Crude Oil Radar

2025-08-28 17:57

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 08/28/2025 Focus: Crude Oil
Crude Oil is centered around the 63.80 magnet - and appears to be consolidating before a move either up or down - the signals are pointing down. When we evaluate the softness on Diesel Stocks combined with OPEC+ incremental barrels and soft demand (although higher than expected). Near term I think a retest of 61.64 before dropping to the 50s (this is what we have been expecting for the near term). In 2026, I think we are looking more at a long term strength in prices for the next several years.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-08-28 17:54:03 Length: 480 chars
Crude Oil is currently around the $63.80 mark, consolidating before a possible move, with signals trending downward. Recent softness in diesel stocks and OPEC+'s incremental barrel increases contribute to a bearish outlook, indicating a potential retest of $61.64 before dropping further into the $50s. Geopolitical concerns have provided some temporary support, but easing global supply fears may weigh down prices. Keep an eye on the upcoming market movements as traders navi...

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Neutral
Score: -1/5
Short: BUY | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $68.05 $0.83
WTI: $64.15 $0.9
Spread: $3.9 (Brent premium of $3.90)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BULLISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 27,445
Weekly Change: 21,420

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -1 (Neutral)
Current Price: $64.32
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $63.63

MA(20): $64.01

Current Price is 64.32, 9 day MA 63.63, 20 day MA 64.01

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.6156

Signal: -0.7803

Days since crossover: 4

MACD crossed the line 4 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 48.74

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 48.74 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 193,074

Avg (20d): 245,093

Ratio: 0.79

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 75.32

%D: 62.19

Stochastic %K: 75.32, %D: 62.19. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 13.32

+DI: 17.67

-DI: 17.57

ADX: 13.32 (+DI: 17.67, -DI: 17.57). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -24.68

Williams %R: -24.68 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 66.34

Middle: 64.01

Lower: 61.68

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 66.34, Middle: 64.01, Lower: 61.68

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13439.0 13382.0 13400.0 12733.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 6234.0 6497.0 6652.0 6377.67
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3810.0 4372.0 4045.0 4055.33
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 16880.0 17208.0 16689.0 16568.33
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2424.0 2125.0 2607.0 2322.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 418292.0 420684.0 426029.0 422157.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1662919.0 1666537.0 1658445.0 1641455.33
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 222334.0 223570.0 220597.0 216760.33
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 114242.0 116028.0 122811.0 117571.67

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (OCT 25) settled at $68.05, change $+0.83. WTI crude (OCT 25) settled at $64.15, change $+0.9. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.9 (Brent premium of $3.90). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$68.05
0.83
(OCT 25)

WTI Crude

$64.15
0.9
(OCT 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$3.9
Brent premium of $3.90

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC exhibits a cautious optimism regarding the oil market outlook, despite recent price declines and mixed economic growth forecasts.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Steady global economic growth with minor revisions in forecasts.
  • Stable growth in world oil demand, particularly in non-OECD countries.
  • Adjustments in non-OPEC liquids supply growth forecasts.
  • Mixed performance in refining margins and product markets.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation from 5-year average 173 mb below As of March
Crude Production by DoC Countries (April) 40.92 mb/d Decreased by 106 tb/d m-o-m

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC maintains a focus on market stability, with a commitment to adjusting production levels as necessary to balance supply and demand dynamics. The organization remains vigilant in monitoring global economic indicators and oil market trends to inform future policy decisions.

Direct Quotes

"The market outlook remains cautiously optimistic, reflecting traders' sentiment despite recent price fluctuations."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-08-19

Managed Money

27,445
Change: -21,420
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

297,794
Change: -2,118
15.5% of OI

Swap Dealers

-438,348
Change: +3,854
-22.8% of OI

Open Interest

1,922,821
Change: -88,138

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-08-19

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,922,821 contracts (-88,138)

Managed Money Net Position: 27,445 contracts (1.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -21,420 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 297,794 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -438,348 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BULLISH
Average Polarity: 0.6
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 66
Last Updated: 2025-08-28 17:56:35

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

0.6

Top News Topics

Supply (9 articles)

Demand (4 articles)

Infrastructure (1 articles)

Geopolitical (9 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

97.88
Daily: -0.35 (-0.35%)
Weekly: 0.16 (0.17%)

US_10Y

4.21
Daily: -0.03 (-0.73%)
Weekly: -0.05 (-1.24%)

SP500

6501.86
Daily: 20.46 (0.32%)
Weekly: 34.95 (0.54%)

VIX

14.43
Daily: -0.42 (-2.83%)
Weekly: 0.21 (1.48%)

GOLD

3476.9
Daily: 72.3 (2.12%)
Weekly: 102.5 (3.04%)

COPPER

4.54
Daily: 0.13 (2.94%)
Weekly: 0.1 (2.18%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $64.32
Closest Support: $61.94 3.7% below current price
Closest Resistance: $65.82 2.33% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $61.94 Support
0.236 $65.82 Resistance
0.382 $68.23
0.5 $70.17
0.618 $72.11
0.786 $74.88
1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $82.88
1.618 $88.57
2.0 $94.86
2.618 $105.03

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $64.15
Forecast Generated: 2025-08-28 17:56:38
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.09%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-08-28 $64.1 $62.04 $66.15
2025-08-29 $64.1 $62.05 $66.16
2025-08-30 $64.05 $62.0 $66.11
2025-08-31 $64.12 $62.06 $66.17
2025-09-01 $64.07 $62.02 $66.12

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.09% for the next trading day (2025-08-28), reaching $64.10.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-08-28 and 2025-09-01.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~6.4% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

Current market dynamics suggest bullish sentiment with a sentiment score of +0.600. The Brent-WTI spread is currently at $3.90, indicating a premium for Brent due to stronger global demand dynamics compared to U.S. supply. Traders should monitor the support levels around $62.96 for WTI and $66.46 for Brent, as these may serve as critical points for potential reversals. The narrowing spread reflects a market adjusting to geopolitical tensions and short-term trading opportunities in a backwardated market. Volatility is expected to persist due to mixed signals from supply and demand fundamentals.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

With a projected increase in global oil demand of 1.3 mb/d for 2025, producers should consider adjusting production plans accordingly. The recent decline in inventory levels (OECD commercial oil stocks up by 10.3 mb) suggests a tighter market, which could impact hedging strategies. The sentiment is slightly bearish on supply, with managed money positions showing a decline. Producers may want to focus on optimizing production from key growth areas like the U.S., Brazil, and Canada while keeping an eye on potential inventory fluctuations that could affect profitability.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

As crude prices fluctuate, consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations in the near term. With WTI and Brent prices at $64.15 and $68.05 respectively, procurement strategies should account for hedging against price volatility. The geopolitical landscape remains a concern, particularly with the decline in U.S. crude imports and stable product exports. Consumers in refining and transportation sectors should also consider the implications of supply reliability risks stemming from international supply dynamics and potential disruptions.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The crude oil market is currently characterized by a bullish sentiment overall, despite recent price declines. Key driving factors include stable global demand growth projected at 1.3 mb/d and supply adjustments from non-DoC countries. The technical indicators suggest a mixed outlook, with the Brent-WTI spread reflecting regional supply-demand dynamics. Analysts should remain vigilant regarding geopolitical tensions and their potential to shift market sentiment rapidly. The current market positioning indicates a weakening bullish trend among managed money traders, suggesting potential volatility ahead.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.

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