MA(9): $63.18
MA(20): $63.58
MACD: -0.3355
Signal: -0.4765
Days since crossover: 4
Value: 47.08
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 5,678
Avg (20d): 216,931
Ratio: 0.03
%K: 37.34
%D: 53.71
ADX: 9.42
+DI: 16.14
-DI: 16.48
Value: -62.66
Upper: 65.4
Middle: 63.58
Lower: 61.76
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13482.0 | 13495.0 | 13300.0 | 12733.33 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5692.0 | 6271.0 | 6867.0 | 6595.33 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5277.0 | 2745.0 | 3305.0 | 4398.67 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16424.0 | 16818.0 | 16759.0 | 16378.67 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 415.0 | 3526.0 | 3562.0 | 2196.67 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 415361.0 | 424646.0 | 419143.0 | 422247.67 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1688149.0 | 1686474.0 | 1659136.0 | 1649988.67 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 217650.0 | 219997.0 | 221552.0 | 218569.0 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 124684.0 | 120638.0 | 125023.0 | 120688.0 |
Brent crude (NOV 25) settled at $67.95, change $-0.52. WTI crude (OCT 25) settled at $64.05, change $-0.47. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.9 (Brent premium of $3.90). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
The current OPEC market situation reflects a slight decline in crude oil prices, with the OPEC Reference Basket averaging $69.73/b in August. Despite a stable global economic growth forecast, oil demand growth remains modest, leading to a delicate balance between supply and demand in the market.
| Category | Production (mb/d) | Demand (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|
| World Production | 104.428 mb/d | 105.135 mb/d |
| Non-DoC Production | 51.440 mb/d | N/A |
| DoC Production | 42.40 mb/d | N/A |
The analysis indicates a slight deficit in the global oil market, with total world demand at 105.135 mb/d compared to total production of 104.428 mb/d. This results in a supply shortfall, which could lead to upward pressure on prices if the trend continues.
In 2025, the major contributors to global oil production include the US (22.068 mb/d), Canada (6.060 mb/d), and Brazil (4.389 mb/d). The production from OPEC countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) has seen an increase to 42.40 mb/d, reflecting a coordinated effort to stabilize the market.
Global oil demand is projected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2025, with significant contributions from the non-OECD regions, particularly China (16.852 mb/d) and India (5.704 mb/d). However, demand growth in OECD countries remains subdued, indicating potential challenges in sustaining overall demand growth.
Non-DoC production stands at 51.440 mb/d, significantly contributing to global supply, while DoC production is at 42.40 mb/d. The disparity highlights the increasing role of non-OPEC producers in meeting global oil demand, which may influence OPEC's strategic decisions moving forward.
OPEC's current market position is characterized by a cautious approach to production levels amidst fluctuating demand and prices. The organization may consider adjusting output to address the supply-demand imbalance and stabilize prices in the coming months.
As the market navigates through modest demand growth and increasing production from non-OPEC countries, OPEC may need to reassess its production strategies. The outlook suggests potential volatility in oil prices, influenced by geopolitical factors and economic conditions in major consuming countries.
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-09-09
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 1,957,115 contracts (-30,746)
Managed Money Net Position: 10,002 contracts (0.5% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -17,321 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 301,400 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -403,555 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-19 | $63.51 | $61.66 | $65.36 |
| 2025-09-20 | $63.46 | $61.61 | $65.31 |
| 2025-09-21 | $63.42 | $61.57 | $65.27 |
| 2025-09-22 | $63.46 | $61.61 | $65.31 |
| 2025-09-23 | $63.49 | $61.64 | $65.34 |
Current market dynamics indicate a bearish sentiment, with the Brent crude settling at $67.95 and WTI at $64.05. The widening Brent-WTI spread of $3.90 suggests divergence in supply-demand dynamics, influenced by geopolitical factors and transportation costs. Traders should monitor key support levels around $64.00 for WTI and $67.00 for Brent, with potential volatility expected due to bearish positioning from managed money.
With OECD commercial inventories showing a slight increase, producers may need to adjust production levels to avoid oversupply. The bearish market sentiment, coupled with a decline in crude oil prices, suggests that hedging strategies should be revisited to mitigate financial risks. Additionally, the growth in non-DoC liquids production from the US, Brazil, and Canada necessitates careful planning regarding market entry and pricing strategies.
Consumers should brace for potential fluctuations in input costs as geopolitical tensions and bearish sentiment could impact WTI and Brent crude prices. The supply reliability risks are heightened due to fluctuating inventory levels and international supply dynamics. Strategic procurement and hedging may be necessary to manage costs effectively in the face of these uncertainties.
The current crude oil market presents a complex picture, with bearish sentiment dominating due to speculative selling pressure and a tightening supply-demand balance indicated by rising inventories. The CFTC positioning shows managed money turning net short, suggesting potential for price corrections. Analysts should focus on geopolitical developments, particularly concerning Russian supply, as they are likely to influence market sentiment and price trajectories in the short term.