Crude Oil Radar

2025-09-08 23:49

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 09/08/2025 Focus: Crude Oil
Crude Oil is centered around the 63.80 magnet - and appears to be consolidating before a move either up or down - the signals are pointing down. When we evaluate the softness on Diesel Stocks combined with OPEC+ incremental barrels and soft demand (although higher than expected). Near term I think a retest of 61.64 before dropping to the 50s (this is what we have been expecting for the near term). In 2026, I think we are looking more at a long term strength in prices for the next several years.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-09-08 23:46:42 Length: 480 chars
Crude Oil is currently hovering around the $63.80 level, showing signs of consolidation before a potential move. With weakening diesel stocks and OPEC+ increasing output, short-term signals lean bearish, suggesting a possible retest of $61.64 before a drop into the $50s. However, longer-term projections indicate a bullish trend for 2026. Recent articles highlight that oil prices have risen despite increased OPEC+ production, indicating market resilience amidst mixed demand...

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -2/5
Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $65.5 $1.49
WTI: $61.87 $1.61
Spread: $3.63 (Brent premium of $3.63)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 27,323
Weekly Change: 2,702

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $62.55
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $63.72

MA(20): $63.55

Current Price is 62.55, 9 day MA 63.72, 20 day MA 63.55

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: -0.6029

Signal: -0.5681

Days since crossover: 1

MACD crossed the line 1 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 43.26

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 43.26 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 5,638

Avg (20d): 209,671

Ratio: 0.03

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 24.02

%D: 22.32

Stochastic %K: 24.02, %D: 22.32. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 12.34

+DI: 16.56

-DI: 20.79

ADX: 12.34 (+DI: 16.56, -DI: 20.79). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -75.98

Williams %R: -75.98 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 65.28

Middle: 63.55

Lower: 61.82

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 65.28, Middle: 63.55, Lower: 61.82

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13423.0 13439.0 13300.0 12733.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 6742.0 6234.0 6560.0 6447.0
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3884.0 3810.0 3671.0 4040.33
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 16869.0 16880.0 16864.0 16484.0
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2858.0 2424.0 2889.0 2406.67
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 420707.0 418292.0 425183.0 420712.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1670530.0 1662919.0 1656136.0 1641000.33
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 218539.0 222334.0 218394.0 216265.33
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 115923.0 114242.0 123086.0 117706.0

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (NOV 25) settled at $65.5, change $-1.49. WTI crude (OCT 25) settled at $61.87, change $-1.61. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.63 (Brent premium of $3.63). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$65.5
1.49
(NOV 25)

WTI Crude

$61.87
1.61
(OCT 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$3.63
Brent premium of $3.63

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC's sentiment appears cautious, reflecting concerns over supply adjustments and fluctuating demand amidst a backdrop of economic uncertainties.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Steady global economic growth forecasts, with minor revisions.
  • Stable world oil demand growth projections for 2025 and 2026.
  • Non-OPEC liquids supply growth forecasts revised downwards.
  • Fluctuations in refining margins and tanker freight rates.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015–2019 average As of March
Compliance Levels N/A Not Mentioned

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC maintains a focus on market stability, with an emphasis on monitoring global economic indicators and adjusting production levels as necessary to balance supply and demand dynamics. The organization remains vigilant in its efforts to support oil prices and ensure a stable market environment.

Direct Quotes

"The demand for DoC crude is showing signs of resilience, prompting a cautious optimism in our outlook for the coming years."
"Despite the fluctuations in crude prices, we are committed to maintaining a balanced approach to production adjustments."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-09-02

Managed Money

27,323
Change: +2,702
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

299,736
Change: +1,608
15.1% of OI

Swap Dealers

-421,131
Change: +7,868
-21.2% of OI

Open Interest

1,987,861
Change: 75,307

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-09-02

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,987,861 contracts (+75,307)

Managed Money Net Position: 27,323 contracts (1.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +2,702 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 299,736 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -421,131 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.6
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 36
Last Updated: 2025-09-08 23:49:09

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.6

Top News Topics

Supply (8 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

97.42
Daily: -0.35 (-0.36%)
Weekly: -0.98 (-1.0%)

US_10Y

4.05
Daily: -0.04 (-0.98%)
Weekly: -0.23 (-5.4%)

SP500

6495.15
Daily: 13.65 (0.21%)
Weekly: 79.61 (1.24%)

VIX

15.11
Daily: -0.07 (-0.46%)
Weekly: -2.06 (-12.0%)

GOLD

3683.0
Daily: 69.8 (1.93%)
Weekly: 133.6 (3.76%)

COPPER

4.57
Daily: 0.08 (1.89%)
Weekly: -0.0 (-0.05%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $62.55
Closest Support: $61.45 1.76% below current price
Closest Resistance: $65.45 4.64% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $61.45 Support
0.236 $65.45 Resistance
0.382 $67.92
0.5 $69.93
0.618 $71.93
0.786 $74.77
1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $83.01
1.618 $88.88
2.0 $95.35
2.618 $105.83

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $62.26
Forecast Generated: 2025-09-08 23:49:11
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.05%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-09-09 $62.23 $60.33 $64.12
2025-09-10 $62.38 $60.48 $64.27
2025-09-11 $62.44 $60.55 $64.33
2025-09-12 $62.52 $60.63 $64.42
2025-09-13 $62.5 $60.6 $64.39

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.05% for the next trading day (2025-09-09), reaching $62.23.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-09-09 and 2025-09-13.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~6.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent decline in crude oil prices, with $68.98 for the OPEC Reference Basket and $66.46 for ICE Brent, indicates potential bearish sentiment in the market. The narrowing of the Brent-WTI spread to $3.50 suggests that while short-term optimism exists, traders should remain cautious about volatility driven by geopolitical factors and OPEC’s production adjustments.

Fibonacci retracement levels may provide support around $62.00 for WTI, while resistance may be encountered at $66.50 for Brent. Traders should watch for potential price reversals as managed money positions are showing signs of bullish sentiment, with an increase in net positioning by +2,702 contracts.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The balance of supply and demand indicates a slight upward revision in demand for DoC crude, projected at 42.6 mb/d. However, with non-DoC liquids supply growth forecasted at 0.8 mb/d, producers should assess their hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating prices and potential oversupply.

The increase in OECD commercial crude stocks by 21.4 mb highlights the need for careful production planning to avoid excess inventory that could pressure prices further. Maintaining flexibility in production levels will be key in navigating this uncertain market landscape.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

The current market conditions suggest potential input cost fluctuations for consumers, particularly with WTI prices settling around $61.87 and Brent at $65.50. As refinery margins in the USGC show signs of recovery, consumers should prepare for possible increases in procurement costs, especially in gasoline and jet fuel sectors.

Additionally, geopolitical risks and fluctuating inventory levels could impact supply reliability, necessitating a proactive approach to procurement and potential hedging to manage future cost exposures.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market reflects a bearish sentiment with a declining price trend and mixed signals from supply and demand forecasts. The anticipated growth in global oil demand remains stable at 1.3 mb/d, yet supply from non-DoC countries is expected to outpace this growth, indicating potential oversupply issues.

The sentiment analysis shows a negative outlook, with a sentiment score of -0.600, suggesting that external factors, including OPEC’s production decisions and geopolitical dynamics, will play significant roles in shaping the market's trajectory. Analysts should monitor these factors closely to anticipate shifts in market conditions.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

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