Crude Oil Radar

Published: 09/05/2025 Focus: Crude Oil

Crude Oil is centered around the 63.80 magnet - and appears to be consolidating before a move either up or down - the signals are pointing down. When we evaluate the softness on Diesel Stocks combined with OPEC+ incremental barrels and soft demand (although higher than expected). Near term I think a retest of 61.64 before dropping to the 50s (this is what we have been expecting for the near term). In 2026, I think we are looking more at a long term strength in prices for the next several years.

Updated: 2025-09-05 23:46:24 Length: 480 chars

Crude Oil is currently hovering around the $63.80 mark, showing signs of consolidation before a potential breakout. However, indicators suggest a bearish outlook, driven by weak diesel stock levels and OPEC+'s intent to increase production. Recent reports highlight that prices have plummeted to a 14-week low, reflecting the impact of soft demand and U.S. crude stock builds. While short-term forecasts lean towards a retest of $61.64, long-term projections hint at price reco...

Technical Outlook

Neutral

Score: -1/5

Short: SELL | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $66.99 $0.61

WTI: $63.48 $0.49

Spread: $3.51 (Brent premium of $3.51)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)

Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 27,323

Weekly Change: 2,702

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -1 (Neutral)

Current Price: $61.97

Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $63.98

MA(20): $63.62

Current Price is 61.97, 9 day MA 63.98, 20 day MA 63.62

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.5403

Signal: -0.5578

Days since crossover: 9

MACD crossed the line 9 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 40.48

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 40.48 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

HIGHER

Current: 268,120

Avg (20d): 224,215

Ratio: 1.2

Volume is higher versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 11.35

%D: 30.54

Stochastic %K: 11.35, %D: 30.54. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 12.42

+DI: 17.16

-DI: 21.55

ADX: 12.42 (+DI: 17.16, -DI: 21.55). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERSOLD

Value: -88.65

Williams %R: -88.65 (oversold)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 65.27

Middle: 63.62

Lower: 61.97

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 65.27, Middle: 63.62, Lower: 61.97

Category	Current	Last Week	Last Year	3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day)	13423.0	13439.0	13300.0	12733.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	6742.0	6234.0	6560.0	6447.0
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	3884.0	3810.0	3671.0	4040.33
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day)	16869.0	16880.0	16864.0	16484.0
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	2858.0	2424.0	2889.0	2406.67
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	420707.0	418292.0	425183.0	420712.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	1670530.0	1662919.0	1656136.0	1641000.33
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	218539.0	222334.0	218394.0	216265.33
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	115923.0	114242.0	123086.0	117706.0

International Price Summary

Brent crude (NOV 25) settled at $66.99, change $-0.61. WTI crude (OCT 25) settled at $63.48, change $-0.49. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.51 (Brent premium of $3.51). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$66.99

0.61

(NOV 25)

WTI Crude

$63.48

0.49

(OCT 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$3.51

Brent premium of $3.51

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious optimism regarding the market outlook, despite recent price declines and mixed economic forecasts.

Key Themes

Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
Steady global economic growth with slight revisions in forecasts.
Stable world oil demand growth projections for 2025 and 2026.
Non-OPEC liquids supply growth forecast revised downwards.
Mixed performance in refining margins and product markets.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric	Value/Forecast	Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025)	1.3 mb/d	Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026)	1.3 mb/d	Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025)	0.8 mb/d	Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026)	0.8 mb/d	Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025)	42.6 mb/d	Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026)	42.9 mb/d	Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation from 5-year average	-173 mb	As of March
Compliance Levels with Production Agreements	N/A	Not Mentioned

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC remains focused on maintaining market stability through careful monitoring of supply and demand dynamics, while also being ready to adjust production levels in response to changing market conditions. The organization emphasizes the importance of cooperation among member countries to navigate the current challenges in the oil market.

Direct Quotes (Optional)

"The demand for DoC crude is revised upward, reflecting a positive adjustment in our outlook for the coming years."

Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening

Positioning: Normal Range

Report Date: 2025-09-02

Managed Money

27,323

Change: +2,702

1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

299,736

Change: +1,608

15.1% of OI

Swap Dealers

-421,131

Change: +7,868

-21.2% of OI

Open Interest

1,987,861

Change: 75,307

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-09-02

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,987,861 contracts (+75,307)

Managed Money Net Position: 27,323 contracts (1.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +2,702 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 299,736 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -421,131 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH

Average Polarity: -0.75

Confidence: 1.0

Articles Analyzed: 53

Last Updated: 2025-09-05 23:48:49

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.75

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive

Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices

Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals

Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand

Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

97.74

Daily: -0.61 (-0.62%)

Weekly: -0.03 (-0.03%)

US_10Y

4.09

Daily: -0.09 (-2.16%)

Weekly: -0.14 (-3.34%)

SP500

6481.5

Daily: -20.58 (-0.32%)

Weekly: 21.24 (0.33%)

VIX

15.18

Daily: -0.12 (-0.78%)

Weekly: -0.18 (-1.17%)

GOLD

3639.8

Daily: 74.0 (2.08%)

Weekly: 166.1 (4.78%)

COPPER

4.54

Daily: 0.06 (1.24%)

Weekly: 0.03 (0.55%)

Current Price: $61.97

Closest Support: $61.45 0.84% below current price

Closest Resistance: $65.45 5.62% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $61.45 Support

0.236 $65.45 Resistance

0.382 $67.92

0.5 $69.93

0.618 $71.93

0.786 $74.77

1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $83.01

1.618 $88.88

2.0 $95.35

2.618 $105.83

Current Price: $63.48

Forecast Generated: 2025-09-05 23:48:51

Next Trading Day: UP 0.01%

Date	Prediction	Lower Bound	Upper Bound
2025-09-05	$63.49	$61.34	$65.63
2025-09-06	$63.48	$61.34	$65.63
2025-09-07	$63.44	$61.29	$65.59
2025-09-08	$63.55	$61.4	$65.7
2025-09-09	$63.58	$61.43	$65.73

ML Insights

Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
The model predicts a price increase of ~0.01% for the next trading day (2025-09-05), reaching $63.49.
The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-09-05 and 2025-09-09.
The average confidence interval width is ~6.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent bearish sentiment in the market, reflected by a sentiment score of -0.750, indicates potential downward pressure on prices. The $66.99 for Brent and $63.48 for WTI suggest that traders should be cautious regarding potential volatility in the short term.

The narrowing Brent-WTI spread at $3.51 suggests that while U.S. oil remains competitively priced, external factors may influence price movements. Traders should watch for support levels around Fibonacci retracement levels to gauge market reactions.

The managed money positioning indicates a bullish trend with a net position of 27,323 contracts, which could signal short-term opportunities if price trends align with speculator sentiment.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

With global oil demand expected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2025, producers should consider adjusting their production plans accordingly. However, the bearish sentiment in the market and recent declines in crude prices highlight the need for cautious hedging strategies to mitigate risks.

The 2,740 mb of OECD commercial oil inventories indicates a slight oversupply, which could impact pricing strategies. Producers should monitor these inventory levels closely as they may influence market sentiment and operational decisions.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs, particularly with WTI and Brent prices currently at $63.48 and $66.99, respectively. The geopolitical risks and supply reliability issues highlighted by the current market sentiment may necessitate strategic procurement approaches.

The decline in U.S. crude imports and the 4.1 mb/d of crude exports suggest a tightening supply scenario, which may further impact product pricing. Consumers should consider hedging strategies to protect against potential price increases in the coming months.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a bearish outlook, driven by declining prices and increasing inventories. Key factors include a global oil demand growth forecast of 1.3 mb/d juxtaposed with a surge in supply from non-OPEC countries.

Additionally, the managed money positioning suggests that traders are cautiously optimistic, although the overall sentiment remains negative. Analysts should monitor geopolitical developments and inventory levels closely, as these will be critical in forecasting potential market shifts.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.