Crude Oil Radar

2025-09-09 23:49

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 09/09/2025 Focus: Crude Oil
Crude Oil is centered around the 63.80 magnet - and appears to be consolidating before a move either up or down - the signals are pointing down. When we evaluate the softness on Diesel Stocks combined with OPEC+ incremental barrels and soft demand (although higher than expected). Near term I think a retest of 61.64 before dropping to the 50s (this is what we have been expecting for the near term). In 2026, I think we are looking more at a long term strength in prices for the next several years.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-09-09 23:46:36 Length: 480 chars
Crude Oil is currently hovering around the $63.80 mark, consolidating before a potential move, likely downward due to soft diesel stock levels and OPEC+ increasing supply. A retest of $61.64 is anticipated, possibly leading to prices in the $50s. However, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are adding a risk premium, which could cushion declines. Looking ahead to 2026, there's a bullish outlook for long-term price strength. Keep an eye on these dynamics as they unfold...

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -2/5
Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $66.02 $0.52
WTI: $62.26 $0.39
Spread: $3.76 (Brent premium of $3.76)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BULLISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 27,323
Weekly Change: 2,702

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $63.2
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $63.68

MA(20): $63.5

Current Price is 63.2, 9 day MA 63.68, 20 day MA 63.5

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: -0.6048

Signal: -0.5791

Days since crossover: 2

MACD crossed the line 2 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 46.21

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 46.21 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 9,939

Avg (20d): 210,010

Ratio: 0.05

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 38.21

%D: 21.69

Stochastic %K: 38.21, %D: 21.69. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 12.27

+DI: 15.33

-DI: 19.24

ADX: 12.27 (+DI: 15.33, -DI: 19.24). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -61.79

Williams %R: -61.79 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 65.26

Middle: 63.5

Lower: 61.74

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 65.26, Middle: 63.5, Lower: 61.74

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13423.0 13439.0 13300.0 12733.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 6742.0 6234.0 6560.0 6447.0
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3884.0 3810.0 3671.0 4040.33
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 16869.0 16880.0 16864.0 16484.0
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2858.0 2424.0 2889.0 2406.67
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 420707.0 418292.0 425183.0 420712.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1670530.0 1662919.0 1656136.0 1641000.33
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 218539.0 222334.0 218394.0 216265.33
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 115923.0 114242.0 123086.0 117706.0

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (NOV 25) settled at $66.02, change $+0.52. WTI crude (OCT 25) settled at $62.26, change $+0.39. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.76 (Brent premium of $3.76). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$66.02
0.52
(NOV 25)

WTI Crude

$62.26
0.39
(OCT 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$3.76
Brent premium of $3.76

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious sentiment regarding the oil market, reflecting concerns over supply adjustments and economic growth forecasts while remaining optimistic about short-term demand recovery.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices and market adjustments.
  • Steady global economic growth despite recent challenges.
  • Stable growth in world oil demand for 2025 and 2026.
  • Revisions in non-OPEC liquids supply growth forecasts.
  • Fluctuations in refining margins and product markets.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth 2025 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth 2026 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth 2025 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth 2026 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude 2025 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude 2026 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015–2019 average As of March
Compliance Levels N/A Not Mentioned

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC remains committed to ensuring market stability and balancing supply and demand dynamics. The organization acknowledges the need for careful monitoring of global economic indicators and production adjustments to maintain a sustainable oil market environment.

Direct Quotes

"The demand for DoC crude has shown a positive revision, indicating a stronger market outlook for the coming years."
"Despite challenges, the global economy continues to grow, which bodes well for oil demand."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-09-02

Managed Money

27,323
Change: +2,702
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

299,736
Change: +1,608
15.1% of OI

Swap Dealers

-421,131
Change: +7,868
-21.2% of OI

Open Interest

1,987,861
Change: 75,307

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-09-02

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,987,861 contracts (+75,307)

Managed Money Net Position: 27,323 contracts (1.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +2,702 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 299,736 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -421,131 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BULLISH
Average Polarity: 0.7
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 43
Last Updated: 2025-09-09 23:49:09

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

0.7

Top News Topics

Supply (13 articles)

Geopolitical (4 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

97.77
Daily: 0.32 (0.33%)
Weekly: -0.37 (-0.38%)

US_10Y

4.07
Daily: 0.03 (0.69%)
Weekly: -0.14 (-3.25%)

SP500

6512.61
Daily: 17.46 (0.27%)
Weekly: 64.35 (1.0%)

VIX

15.04
Daily: -0.07 (-0.46%)
Weekly: -1.31 (-8.01%)

GOLD

3673.2
Daily: 35.1 (0.96%)
Weekly: 80.0 (2.23%)

COPPER

4.58
Daily: 0.09 (2.06%)
Weekly: 0.02 (0.54%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $63.2
Closest Support: $61.45 2.77% below current price
Closest Resistance: $65.45 3.56% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $61.45 Support
0.236 $65.45 Resistance
0.382 $67.92
0.5 $69.93
0.618 $71.93
0.786 $74.77
1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $83.01
1.618 $88.88
2.0 $95.35
2.618 $105.83

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $62.63
Forecast Generated: 2025-09-09 23:49:12
Next Trading Day: UP 0.23%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-09-10 $62.78 $60.91 $64.64
2025-09-11 $62.84 $60.97 $64.7
2025-09-12 $62.91 $61.04 $64.78
2025-09-13 $62.87 $61.0 $64.74
2025-09-14 $62.84 $60.98 $64.71

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.23% for the next trading day (2025-09-10), reaching $62.78.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-09-10 and 2025-09-14.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~5.9% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent decline in crude oil prices indicates potential volatility in the short term. The $66.02 for Brent and $62.26 for WTI suggest that traders should watch for price support around these levels, especially considering the Fibonacci retracement levels that may emerge as crucial indicators. The $3.76 Brent-WTI spread reflects ongoing supply/demand dynamics and could signal opportunities for arbitrage. With the managed money positioning increasing to 27,323 contracts, there is a strengthening sentiment that may lead to upward price movement if current trends continue. However, traders should remain cautious of geopolitical risks that could impact volatility.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The slight upward revision in demand forecasts for DoC crude to 42.6 mb/d in 2025 suggests a stable market for producers. However, the decline in crude production from DoC countries and the increase in US and non-DoC liquids supply may necessitate adjustments in production planning and hedging strategies. The increase in OECD commercial oil inventories to 2,740 mb could pressure prices and necessitate a review of inventory management practices. Producers should also consider the implications of market sentiment, as current optimism may influence operational strategies.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

With crude prices hovering around $66.02 for Brent and $62.26 for WTI, consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs. The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could pose supply reliability risks, impacting procurement strategies. The recent decline in US product imports and the 1.7 mb/d average may lead to tighter product availability, necessitating proactive procurement measures. As refinery margins recover in the USGC, consumers should also evaluate potential impacts on pricing and supply agreements.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by strong managed money positioning and a decline in OPEC production, suggesting a complex interplay of factors influencing price dynamics. The steady growth in global oil demand juxtaposed with increasing non-DoC supply highlights potential market shifts. Analysts should focus on the geopolitical landscape and its impact on price volatility, while also monitoring the overall market sentiment reflected in the positive sentiment score of +0.700. Future outlooks may hinge on the balance between supply adjustments and demand growth.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

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