MA(9): $63.23
MA(20): $63.6
MACD: -0.2988
Signal: -0.4692
Days since crossover: 4
Value: 48.96
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 1,634
Avg (20d): 216,729
Ratio: 0.01
%K: 47.38
%D: 57.06
ADX: 9.37
+DI: 16.17
-DI: 16.32
Value: -52.62
Upper: 65.41
Middle: 63.6
Lower: 61.79
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13482.0 | 13495.0 | 13300.0 | 12733.33 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5692.0 | 6271.0 | 6867.0 | 6595.33 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5277.0 | 2745.0 | 3305.0 | 4398.67 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16424.0 | 16818.0 | 16759.0 | 16378.67 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 415.0 | 3526.0 | 3562.0 | 2196.67 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 415361.0 | 424646.0 | 419143.0 | 422247.67 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1688149.0 | 1686474.0 | 1659136.0 | 1649988.67 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 217650.0 | 219997.0 | 221552.0 | 218569.0 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 124684.0 | 120638.0 | 125023.0 | 120688.0 |
Brent crude (NOV 25) settled at $67.95, change $-0.52. WTI crude (OCT 25) settled at $64.05, change $-0.47. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.9 (Brent premium of $3.90). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
The current OPEC market situation reflects a decline in crude oil prices alongside steady global economic growth. Despite a slight decrease in production from DoC countries, demand for oil is projected to increase, indicating a potential tightening of the market in the near future.
| Category | Country/Region | Production/Demand (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|
| World Production | OPEC | |
| World Production | Non-OPEC | |
| World Demand | OECD | |
| World Demand | Non-OECD | |
| Non-DoC Production | USA | |
| DoC Production | Saudi Arabia |
The analysis of production and demand figures indicates a potential surplus in the market, particularly with non-DoC production outpacing demand growth. However, the upward revision of demand for DoC crude suggests a tightening supply situation that could lead to price increases if production does not keep pace.
The production landscape shows significant contributions from major producers such as Saudi Arabia and the USA. Recent data indicates a decrease in production from DoC countries, which may impact overall supply levels. The focus remains on the performance of key players and their ability to adjust output in response to market conditions.
Demand analysis reveals growth primarily in non-OECD regions, with countries like India and China leading the way. Challenges remain in OECD regions, where demand growth is sluggish. The overall demand trajectory suggests a robust increase in consumption, particularly in emerging markets.
The comparison between Non-DoC and DoC production levels highlights a significant disparity, with Non-DoC countries expected to contribute more to global supply. This dynamic raises questions about OPEC's influence on market prices and the sustainability of their production agreements.
OPEC's current market position is characterized by cautious optimism, as the organization navigates declining prices while managing production levels. The likely policy direction will focus on stabilizing prices through coordinated production adjustments among member countries.
Looking ahead, indicators suggest that if demand continues to rise as projected, OPEC may need to reconsider its production strategies to avoid a supply crunch. Market participants should monitor geopolitical developments and economic trends that could influence oil prices in the coming months.
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-09-09
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 1,957,115 contracts (-30,746)
Managed Money Net Position: 10,002 contracts (0.5% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -17,321 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 301,400 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -403,555 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-19 | $63.51 | $61.66 | $65.36 |
| 2025-09-20 | $63.46 | $61.61 | $65.31 |
| 2025-09-21 | $63.42 | $61.57 | $65.27 |
| 2025-09-22 | $63.46 | $61.61 | $65.31 |
| 2025-09-23 | $63.49 | $61.64 | $65.34 |
The recent decline in crude oil prices reflects a bearish sentiment in the market, with the OPEC Reference Basket dropping to an average of $68.98/b. The Brent-WTI spread currently at $3.90 suggests ongoing supply/demand dynamics favoring Brent, but narrowing spreads indicate a potential convergence in market conditions.
Traders should consider the technical support levels around $62.00 for WTI and $66.00 for Brent, while potential resistance can be observed near $70.00. The market remains volatile with a bearish sentiment score of -0.600, indicating caution in trading strategies.
The current market conditions necessitate a review of production planning and hedging strategies. With crude oil inventories in the OECD showing a slight increase, producers should be prepared for potential price fluctuations driven by inventory levels and demand shifts.
The balance of supply and demand indicates a slight upward revision for DoC crude demand in 2025, reaching 42.6 mb/d, suggesting stable demand for producers. However, the overall market sentiment remains cautious, influenced by geopolitical concerns and economic forecasts.
Consumers should brace for potential input cost fluctuations as crude prices have recently declined. The $64.05 for WTI and $67.95 for Brent may affect procurement strategies. The supply reliability risks are heightened by geopolitical tensions, particularly surrounding Russian supply dynamics.
With product imports declining and refinery margins under pressure, consumers in the refining sector may need to adjust their hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating product availability and pricing.
The Crude Oil market is currently facing a bearish sentiment with a sentiment score of -0.600. Key driving factors include a slight downturn in global economic growth forecasts and a decline in demand from OECD countries.
The fundamental balance suggests stable demand growth in non-OECD regions, but the overall outlook remains cautious. Analysts should monitor positioning data, as managed money positions are weakening, indicating potential market reversals that could impact future price movements.