Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-08-19 23:49

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -2/5
Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $66.6 $0.75
WTI: $63.42 $0.62
Spread: $3.18 (Brent premium of $3.18)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 48,865
Weekly Change: 32,472

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $61.85
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $63.29

MA(20): $65.22

Current Price is 61.85, 9 day MA 63.29, 20 day MA 65.22

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: -1.125

Signal: -0.7863

Days since crossover: 11

MACD crossed the line 11 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 37.11

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 37.11 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 8,143

Avg (20d): 261,541

Ratio: 0.03

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

OVERSOLD

%K: -1.06

%D: 8.75

Stochastic %K: -1.06, %D: 8.75. Signal: oversold

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 16.77

+DI: 14.41

-DI: 22.77

ADX: 16.77 (+DI: 14.41, -DI: 22.77). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERSOLD

Value: -101.06

Williams %R: -101.06 (oversold)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 69.74

Middle: 65.22

Lower: 60.69

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 69.74, Middle: 65.22, Lower: 60.69

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13327.0 13284.0 13400.0 12700.0
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 6920.0 5962.0 6224.0 6525.0
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3577.0 3318.0 3638.0 4451.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 17180.0 17124.0 16402.0 16545.33
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3343.0 2644.0 2586.0 2073.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 426698.0 423662.0 429321.0 431764.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1670549.0 1662801.0 1666068.0 1650569.67
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 226290.0 227082.0 225097.0 218011.67
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 113685.0 112971.0 127796.0 118040.67

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (OCT 25) settled at $66.6, change $+0.75. WTI crude (SEP 25) settled at $63.42, change $+0.62. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.18 (Brent premium of $3.18). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$66.6
0.75
(OCT 25)

WTI Crude

$63.42
0.62
(SEP 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$3.18
Brent premium of $3.18

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious yet optimistic sentiment regarding the oil market, reflecting a mix of challenges and positive indicators in demand and supply dynamics.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Steady global economic growth with minor revisions in forecasts.
  • Stable growth in world oil demand, particularly in non-OECD regions.
  • Revised forecasts for non-OPEC liquids supply growth.
  • Fluctuations in refining margins and tanker freight rates.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015–2019 average As of March
Compliance Levels with Production Agreements N/A Not Mentioned

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC maintains a focus on market stability, emphasizing the need for cooperation among member countries to manage supply effectively. The organization is closely monitoring economic indicators and oil demand trends to inform future production decisions.

Direct Quotes

"The market outlook shows signs of optimism, but we must remain vigilant against potential oversupply."
"Our commitment to cooperation remains strong as we navigate these challenging times."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-08-12

Managed Money

48,865
Change: -32,472
2.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

299,912
Change: +11,440
14.9% of OI

Swap Dealers

-442,202
Change: +16,828
-22.0% of OI

Open Interest

2,010,959
Change: -25,465

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-08-12

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 2,010,959 contracts (-25,465)

Managed Money Net Position: 48,865 contracts (2.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -32,472 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 299,912 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -442,202 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.6
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 37
Last Updated: 2025-08-19 23:48:54

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.6

Top News Topics

Supply (1 articles)

Geopolitical (3 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.35
Daily: 0.18 (0.18%)
Weekly: 0.51 (0.52%)

US_10Y

4.3
Daily: -0.04 (-0.9%)
Weekly: 0.06 (1.51%)

SP500

6411.37
Daily: -37.78 (-0.59%)
Weekly: -55.21 (-0.85%)

VIX

15.57
Daily: 0.58 (3.87%)
Weekly: 1.08 (7.45%)

GOLD

3360.2
Daily: 28.5 (0.86%)
Weekly: 1.5 (0.04%)

COPPER

4.43
Daily: -0.03 (-0.71%)
Weekly: -0.06 (-1.26%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $61.85
Closest Support: $59.74 3.41% below current price
Closest Resistance: $64.14 3.7% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $59.74 Support
0.236 $64.14 Resistance
0.382 $66.87
0.5 $69.07
0.618 $71.27
0.786 $74.41
1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $83.48
1.618 $89.93
2.0 $97.06
2.618 $108.59

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $62.35
Forecast Generated: 2025-08-19 23:48:56
Next Trading Day: UP 0.04%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-08-20 $62.37 $60.18 $64.57
2025-08-21 $62.31 $60.11 $64.5
2025-08-22 $62.38 $60.19 $64.57
2025-08-23 $62.37 $60.17 $64.56
2025-08-24 $62.43 $60.23 $64.62

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.04% for the next trading day (2025-08-20), reaching $62.37.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-08-20 and 2025-08-24.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~7.0% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent decline in crude oil prices, with the OPEC Reference Basket averaging $68.98/b, indicates potential bearish sentiment in the market. The Brent-WTI spread has narrowed slightly to $3.50/b, reflecting changes in supply/demand dynamics. Traders should be cautious with the current volatility and consider the implications of the managed money positioning, which shows a weakening bullish sentiment. Short-term opportunities may arise from the strengthened backwardation in forward curves, suggesting potential price recovery in the near term.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The decline in crude oil production from OPEC countries, averaging 40.92 mb/d, alongside a balanced demand forecast, suggests that producers should remain vigilant in their production planning. With inventory levels showing a slight increase in OECD commercial oil stocks, producers may benefit from hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating prices. Market sentiment remains bearish, which may influence operational decisions moving forward.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations as WTI and Brent prices remain volatile. The current geopolitical climate and fluctuating inventory levels pose risks to supply reliability. With US crude imports declining and product exports rising, procurement strategies may need adjustment to ensure stable supply. Monitoring the market sentiment will be crucial for making informed decisions regarding hedging against price increases.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a bearish sentiment, driven by declining prices and a mixed outlook for supply and demand. Key factors include a balanced demand forecast for non-OECD countries and a slight increase in OECD inventories. The geopolitical tensions and their impact on pricing should be closely monitored, as they remain a significant influence on market dynamics. Analysts should be prepared for potential shifts in outlook based on upcoming economic indicators and positioning trends.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult a financial advisor for specific investment decisions.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-08-19 23:46:36 Length: 480 chars
Crude oil markets are in a delicate balance after last week's significant inventory build. The API reported a draw, with EIA numbers pending for further clarity on gasoline and diesel stocks. Diesel and naphtha markets remain robust, supporting refinery runs. However, optimism surrounding potential resolutions to the Russia-Ukraine conflict is weighing on prices, with key supports at 61.64 holding firm. Watch for resistance levels at 63.80 and 66.84 as traders navigate the...

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-08-19 23:49

© 2025 Energy Research - All Rights Reserved