Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-08-25 23:49

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Neutral
Score: -1/5
Short: SELL | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $67.73 $0.06
WTI: $63.66 $0.14
Spread: $4.07 (Brent premium of $4.07)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BULLISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 27,445
Weekly Change: 21,420

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -1 (Neutral)
Current Price: $64.47
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $63.34

MA(20): $64.83

Current Price is 64.47, 9 day MA 63.34, 20 day MA 64.83

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.8191

Signal: -0.8721

Days since crossover: 1

MACD crossed the line 1 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 48.74

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 48.74 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 7,551

Avg (20d): 252,718

Ratio: 0.03

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 52.6

%D: 38.53

Stochastic %K: 52.6, %D: 38.53. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 15.97

+DI: 17.82

-DI: 18.98

ADX: 15.97 (+DI: 17.82, -DI: 18.98). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -47.4

Williams %R: -47.4 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 69.37

Middle: 64.83

Lower: 60.28

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 69.37, Middle: 64.83, Lower: 60.28

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13382.0 13327.0 13300.0 12733.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 6497.0 6920.0 6285.0 6585.33
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 4372.0 3577.0 3756.0 4160.0
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 17208.0 17180.0 16467.0 16573.33
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2125.0 3343.0 2529.0 2425.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 420684.0 426698.0 430678.0 427076.33
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1666537.0 1670549.0 1663659.0 1645789.33
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 223570.0 226290.0 222203.0 217956.67
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 116028.0 113685.0 126123.0 117031.0

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (OCT 25) settled at $67.73, change $+0.06. WTI crude (OCT 25) settled at $63.66, change $+0.14. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.07 (Brent premium of $4.07). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$67.73
0.06
(OCT 25)

WTI Crude

$63.66
0.14
(OCT 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$4.07
Brent premium of $4.07

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC's sentiment appears cautious, reflecting concerns over fluctuating oil prices and the need for market stability amidst varying global economic conditions.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Steady global economic growth despite recent challenges.
  • Stable growth in world oil demand projected for 2025 and 2026.
  • Revised forecasts for non-OPEC liquids supply growth.
  • Changes in commercial oil inventories and their implications for market balance.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015–2019 average As of March
Crude Production (April) 40.92 mb/d Decrease of 106 tb/d m-o-m

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC remains focused on maintaining market stability and balancing supply and demand dynamics. The organization is closely monitoring global economic indicators and adjusting its forecasts to ensure that its production strategies align with market needs.

Direct Quotes

"The demand for DoC crude is revised upward, indicating a positive outlook for our member countries."
"We must remain vigilant in our approach to production adjustments to support market stability."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-08-19

Managed Money

27,445
Change: -21,420
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

297,794
Change: -2,118
15.5% of OI

Swap Dealers

-438,348
Change: +3,854
-22.8% of OI

Open Interest

1,922,821
Change: -88,138

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-08-19

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,922,821 contracts (-88,138)

Managed Money Net Position: 27,445 contracts (1.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -21,420 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 297,794 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -438,348 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BULLISH
Average Polarity: 0.6
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 28
Last Updated: 2025-08-25 23:49:17

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

0.6

Top News Topics

Geopolitical (3 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.37
Daily: 0.65 (0.67%)
Weekly: 0.1 (0.11%)

US_10Y

4.28
Daily: 0.01 (0.35%)
Weekly: -0.03 (-0.63%)

SP500

6439.32
Daily: -27.59 (-0.43%)
Weekly: 27.95 (0.44%)

VIX

14.79
Daily: 0.57 (4.01%)
Weekly: -0.78 (-5.01%)

GOLD

3421.7
Daily: 47.3 (1.4%)
Weekly: 108.3 (3.27%)

COPPER

4.48
Daily: 0.03 (0.67%)
Weekly: 0.07 (1.55%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $64.47
Closest Support: $61.06 5.29% below current price
Closest Resistance: $65.15 1.05% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $61.06 Support
0.236 $65.15 Resistance
0.382 $67.68
0.5 $69.73
0.618 $71.78
0.786 $74.69
1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $83.12
1.618 $89.12
2.0 $95.74
2.618 $106.46

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $64.8
Forecast Generated: 2025-08-25 23:49:20
Next Trading Day: UP 0.05%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-08-26 $64.83 $62.83 $66.83
2025-08-27 $64.78 $62.78 $66.78
2025-08-28 $64.73 $62.73 $66.73
2025-08-29 $64.7 $62.7 $66.7
2025-08-30 $64.64 $62.64 $66.64

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.05% for the next trading day (2025-08-26), reaching $64.83.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-08-26 and 2025-08-30.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~6.2% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent decline in the $5.02 for the OPEC Reference Basket indicates a bearish trend in the short term. However, the strong backwardation in the front end of the forward curves suggests short-term trading opportunities might arise as traders remain optimistic about market recovery.

The Brent-WTI spread at $4.07 reflects ongoing supply dynamics, with potential for volatility as geopolitical factors play a role. Traders should monitor the support levels around $62.96 for WTI and resistance near around $66.46 for Brent, which could signal entry or exit points.

CFTC data indicates a weakening bullish sentiment among managed money traders, which could foreshadow volatility. Keep an eye on the managed money net position drop, as extreme positioning might indicate potential market reversals.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The current market conditions necessitate a reevaluation of production planning and hedging strategies. With crude inventories rising by 21.4 mb in March, producers may need to adjust output to prevent oversupply in the market.

The balance of supply and demand indicates slight upward revisions in demand for DoC crude, suggesting a potential for improved pricing in the medium term. However, the geopolitical tensions and fluctuating inventory levels could impact operational strategies and require agile responses.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

With the geopolitical landscape affecting supply reliability, consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations. The recent increase in crude imports by China and India indicates a competitive procurement environment, which could lead to price increases.

The Brent and WTI price movements suggest monitoring input costs closely, especially with refinery margins showing mixed signals. Consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with rising prices and supply disruptions.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently influenced by a blend of bullish sentiment and weakening positioning. The overall economic growth forecasts suggest stability, but adjustments in supply and demand dynamics indicate potential volatility ahead.

Key driving factors include global oil demand growth projected at 1.3 mb/d for both 2025 and 2026, alongside a decline in non-DoC supply growth. Analysts should focus on geopolitical risks and their implications for market stability as they assess potential outlook shifts.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-08-25 23:46:44 Length: 480 chars
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Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-08-25 23:49

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