424.0 | 16818.0 | 16759.0 | 16378.67 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 415.0 | 3526.0 | 3562.0 | 2196.67 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 415361.0 | 424646.0 | 419143.0 | 422247.67 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1688149.0 | 1686474.0 | 1659136.0 | 1649988.67 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 217650.0 | 219997.0 | 221552.0 | 218569.0 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 124684.0 | 120638.0 | 125023.0 | 120688.0 |
Brent crude (NOV 25) settled at $66.68, change $-0.76. WTI crude (OCT 25) settled at $62.68, change $-0.89. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.0 (Brent premium of $4.00). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
The OPEC market is currently experiencing a decline in crude oil prices, with the OPEC Reference Basket averaging $69.73/b in August, reflecting a $1.24 drop month-on-month. Despite this, the fundamentals of the physical crude market remain solid, supported by stable global economic growth and a forecasted increase in oil demand, particularly in non-OECD regions.
| Category | Value (mb/d) |
|---|---|
| World Production (Total) | 104.427 mb/d |
| World Demand (Total) | 105.135 mb/d |
| Non-DoC Production | 51.440 mb/d |
| DoC Production | 42.40 mb/d |
The current supply-demand balance indicates a slight deficit in the market, with total world demand at 105.135 mb/d against total production of 104.427 mb/d. This deficit could lead to upward pressure on prices if the trend continues, especially as global demand is projected to increase in the coming years.
In 2025, the major contributors to oil production include:
Notably, production from OPEC member countries increased by 509 tb/d in August, reflecting a proactive response to market conditions.
Global oil demand is projected to grow by approximately 1.3 mb/d in 2025, with significant contributions from non-OECD countries, particularly China and India. The demand in the OECD region is expected to grow modestly, indicating a shift in consumption patterns towards emerging markets.
Non-DoC production is currently at 51.440 mb/d, while DoC production stands at approximately 42.40 mb/d. The Non-DoC countries, particularly the US and Canada, are showing robust growth, which poses a challenge to OPEC's market share and pricing power.
OPEC's current market position is characterized by a cautious approach to production levels, balancing the need to support prices while responding to increasing competition from Non-DoC producers. The organization is likely to continue monitoring market conditions closely to adjust its production strategy accordingly.
In the coming months, OPEC may face challenges from rising Non-DoC production and fluctuating global demand. However, if the projected demand growth materializes, particularly in Asia, there could be opportunities for price stabilization and recovery.
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-09-16
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 1,962,620 contracts (+5,505)
Managed Money Net Position: 36,799 contracts (1.9% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +26,797 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 292,741 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -407,490 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-20 | $62.64 | $60.76 | $64.52 |
| 2025-09-21 | $62.6 | $60.72 | $64.48 |
| 2025-09-22 | $62.66 | $60.78 | $64.54 |
| 2025-09-23 | $62.71 | $60.83 | $64.59 |
| 2025-09-24 | $62.76 | $60.88 | $64.64 |
The current market dynamics suggest a bearish sentiment with a sentiment score of -0.600. The $66.68 for Brent and $62.68 for WTI indicates a narrowing Brent-WTI spread of $4.00, reflecting ongoing differences in global supply/demand dynamics. The widening of the Brent-WTI spread by 93¢ m-o-m suggests potential short-term opportunities for traders focusing on arbitrage.
The market remains in backwardation, indicating support for prices at these levels; however, the recent shift to a net short position by hedge funds could lead to increased volatility. Traders should be cautious of potential downside risks given the heavy speculative selling pressure.
The current market conditions, with OECD commercial crude inventories at 1,317 mb, indicate a tightening supply balance despite recent increases in production from OPEC+ members. This presents implications for production planning and potential hedging strategies as producers navigate the bearish sentiment in the market.
The increase in crude imports to 6.5 mb/d in the US and the mixed signals from global demand could necessitate adjustments in operational strategies. Producers should monitor inventory levels closely, as the risk of oversupply could impact pricing and profitability.
With crude prices settling at $66.68 for Brent and $62.68 for WTI, consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations. The bearish sentiment and declining refinery margins in regions like Rotterdam and Singapore indicate a need for strategic procurement planning.
The geopolitical risks surrounding Russian supplies and the tightening inventory levels could affect supply reliability. Consumers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with price uncertainties in the coming months.
The Crude Oil market is exhibiting bearish trends, influenced by a combination of fundamental pressures including stagnant demand growth forecasts and rising inventories. The balance of supply and demand remains precarious, with OECD crude stocks below historical averages.
Analysts should focus on the implications of the geopolitical landscape, particularly concerning Russian supply dynamics, and the impact of speculative positioning as reflected in the CFTC data. The market's backwardation suggests potential for price recovery, yet the bearish sentiment and technical indicators warn of potential downward pressure.