MA(9): $63.24
MA(20): $63.54
MACD: -0.372
Signal: -0.4504
Days since crossover: 5
Value: 43.83
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 249,663
Avg (20d): 220,738
Ratio: 1.13
%K: 19.87
%D: 40.98
ADX: 10.11
+DI: 14.66
-DI: 20.82
Value: -80.13
Upper: 65.43
Middle: 63.54
Lower: 61.65
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13482.0 | 13495.0 | 13300.0 | 12733.33 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5692.0 | 6271.0 | 6867.0 | 6595.33 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5277.0 | 2745.0 | 3305.0 | 4398.67 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16424.0 | 16818.0 | 16759.0 | 16378.67 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 415.0 | 3526.0 | 3562.0 | 2196.67 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 415361.0 | 424646.0 | 419143.0 | 422247.67 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1688149.0 | 1686474.0 | 1659136.0 | 1649988.67 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 217650.0 | 219997.0 | 221552.0 | 218569.0 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 124684.0 | 120638.0 | 125023.0 | 120688.0 |
Brent crude (NOV 25) settled at $67.44, change $-0.51. WTI crude (OCT 25) settled at $63.57, change $-0.48. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.87 (Brent premium of $3.87). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
The current OPEC market situation reflects a modest decline in crude oil prices, with the OPEC Reference Basket averaging $69.73/b in August. Despite bearish sentiment among speculative traders, the underlying fundamentals of the physical crude market remain strong, supported by stable global economic growth and consistent demand forecasts.
| Category | Production (mb/d) | Demand (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|
| World Production | 105.135 | 105.135 |
| Non-DoC Production | 51.440 | N/A |
| DoC Production | 42.40 | N/A |
The global oil supply is currently balanced with demand, as total world production matches total world demand at approximately 105.135 mb/d. This equilibrium suggests no immediate surplus or deficit, which is crucial for maintaining price stability in the market.
In 2025, the major contributors to global oil production include the Americas (25.10 mb/d), Europe (13.54 mb/d), and the Middle East (9.01 mb/d). The increase in DoC production by 509 tb/d in August indicates a positive trend among OPEC members, with a total DoC production averaging about 42.40 mb/d.
Global oil demand is projected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2025, with significant contributions from the non-OECD regions, particularly China and India. The demand in the OECD is expected to grow modestly, indicating a shift in consumption patterns towards emerging markets.
Non-DoC production stands at 51.440 mb/d, significantly higher than DoC production at 42.40 mb/d. This indicates that countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation are playing a crucial role in meeting global oil supply needs, which may influence OPEC's strategic decisions moving forward.
OPEC's current position is strengthened by stable production levels and a balanced supply-demand scenario. However, the organization may need to consider the increasing output from Non-DoC producers and the bearish sentiment from speculative traders when formulating future policies.
Looking ahead, the oil market is likely to experience continued stability in prices, provided that demand growth aligns with production levels. However, any significant changes in geopolitical dynamics or economic conditions could alter this outlook.
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-09-16
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 1,962,620 contracts (+5,505)
Managed Money Net Position: 36,799 contracts (1.9% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +26,797 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 292,741 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -407,490 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-19 | $63.51 | $61.66 | $65.36 |
| 2025-09-20 | $63.47 | $61.62 | $65.32 |
| 2025-09-21 | $63.43 | $61.58 | $65.28 |
| 2025-09-22 | $63.46 | $61.61 | $65.31 |
| 2025-09-23 | $63.49 | $61.64 | $65.34 |
The recent bearish sentiment, with a sentiment score of -0.600, indicates potential risks in the short term. The Brent-WTI spread at $3.87 suggests that Brent remains premium due to global supply dynamics, which could present trading opportunities for those positioned on the Brent side.
With the market in backwardation, traders should watch for support levels near the recent lows of $64.02 for WTI and $67.26 for Brent. Volatility is expected as speculative positions shift, particularly with managed money increasing their net short positions.
The current balance of supply and demand shows an increase in commercial crude stocks, with OECD inventories at 2,761 mb. This may necessitate adjustments in production planning to avoid oversupply in the market.
Given the bearish sentiment and declining prices, producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks. The increase in production by OPEC+ countries and the growth in non-DoC liquids production from the US, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina may further pressure prices.
Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations as the market reacts to bearish sentiment and geopolitical uncertainties. The recent increase in US crude imports to 6.5 mb/d indicates a stable supply, but vigilance is required given the supply reliability risks highlighted by the global geopolitical landscape.
Additionally, the procurement strategy should focus on securing contracts at current rates before any potential spikes in prices as the market adjusts to inventory levels and demand forecasts.
The Crude Oil market is currently exhibiting a bearish sentiment with a sentiment score of -0.600. The combination of increased inventories and a bearish outlook from managed money traders suggests a potential for further price declines.
Key driving factors include stable global economic growth but tempered by concerns over demand from the OECD regions. Analysts should closely monitor geopolitical developments, particularly related to Russian supply risks, as they could significantly influence market dynamics moving forward.