Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish

Score: -2/5

Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $66.84 $1.05

WTI: $63.21 $0.86

Spread: $3.63 (Brent premium of $3.63)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)

Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BULLISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 48,865

Weekly Change: 32,472

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)

Current Price: $63.45

Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $63.22

MA(20): $65.01

Current Price is 63.45, 9 day MA 63.22, 20 day MA 65.01

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: -1.0156

Signal: -0.8714

Days since crossover: 13

MACD crossed the line 13 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 43.83

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 43.83 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 5,555

Avg (20d): 253,767

Ratio: 0.02

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 26.03

%D: 15.83

Stochastic %K: 26.03, %D: 15.83. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 17.26

+DI: 14.07

-DI: 21.23

ADX: 17.26 (+DI: 14.07, -DI: 21.23). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -73.97

Williams %R: -73.97 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 69.59

Middle: 65.01

Lower: 60.43

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 69.59, Middle: 65.01, Lower: 60.43

Fundamental Analysis

Category	Current (BCFD)	Last Week	Last Year	3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day)	13382.0	13327.0	13300.0	12733.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	6497.0	6920.0	6285.0	6585.33
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	4372.0	3577.0	3756.0	4160.0
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day)	17208.0	17180.0	16467.0	16573.33
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	2125.0	3343.0	2529.0	2425.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	420684.0	426698.0	430678.0	427076.33
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	1666537.0	1670549.0	1663659.0	1645789.33
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	223570.0	226290.0	222203.0	217956.67
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	116028.0	113685.0	126123.0	117031.0

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (OCT 25) settled at $66.84, change $+1.05. WTI crude (SEP 25) settled at $63.21, change $+0.86. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.63 (Brent premium of $3.63). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$66.84

1.05

(OCT 25)

WTI Crude

$63.21

0.86

(SEP 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$3.63

Brent premium of $3.63

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious sentiment regarding market stability, acknowledging ongoing challenges while highlighting some positive indicators in demand and supply dynamics.

Key Themes

Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
Steady global economic growth forecasts despite some revisions.
Unchanged projections for world oil demand growth in the coming years.
Revised forecasts for non-OPEC liquids supply growth.
Fluctuations in refinery margins and product market dynamics.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric	Value/Forecast	Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025)	1.3 mb/d	Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026)	1.3 mb/d	Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025)	0.8 mb/d	Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026)	0.8 mb/d	Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025)	42.6 mb/d	Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026)	42.9 mb/d	Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation	173 mb below 2015–2019 average	As of March
Compliance Levels with Production Agreements	N/A	Not Mentioned

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC remains focused on maintaining market stability amid fluctuating prices and varying demand forecasts. The organization emphasizes the importance of cooperation among member countries to manage supply effectively and respond to global economic conditions.

Direct Quotes

"The global economy continues to demonstrate a steady growth trend despite recent tariff-related developments."

"Demand for DoC crude is revised upward, reflecting a more optimistic outlook for the coming years."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening

Positioning: Normal Range

Report Date: 2025-08-12

Managed Money

48,865

Change: -32,472

2.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

299,912

Change: +11,440

14.9% of OI

Swap Dealers

-442,202

Change: +16,828

-22.0% of OI

Open Interest

2,010,959

Change: -25,465

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-08-12

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 2,010,959 contracts (-25,465)

Managed Money Net Position: 48,865 contracts (2.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -32,472 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 299,912 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -442,202 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BULLISH

Average Polarity: 0.6

Confidence: 1.0

Articles Analyzed: 60

Last Updated: 2025-08-21 23:48:59

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

0.6

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive

Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices

Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals

Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand

Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.76

Daily: 0.54 (0.55%)

Weekly: 0.91 (0.93%)

US_10Y

4.33

Daily: 0.03 (0.79%)

Weekly: 0.0 (0.05%)

SP500

6370.17

Daily: -25.61 (-0.4%)

Weekly: -79.63 (-1.23%)

VIX

16.6

Daily: 0.91 (5.8%)

Weekly: 1.51 (10.01%)

GOLD

3377.6

Daily: 34.2 (1.02%)

Weekly: 41.6 (1.25%)

COPPER

4.45

Daily: 0.02 (0.47%)

Weekly: -0.03 (-0.69%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $63.45

Closest Support: $59.74 5.85% below current price

Closest Resistance: $64.14 1.09% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $59.74 Support

0.236 $64.14 Resistance

0.382 $66.87

0.5 $69.07

0.618 $71.27

0.786 $74.41

1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $83.48

1.618 $89.93

2.0 $97.06

2.618 $108.59

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $63.52

Forecast Generated: 2025-08-21 23:49:01

Next Trading Day: UP 0.13%

Date	Prediction	Lower Bound	Upper Bound
2025-08-22	$63.6	$61.59	$65.61
2025-08-23	$63.57	$61.56	$65.58
2025-08-24	$63.61	$61.59	$65.62
2025-08-25	$63.55	$61.54	$65.56
2025-08-26	$63.53	$61.52	$65.55

ML Insights

Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
The model predicts a price increase of ~0.13% for the next trading day (2025-08-22), reaching $63.60.
The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-08-22 and 2025-08-26.
The average confidence interval width is ~6.3% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent decline in crude oil prices signals potential volatility in the short term. With the $66.84 for Brent and $63.21 for WTI, the Brent-WTI spread stands at $3.63, reflecting ongoing differences in supply-demand dynamics. The support levels to watch may be around $66 for Brent and $62 for WTI, with resistance at $70 and $65 respectively. The backwardation in the forward curve suggests traders are optimistic about short-term price movements, creating opportunities for short-term trades.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The current market dynamics, with demand for DoC crude revised upward to 42.6 mb/d, indicate a favorable environment for production planning. However, the decline in crude inventories in the OECD, which rose by only 21.4 mb, may necessitate a reassessment of hedging strategies. The weakening sentiment in managed money positions could imply caution in market operations, while the need for effective hedging against price fluctuations remains crucial.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Input cost fluctuations are likely, with WTI and Brent prices currently at $63.21 and $66.84 respectively. The geopolitical risks related to supply reliability, particularly concerning the Russia-Ukraine situation, could impact procurement strategies. Additionally, the decline in US product imports suggests a tightening market, which may affect procurement and hedging strategies for refineries and transportation sectors.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is characterized by a strong demand outlook for 2025, with a projected increase of 1.3 mb/d year-on-year. However, the recent price declines and weakening managed money positions indicate potential shifts in market sentiment. The balance of supply and demand is tightening, particularly with the upward revision of DoC crude demand. Analysts should monitor these dynamics closely to anticipate potential outlook shifts as geopolitical and economic factors evolve.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consider your specific circumstances before making any trading or investment decisions.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-08-21 23:46:37 Length: 480 chars

Crude oil markets have demonstrated resilience with recent draws in inventories, supported by strong diesel and naphtha demand. Despite uncertainties around the Russia-Ukraine conflict weighing on sentiment, the physical supply remains robust, channeled through “dark fleet” routes. Key technical levels show support at $61.64, while resistance sits between $63.80 and $66.84. As we approach the EIA report, the market is cautiously optimistic, with tighter supplies and manufa...