Crude Oil Radar

2025-09-07 23:49

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 09/07/2025 Focus: Crude Oil
Crude Oil is centered around the 63.80 magnet - and appears to be consolidating before a move either up or down - the signals are pointing down. When we evaluate the softness on Diesel Stocks combined with OPEC+ incremental barrels and soft demand (although higher than expected). Near term I think a retest of 61.64 before dropping to the 50s (this is what we have been expecting for the near term). In 2026, I think we are looking more at a long term strength in prices for the next several years.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-09-07 23:46:19 Length: 480 chars
Crude Oil is currently hovering around the $63.80 level, facing downward pressure due to soft diesel stocks, OPEC+'s planned output increases, and mixed demand signals. The market is consolidating, with projections suggesting a potential retest of $61.64 before possibly dipping into the $50s. Looking forward, while short-term trends appear bearish, there's a contrarian view of long-term price strength expected by 2026. Keep an eye on OPEC+ decisions and economic indicators...

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -2/5
Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $65.5 $1.49
WTI: $61.87 $1.61
Spread: $3.63 (Brent premium of $3.63)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 27,323
Weekly Change: 2,702

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $62.61
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $63.73

MA(20): $63.55

Current Price is 62.61, 9 day MA 63.73, 20 day MA 63.55

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: -0.5981

Signal: -0.5671

Days since crossover: 1

MACD crossed the line 1 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 43.52

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 43.52 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 16,090

Avg (20d): 208,051

Ratio: 0.08

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 25.33

%D: 22.75

Stochastic %K: 25.33, %D: 22.75. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 12.34

+DI: 16.5

-DI: 20.72

ADX: 12.34 (+DI: 16.5, -DI: 20.72). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -74.67

Williams %R: -74.67 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 65.27

Middle: 63.55

Lower: 61.83

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 65.27, Middle: 63.55, Lower: 61.83

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13423.0 13439.0 13300.0 12733.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 6742.0 6234.0 6560.0 6447.0
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3884.0 3810.0 3671.0 4040.33
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 16869.0 16880.0 16864.0 16484.0
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2858.0 2424.0 2889.0 2406.67
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 420707.0 418292.0 425183.0 420712.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1670530.0 1662919.0 1656136.0 1641000.33
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 218539.0 222334.0 218394.0 216265.33
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 115923.0 114242.0 123086.0 117706.0

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (NOV 25) settled at $65.5, change $-1.49. WTI crude (OCT 25) settled at $61.87, change $-1.61. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.63 (Brent premium of $3.63). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$65.5
1.49
(NOV 25)

WTI Crude

$61.87
1.61
(OCT 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$3.63
Brent premium of $3.63

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious sentiment regarding the oil market, reflecting concerns over demand growth and supply adjustments amidst fluctuating prices.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Steady global economic growth with slight revisions in forecasts.
  • Stable world oil demand growth projections for 2025 and 2026.
  • Non-OPEC liquids supply growth forecast revised downwards.
  • Fluctuations in refining margins and tanker freight rates.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015–2019 average As of March
Compliance Levels N/A Not Mentioned

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC remains focused on maintaining market stability and is closely monitoring global economic indicators and oil demand trends. The organization is prepared to adjust its production strategies in response to market dynamics to ensure a balanced supply-demand scenario.

Direct Quotes

"The global economy continues to demonstrate a steady growth trend despite recent tariff-related developments."
"Demand for DoC crude is revised upward, reflecting a positive outlook for OPEC's market position."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-09-02

Managed Money

27,323
Change: +2,702
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

299,736
Change: +1,608
15.1% of OI

Swap Dealers

-421,131
Change: +7,868
-21.2% of OI

Open Interest

1,987,861
Change: 75,307

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-09-02

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,987,861 contracts (+75,307)

Managed Money Net Position: 27,323 contracts (1.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +2,702 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 299,736 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -421,131 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.6
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 26
Last Updated: 2025-09-07 23:48:43

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.6

Top News Topics

Supply (5 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

97.85
Daily: 0.08 (0.08%)
Weekly: -0.55 (-0.56%)

US_10Y

4.09
Daily: -0.09 (-2.16%)
Weekly: -0.14 (-3.34%)

SP500

6481.5
Daily: -20.58 (-0.32%)
Weekly: 21.24 (0.33%)

VIX

15.18
Daily: -0.12 (-0.78%)
Weekly: -0.18 (-1.17%)

GOLD

3628.5
Daily: 15.3 (0.42%)
Weekly: 79.1 (2.23%)

COPPER

4.56
Daily: 0.08 (1.75%)
Weekly: -0.01 (-0.19%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $62.61
Closest Support: $61.45 1.85% below current price
Closest Resistance: $65.45 4.54% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $61.45 Support
0.236 $65.45 Resistance
0.382 $67.92
0.5 $69.93
0.618 $71.93
0.786 $74.77
1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $83.01
1.618 $88.88
2.0 $95.35
2.618 $105.83

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $61.87
Forecast Generated: 2025-09-07 23:48:44
Next Trading Day: UP 0.02%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-09-06 $61.88 $59.75 $64.01
2025-09-07 $61.85 $59.72 $63.98
2025-09-08 $62.0 $59.87 $64.13
2025-09-09 $62.07 $59.94 $64.2
2025-09-10 $62.16 $60.03 $64.29

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.02% for the next trading day (2025-09-06), reaching $61.88.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-09-06 and 2025-09-10.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~6.9% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

Current market sentiment is bearish with a sentiment score of -0.700. The Brent-WTI spread at $3.63 indicates a narrowing spread, reflecting shifts in supply/demand dynamics. Traders should watch for key support levels around $62.00 for WTI and $66.00 for Brent, while resistance may be seen at $65.50 for Brent and $63.00 for WTI. The short-term opportunities may arise from volatility as the market reacts to OPEC's output adjustments and geopolitical developments.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

With crude inventories increasing and a balanced supply/demand forecast, producers should consider adjusting production levels to optimize profitability. The hedging strategies should be revisited in light of the current bearish market sentiment. Monitoring current inventory levels is crucial, as OECD commercial crude stocks are 139 mb below the 2015–2019 average, indicating potential supply tightness in the future.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs as WTI and Brent prices remain volatile. The geopolitical risks associated with supply reliability should be monitored closely, especially with current bearish market sentiment. Given the recent trends in product imports, consumers may want to consider strategies for procurement to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating prices and supply disruptions.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market shows a complex interplay of factors, with a bearish sentiment prevailing due to declining prices and increased inventories. Key driving factors include fundamentals of supply and demand, particularly the impact of OPEC's output decisions and geopolitical tensions. Analysts should remain vigilant for any shifts in machine learning forecasts, as they may indicate potential outlook changes amidst the current market dynamics.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

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