MA(9): $63.23
MA(20): $63.6
MACD: -0.3028
Signal: -0.47
Days since crossover: 4
Value: 48.74
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 1,086
Avg (20d): 220,143
Ratio: 0.0
%K: 46.29
%D: 56.7
ADX: 9.36
+DI: 16.17
-DI: 16.28
Value: -53.71
Upper: 65.41
Middle: 63.6
Lower: 61.79
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13482.0 | 13495.0 | 13300.0 | 12733.33 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5692.0 | 6271.0 | 6867.0 | 6595.33 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5277.0 | 2745.0 | 3305.0 | 4398.67 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16424.0 | 16818.0 | 16759.0 | 16378.67 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 415.0 | 3526.0 | 3562.0 | 2196.67 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 415361.0 | 424646.0 | 419143.0 | 422247.67 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1688149.0 | 1686474.0 | 1659136.0 | 1649988.67 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 217650.0 | 219997.0 | 221552.0 | 218569.0 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 124684.0 | 120638.0 | 125023.0 | 120688.0 |
Brent crude (NOV 25) settled at $67.95, change $-0.52. WTI crude (OCT 25) settled at $64.05, change $-0.47. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.9 (Brent premium of $3.90). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
OPEC's sentiment appears cautious, reflecting concerns over market stability amid fluctuating oil prices and mixed economic growth forecasts.
| Metric | Value/Forecast | Source/Comment |
|---|---|---|
| World Oil Demand Growth (2025) | 1.3 mb/d | Unchanged from last month’s assessment |
| World Oil Demand Growth (2026) | 1.3 mb/d | Unchanged from last month’s assessment |
| Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) | 0.8 mb/d | Revised down by 0.1 mb/d |
| Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) | 0.8 mb/d | Revised down by 0.1 mb/d |
| Call on OPEC Crude (2025) | 42.6 mb/d | Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d |
| Call on OPEC Crude (2026) | 42.9 mb/d | Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d |
| OECD Commercial Stock Deviation | 173 mb below 2015–2019 average | As of March |
| Compliance Levels with Production Agreements | N/A | Not Mentioned |
OPEC maintains a focus on market stability and is closely monitoring global economic indicators and oil demand trends. The organization is prepared to adjust its production strategies to respond to changing market conditions and ensure a balanced supply-demand dynamic.
"The global economy continues to demonstrate a steady growth trend despite recent tariff-related developments."
"Demand for DoC crude is revised upward, indicating a positive outlook for OPEC's market position."
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-09-09
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 1,957,115 contracts (-30,746)
Managed Money Net Position: 10,002 contracts (0.5% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -17,321 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 301,400 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -403,555 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-18 | $64.1 | $62.26 | $65.94 |
| 2025-09-19 | $64.03 | $62.19 | $65.88 |
| 2025-09-20 | $63.99 | $62.14 | $65.83 |
| 2025-09-21 | $63.92 | $62.08 | $65.77 |
| 2025-09-22 | $63.95 | $62.11 | $65.79 |
The recent bearish sentiment indicated by a sentiment score of -0.400 suggests caution in the market. The decline in both the $5.01 for ICE Brent and $4.98 for NYMEX WTI indicates potential resistance levels around $66.46 and $62.96 respectively. Traders should closely monitor the Brent-WTI spread of $3.90, which reflects ongoing supply/demand dynamics and geopolitical factors. The narrowing of the spread might present short-term opportunities for trades, especially if volatility increases due to geopolitical tensions or unexpected supply disruptions.
The projected growth in global oil demand of 1.3 mb/d in 2025 remains stable, but producers should be mindful of the bearish market sentiment and declining inventory levels. With OECD commercial crude stocks at 1,323 mb, which is 139 mb below the 2015–2019 average, production planning should account for potential fluctuations in demand. Hedging strategies may need to be adjusted in response to the volatile geopolitical landscape and the current $62.96 WTI price, which may impact revenue forecasts.
With the current $67.95 for Brent and $64.05 for WTI, consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations as market volatility persists. The bearish sentiment and declining refinery margins indicate that procurement strategies should focus on securing supplies to mitigate risks associated with geopolitical tensions and fluctuating inventory levels. The recent decline in U.S. crude imports further emphasizes the need for reliable supply channels, especially as global demand is projected to remain stable.
The Crude Oil market is currently influenced by a mix of bearish sentiment and stable demand growth forecasts. Key driving factors include the 1.3 mb/d increase in global oil demand and the decline in OECD crude stocks. The positioning data from CFTC indicates a weakening bullish trend among managed money, suggesting a potential shift in market dynamics. Analysts should focus on the implications of geopolitical risks and the ongoing adjustments in production levels from OPEC and non-OPEC countries, as these will be crucial in forecasting future price movements.