Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-08-20 23:49

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -2/5
Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $65.79 $0.81
WTI: $62.35 $1.07
Spread: $3.44 (Brent premium of $3.44)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 48,865
Weekly Change: 32,472

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $63.02
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $63.25

MA(20): $65.13

Current Price is 63.02, 9 day MA 63.25, 20 day MA 65.13

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: -1.0788

Signal: -0.8384

Days since crossover: 12

MACD crossed the line 12 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 41.83

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 41.83 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 7,766

Avg (20d): 253,905

Ratio: 0.03

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

OVERSOLD

%K: 14.14

%D: 12.08

Stochastic %K: 14.14, %D: 12.08. Signal: oversold

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 17.18

+DI: 13.83

-DI: 21.86

ADX: 17.18 (+DI: 13.83, -DI: 21.86). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERSOLD

Value: -85.86

Williams %R: -85.86 (oversold)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 69.69

Middle: 65.13

Lower: 60.57

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 69.69, Middle: 65.13, Lower: 60.57

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13382.0 13327.0 13300.0 12733.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 6497.0 6920.0 6285.0 6585.33
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 4372.0 3577.0 3756.0 4160.0
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 17208.0 17180.0 16467.0 16573.33
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2125.0 3343.0 2529.0 2425.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 420684.0 426698.0 430678.0 427076.33
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1666537.0 1670549.0 1663659.0 1645789.33
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 223570.0 226290.0 222203.0 217956.67
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 116028.0 113685.0 126123.0 117031.0

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (OCT 25) settled at $65.79, change $-0.81. WTI crude (SEP 25) settled at $62.35, change $-1.07. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.44 (Brent premium of $3.44). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$65.79
0.81
(OCT 25)

WTI Crude

$62.35
1.07
(SEP 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$3.44
Brent premium of $3.44

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious optimism regarding the market outlook, despite recent price declines and adjustments in economic growth forecasts.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Steady global economic growth with minor revisions in forecasts.
  • Stable world oil demand growth projections for 2025 and 2026.
  • Revisions in non-OPEC liquids supply growth forecasts.
  • Mixed performance in refining margins and product markets.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth 2025 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth 2026 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth 2025 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth 2026 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude 2025 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude 2026 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015–2019 average As of March
Compliance Levels N/A Not Mentioned

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC maintains a focus on market stability and is prepared to adjust production levels as necessary to respond to changing demand dynamics and economic conditions. The organization emphasizes the importance of cooperation among member countries to ensure a balanced oil market.

Direct Quotes

"The front end of the ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI and GME Oman forward curves strengthened further in April, reflecting traders’ optimism about the market outlook in the short-term."
"Demand for DoC crude is revised upward, indicating a positive adjustment in market expectations."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-08-12

Managed Money

48,865
Change: -32,472
2.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

299,912
Change: +11,440
14.9% of OI

Swap Dealers

-442,202
Change: +16,828
-22.0% of OI

Open Interest

2,010,959
Change: -25,465

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-08-12

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 2,010,959 contracts (-25,465)

Managed Money Net Position: 48,865 contracts (2.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -32,472 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 299,912 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -442,202 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.4
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 52
Last Updated: 2025-08-20 23:48:51

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.4

Top News Topics

Supply (1 articles)

Geopolitical (4 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.3
Daily: 0.03 (0.03%)
Weekly: 0.05 (0.05%)

US_10Y

4.3
Daily: -0.01 (-0.14%)
Weekly: 0.0 (0.07%)

SP500

6395.78
Daily: -15.59 (-0.24%)
Weekly: -72.76 (-1.12%)

VIX

15.69
Daily: 0.12 (0.77%)
Weekly: 0.86 (5.8%)

GOLD

3385.2
Daily: 71.8 (2.17%)
Weekly: 50.0 (1.5%)

COPPER

4.43
Daily: 0.03 (0.57%)
Weekly: -0.03 (-0.68%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $63.02
Closest Support: $59.74 5.2% below current price
Closest Resistance: $64.14 1.78% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $59.74 Support
0.236 $64.14 Resistance
0.382 $66.87
0.5 $69.07
0.618 $71.27
0.786 $74.41
1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $83.48
1.618 $89.93
2.0 $97.06
2.618 $108.59

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $63.21
Forecast Generated: 2025-08-20 23:48:53
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.1%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-08-21 $63.14 $61.0 $65.28
2025-08-22 $63.22 $61.08 $65.36
2025-08-23 $63.19 $61.05 $65.33
2025-08-24 $63.24 $61.1 $65.38
2025-08-25 $63.19 $61.05 $65.33

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.10% for the next trading day (2025-08-21), reaching $63.14.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-08-21 and 2025-08-25.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~6.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent price movements indicate a bearish sentiment in the market, as both Brent and WTI prices have declined significantly. The $65.79 for Brent and $62.35 for WTI suggest a challenging environment for bullish positions. The Fibonacci support levels may be tested, especially if the $62.00 level for WTI is breached. The $3.44 Brent-WTI spread reflects ongoing divergence between U.S. and global supply/demand dynamics, which could present short-term trading opportunities for those speculating on spreads. Volatility is expected to persist due to geopolitical tensions and fluctuating inventory levels, making it crucial to stay alert for potential shifts.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

Producers should consider the implications of inventory levels on their production planning. With OECD commercial crude stocks at 1,323 mb, which is 139 mb less than the 2015–2019 average, there may be pressure to adjust production levels to respond to market conditions. The hedging strategies may need to be revisited given the market sentiment and the potential for further price declines. Additionally, the geopolitical risks highlighted by the news sentiment could impact operations, making it essential to have contingency plans in place.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs, with current prices at $65.79 for Brent and $62.35 for WTI. The supply reliability risks due to geopolitical tensions, particularly concerning Russian oil supplies, could affect procurement strategies. The hedging considerations are vital in this environment, especially with the bearish market sentiment prevalent. Monitoring global inventory levels and refining margins will be crucial in making informed purchasing decisions.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently influenced by a mix of bearish factors, including declining prices, geopolitical uncertainties, and fluctuating inventory levels. The supply-demand balance indicates a modest growth in global oil demand, projected at 1.3 mb/d for both 2025 and 2026, while supply growth from non-DoC countries is revised down. The geopolitical risks and the weakening sentiment observed in CFTC positioning suggest potential shifts in market dynamics that could impact future price forecasts. Analysts should closely monitor these developments to refine outlooks and strategies.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult with a financial advisor for specific investment decisions.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-08-20 23:46:33 Length: 480 chars
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Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-08-20 23:49

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