Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-08-24 23:49

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -2/5
Short: SELL | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $67.73 $0.06
WTI: $63.66 $0.14
Spread: $4.07 (Brent premium of $4.07)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BULLISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 27,445
Weekly Change: 21,420

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $63.71
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $63.25

MA(20): $64.79

Current Price is 63.71, 9 day MA 63.25, 20 day MA 64.79

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.8798

Signal: -0.8842

Days since crossover: 1

MACD crossed the line 1 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 45.1

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 45.1 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 9,712

Avg (20d): 254,176

Ratio: 0.04

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 36.8

%D: 33.27

Stochastic %K: 36.8, %D: 33.27. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 16.79

+DI: 14.6

-DI: 19.63

ADX: 16.79 (+DI: 14.6, -DI: 19.63). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -63.2

Williams %R: -63.2 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 69.36

Middle: 64.79

Lower: 60.22

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 69.36, Middle: 64.79, Lower: 60.22

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13382.0 13327.0 13300.0 12733.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 6497.0 6920.0 6285.0 6585.33
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 4372.0 3577.0 3756.0 4160.0
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 17208.0 17180.0 16467.0 16573.33
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2125.0 3343.0 2529.0 2425.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 420684.0 426698.0 430678.0 427076.33
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1666537.0 1670549.0 1663659.0 1645789.33
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 223570.0 226290.0 222203.0 217956.67
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 116028.0 113685.0 126123.0 117031.0

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (OCT 25) settled at $67.73, change $+0.06. WTI crude (OCT 25) settled at $63.66, change $+0.14. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.07 (Brent premium of $4.07). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$67.73
0.06
(OCT 25)

WTI Crude

$63.66
0.14
(OCT 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$4.07
Brent premium of $4.07

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious sentiment regarding the oil market, acknowledging both growth in global demand and challenges in supply dynamics.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Steady growth in global oil demand, particularly in non-OECD regions.
  • Revised forecasts for non-OPEC liquids supply growth.
  • Variability in refining margins and product markets.
  • Changes in commercial oil inventories and days of forward cover in OECD countries.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stocks (March) 2,740 mb 10.3 mb higher m-o-m
OECD Commercial Crude Stocks 1,323 mb 139 mb less than 2015–2019 average
OECD Total Product Stocks 1,417 mb 34 mb below 2015–2019 average
Days of Forward Cover 60.3 days 2.2 days lower than 2015–2019 average

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC maintains a focus on market stability, emphasizing the need for cooperation among member countries to address supply-demand imbalances and ensure a balanced oil market moving forward.

Direct Quotes

"The demand for DoC crude has been revised upward, reflecting a more optimistic outlook for market stability."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-08-19

Managed Money

27,445
Change: -21,420
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

297,794
Change: -2,118
15.5% of OI

Swap Dealers

-438,348
Change: +3,854
-22.8% of OI

Open Interest

1,922,821
Change: -88,138

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-08-19

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,922,821 contracts (-88,138)

Managed Money Net Position: 27,445 contracts (1.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -21,420 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 297,794 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -438,348 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BULLISH
Average Polarity: 0.7
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 30
Last Updated: 2025-08-24 23:49:02

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

0.7

Top News Topics

Demand (2 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

97.86
Daily: 0.14 (0.15%)
Weekly: -0.41 (-0.42%)

US_10Y

4.26
Daily: -0.07 (-1.62%)
Weekly: -0.08 (-1.87%)

SP500

6466.91
Daily: 96.74 (1.52%)
Weekly: 17.76 (0.28%)

VIX

14.22
Daily: -2.38 (-14.34%)
Weekly: -0.77 (-5.14%)

GOLD

3411.3
Daily: 36.9 (1.09%)
Weekly: 97.9 (2.95%)

COPPER

4.48
Daily: 0.03 (0.67%)
Weekly: 0.07 (1.55%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $63.71
Closest Support: $61.06 4.16% below current price
Closest Resistance: $65.15 2.26% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $61.06 Support
0.236 $65.15 Resistance
0.382 $67.68
0.5 $69.73
0.618 $71.78
0.786 $74.69
1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $83.12
1.618 $89.12
2.0 $95.74
2.618 $106.46

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $63.66
Forecast Generated: 2025-08-24 23:49:05
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.05%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-08-23 $63.63 $61.67 $65.58
2025-08-24 $63.66 $61.71 $65.62
2025-08-25 $63.61 $61.65 $65.56
2025-08-26 $63.59 $61.63 $65.54
2025-08-27 $63.58 $61.62 $65.53

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.05% for the next trading day (2025-08-23), reaching $63.63.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-08-23 and 2025-08-27.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~6.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent decline in crude oil prices presents both opportunities and risks for traders. The Brent-WTI spread currently at $4.07 indicates a narrowing premium for Brent, reflecting divergent supply/demand dynamics between global and U.S. markets.

With the ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI futures showing signs of short-term backwardation, traders should monitor potential Fibonacci retracement levels for further price action. The managed money net position is currently weakening, suggesting caution in bullish bets.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The current inventory levels indicate a mixed outlook for production planning. With OECD commercial crude stocks at 1,323 mb, below the 2015–2019 average, producers may need to adjust output to align with demand forecasts for 2025 and 2026, which show modest growth.

Given the market sentiment remains optimistic, albeit with caution, implementing hedging strategies could mitigate risks associated with price volatility. The decline in production from OPEC+ countries also suggests potential tightening in supply, which may benefit pricing.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations as crude prices exhibit volatility. The recent decline in crude prices coupled with increasing refinery margins in specific regions indicates a possible short-term stabilization in costs, but geopolitical tensions and inventory levels may pose supply reliability risks.

It's advisable to consider procurement strategies that account for these fluctuations, especially with the decline in U.S. crude imports and the ongoing dynamics in the global oil market.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently influenced by a mix of optimistic sentiment and declining prices. Key drivers include global oil demand growth projected at 1.3 mb/d for 2025, alongside a downward revision in non-DoC supply growth.

The managed money positioning reflects a weakening bullish sentiment, indicating potential shifts in market dynamics. Analysts should explore the implications of geopolitical factors and economic growth forecasts on future price movements and supply-demand balances.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-08-24 23:46:30 Length: 480 chars
Crude oil markets currently reflect a mix of bullish and bearish sentiments. Recent API data indicates a slight draw, while strong diesel and naphtha markets support refinery runs. Key resistance levels are 63.80 and 66.84, with support at 61.64, 57.35, and 53.87. The looming geopolitical tension surrounding the Russia-Ukraine war continues to weigh on sentiment, although physical supply flows remain strong. Watch for EIA data tomorrow for further clarity on gasoline and d...

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-08-24 23:49

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