Crude Oil Radar

Published: 09/01/2025 Focus: Crude Oil

Crude Oil is centered around the 63.80 magnet - and appears to be consolidating before a move either up or down - the signals are pointing down. When we evaluate the softness on Diesel Stocks combined with OPEC+ incremental barrels and soft demand (although higher than expected). Near term I think a retest of 61.64 before dropping to the 50s (this is what we have been expecting for the near term). In 2026, I think we are looking more at a long term strength in prices for the next several years.

Updated: 2025-09-01 23:46:33 Length: 480 chars

Crude Oil is currently hovering around the $63.80 mark, showing signs of consolidation. With bearish signals pointing downwards, a retest of $61.64 seems likely before potentially dropping into the $50s. Weak diesel stocks, combined with OPEC+ adding barrels and softer demand—albeit better than expected—are contributing to this outlook. However, longer-term projections hint at stronger prices into 2026. Keep an eye on supply disruptions and the influence of a weaker dollar...

Technical Outlook

Neutral

Score: 0/5

Short: BUY | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $68.12 $0.5

WTI: $64.01 $0.59

Spread: $4.11 (Brent premium of $4.11)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)

Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 24,621

Weekly Change: 2,824

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 0 (Neutral)

Current Price: $64.65

Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $63.98

MA(20): $63.77

Current Price is 64.65, 9 day MA 63.98, 20 day MA 63.77

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.454

Signal: -0.6749

Days since crossover: 6

MACD crossed the line 6 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 50.34

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 50.34 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 67,722

Avg (20d): 227,778

Ratio: 0.3

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 85.76

%D: 78.48

Stochastic %K: 85.76, %D: 78.48. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 12.06

+DI: 18.5

-DI: 15.83

ADX: 12.06 (+DI: 18.5, -DI: 15.83). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERBOUGHT

Value: -14.24

Williams %R: -14.24 (overbought)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 65.22

Middle: 63.77

Lower: 62.33

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 65.22, Middle: 63.77, Lower: 62.33

Category	Current (BCFD)	Last Week	Last Year	3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day)	13439.0	13382.0	13400.0	12733.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	6234.0	6497.0	6652.0	6377.67
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	3810.0	4372.0	4045.0	4055.33
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day)	16880.0	17208.0	16689.0	16568.33
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	2424.0	2125.0	2607.0	2322.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	418292.0	420684.0	426029.0	422157.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	1662919.0	1666537.0	1658445.0	1641455.33
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	222334.0	223570.0	220597.0	216760.33
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	114242.0	116028.0	122811.0	117571.67

International Price Summary

Brent crude (OCT 25) settled at $68.12, change $-0.5. WTI crude (OCT 25) settled at $64.01, change $-0.59. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.11 (Brent premium of $4.11). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$68.12

0.5

(OCT 25)

WTI Crude

$64.01

0.59

(OCT 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$4.11

Brent premium of $4.11

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious sentiment regarding the oil market, highlighting concerns over supply and demand dynamics while acknowledging some positive trends in short-term pricing and economic growth.

Key Themes

Crude oil price declines across various benchmarks.
Steady global economic growth despite geopolitical tensions.
Stable world oil demand growth projections for 2025 and 2026.
Adjustments in non-OPEC liquids supply forecasts.
Fluctuations in refining margins and product markets.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric	Value/Forecast	Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025)	1.3 mb/d	Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026)	1.3 mb/d	Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025)	0.8 mb/d	Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026)	0.8 mb/d	Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025)	42.6 mb/d	Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026)	42.9 mb/d	Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation from 5-year average	173 mb below	As of March
Crude Oil Production (April)	40.92 mb/d	Decrease of 106 tb/d m-o-m

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC remains focused on maintaining market stability amid fluctuating oil prices and changing demand dynamics. The organization emphasizes the importance of cooperation among member countries to ensure a balanced market and to address any potential oversupply issues that may arise in the near future.

Direct Quotes

"The global economic growth forecast remains steady, but we must remain vigilant about the potential impacts of geopolitical tensions on oil demand."

"Adjustments in supply forecasts reflect the need for ongoing collaboration among OPEC and non-OPEC producers to navigate market challenges."

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening

Positioning: Normal Range

Report Date: 2025-08-26

Managed Money

24,621

Change: -2,824

1.3% of OI

Producer/Merchant

298,128

Change: +334

15.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-428,999

Change: +9,349

-22.4% of OI

Open Interest

1,912,554

Change: -10,267

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-08-26

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,912,554 contracts (-10,267)

Managed Money Net Position: 24,621 contracts (1.3% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -2,824 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 298,128 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -428,999 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH

Average Polarity: -0.4

Confidence: 1.0

Articles Analyzed: 25

Last Updated: 2025-09-01 23:49:06

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.4

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive

Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices

Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals

Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand

Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

97.77

Daily: 0.0 (0.0%)

Weekly: -0.46 (-0.47%)

US_10Y

4.23

Daily: 0.02 (0.48%)

Weekly: -0.05 (-1.12%)

SP500

6460.26

Daily: -41.6 (-0.64%)

Weekly: 20.94 (0.33%)

VIX

16.12

Daily: 0.76 (4.95%)

Weekly: 1.5 (10.26%)

GOLD

3542.0

Daily: 68.3 (1.97%)

Weekly: 153.4 (4.53%)

COPPER

4.6

Daily: 0.08 (1.87%)

Weekly: 0.15 (3.43%)

Current Price: $64.65

Closest Support: $61.94 4.19% below current price

Closest Resistance: $65.82 1.81% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $61.94 Support

0.236 $65.82 Resistance

0.382 $68.23

0.5 $70.17

0.618 $72.11

0.786 $74.88

1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $82.88

1.618 $88.57

2.0 $94.86

2.618 $105.03

Current Price: $64.01

Forecast Generated: 2025-09-01 23:49:08

Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.07%

Date	Prediction	Lower Bound	Upper Bound
2025-08-30	$63.96	$61.89	$66.04
2025-08-31	$64.02	$61.95	$66.09
2025-09-01	$63.97	$61.9	$66.04
2025-09-02	$63.96	$61.89	$66.03
2025-09-03	$64.0	$61.92	$66.07

ML Insights

Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.07% for the next trading day (2025-08-30), reaching $63.96.
The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-08-30 and 2025-09-03.
The average confidence interval width is ~6.5% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent bearish sentiment in the market, with a sentiment score of -0.600, suggests a cautious approach for traders. The Brent-WTI spread at $4.11 indicates a premium for Brent, reflecting ongoing differences in supply dynamics. The narrowing spread of $3.50/b suggests potential opportunities for short-term trades, especially if the market reacts to geopolitical developments or unexpected supply disruptions. Traders should monitor the support levels around $62.96 (WTI) and $66.46 (Brent) for potential reversals, while keeping an eye on the resistance levels indicated by Fibonacci retracement levels.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The decline in OPEC Reference Basket prices to $68.98/b and the bearish market sentiment may necessitate a reevaluation of production planning and hedging strategies. With OECD commercial crude stocks rising by 21.4 mb, producers should consider adjusting output to prevent oversupply. Given the increased demand forecast for DoC crude to 42.6 mb/d in 2025, producers should focus on optimizing production to meet this demand while managing inventory levels effectively.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should brace for potential fluctuations in input costs, with WTI at $64.01 and Brent at $68.12. The geopolitical risks associated with supply disruptions, particularly from Russia, could impact procurement strategies. Additionally, the decrease in product stocks may lead to tighter supply, urging consumers to consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with price volatility and supply reliability.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently influenced by bearish fundamentals, with declining prices across major benchmarks. Key driving factors include a steady growth forecast for global oil demand, projected at 1.3 mb/d in 2025, contrasted by a revised down supply forecast from non-DoC countries. The mixed sentiment from news articles, particularly regarding supply disruptions and demand concerns, indicates a complex market landscape. Analysts should closely monitor shifts in CFTC positioning, particularly the weakening bullish sentiment among managed money traders, as this could signal impending market adjustments.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.