Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-08-17 23:49

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -2/5
Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $65.85 $0.99
WTI: $62.8 $1.16
Spread: $3.05 (Brent premium of $3.05)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 48,865
Weekly Change: 32,472

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $62.87
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $63.5

MA(20): $65.41

Current Price is 62.87, 9 day MA 63.5, 20 day MA 65.41

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: -1.0531

Signal: -0.7104

Days since crossover: 10

MACD crossed the line 10 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 39.44

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 39.44 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 3,334

Avg (20d): 272,757

Ratio: 0.01

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

OVERSOLD

%K: 10.85

%D: 14.82

Stochastic %K: 10.85, %D: 14.82. Signal: oversold

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 16.18

+DI: 15.63

-DI: 23.58

ADX: 16.18 (+DI: 15.63, -DI: 23.58). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERSOLD

Value: -89.15

Williams %R: -89.15 (oversold)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 69.73

Middle: 65.41

Lower: 61.08

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 69.73, Middle: 65.41, Lower: 61.08

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13327.0 13284.0 13400.0 12700.0
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 6920.0 5962.0 6224.0 6525.0
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3577.0 3318.0 3638.0 4451.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 17180.0 17124.0 16402.0 16545.33
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3343.0 2644.0 2586.0 2073.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 426698.0 423662.0 429321.0 431764.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1670549.0 1662801.0 1666068.0 1650569.67
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 226290.0 227082.0 225097.0 218011.67
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 113685.0 112971.0 127796.0 118040.67

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (OCT 25) settled at $65.85, change $-0.99. WTI crude (SEP 25) settled at $62.8, change $-1.16. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.05 (Brent premium of $3.05). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$65.85
0.99
(OCT 25)

WTI Crude

$62.8
1.16
(SEP 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$3.05
Brent premium of $3.05

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious optimism regarding the oil market, highlighting steady demand growth amidst fluctuating prices and economic adjustments.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Steady global economic growth forecasts despite minor revisions.
  • Stable growth in world oil demand, particularly in non-OECD regions.
  • Adjustments in non-OPEC liquids supply growth forecasts.
  • Fluctuations in refining margins and tanker freight rates.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stocks (March) 2,740 mb 10.3 mb higher m-o-m
OECD Commercial Stocks Deviation from 5-year average 173 mb below As of March
Crude Oil Production (April) 40.92 mb/d Decreased by 106 tb/d m-o-m

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC remains committed to ensuring market stability and balancing supply and demand dynamics. The organization acknowledges the challenges posed by fluctuating prices and external economic factors but expresses confidence in the resilience of global oil demand, particularly from non-OECD countries.

Direct Quotes

"The market outlook remains optimistic in the short-term, reflecting traders’ confidence despite recent price declines."
"We continue to monitor the balance of supply and demand closely, adjusting our forecasts as necessary to maintain stability."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-08-12

Managed Money

48,865
Change: -32,472
2.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

299,912
Change: +11,440
14.9% of OI

Swap Dealers

-442,202
Change: +16,828
-22.0% of OI

Open Interest

2,010,959
Change: -25,465

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-08-12

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 2,010,959 contracts (-25,465)

Managed Money Net Position: 48,865 contracts (2.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -32,472 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 299,912 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -442,202 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.6
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 28
Last Updated: 2025-08-17 23:49:24

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.6

Top News Topics

Geopolitical (2 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

97.85
Daily: 0.0 (0.0%)
Weekly: -0.25 (-0.25%)

US_10Y

4.33
Daily: 0.03 (0.82%)
Weekly: 0.06 (1.29%)

SP500

6449.8
Daily: -18.74 (-0.29%)
Weekly: 76.35 (1.2%)

VIX

15.09
Daily: 0.26 (1.75%)
Weekly: -1.16 (-7.14%)

GOLD

3393.8
Daily: 57.8 (1.73%)
Weekly: 44.9 (1.34%)

COPPER

4.49
Daily: 0.01 (0.33%)
Weekly: -0.02 (-0.34%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $62.87
Closest Support: $59.74 4.98% below current price
Closest Resistance: $64.14 2.02% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $59.74 Support
0.236 $64.14 Resistance
0.382 $66.87
0.5 $69.07
0.618 $71.27
0.786 $74.41
1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $83.48
1.618 $89.93
2.0 $97.06
2.618 $108.59

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $62.8
Forecast Generated: 2025-08-17 23:49:26
Next Trading Day: UP 0.03%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-08-16 $62.82 $60.66 $64.98
2025-08-17 $62.85 $60.68 $65.01
2025-08-18 $62.87 $60.71 $65.03
2025-08-19 $62.82 $60.66 $64.98
2025-08-20 $62.88 $60.72 $65.05

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.03% for the next trading day (2025-08-16), reaching $62.82.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-08-16 and 2025-08-20.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~6.9% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent bearish sentiment in the market, with an overall sentiment score of -0.600, suggests caution for traders. Crude oil prices have seen significant declines, with the $68.98 average for the OPEC Reference Basket and $62.96 for NYMEX WTI. The Brent-WTI spread narrowing to $3.05 indicates potential convergence in U.S. and global supply dynamics, which may lead to further volatility. Traders should monitor Fibonacci support levels closely as prices approach recent lows, particularly around $62.00 for WTI and $65.00 for Brent, to assess potential bounce-back opportunities.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

With crude oil production by OPEC countries decreasing by 106 tb/d in April, producers should consider adjusting their production planning in response to the bearish market sentiment. The hedging strategies may need to be revisited, especially with inventory levels showing an increase in crude stocks by 21.4 mb m-o-m, which could exert downward pressure on prices. Producers should also be aware of the geopolitical risks affecting supply reliability, particularly in light of the recent news sentiment surrounding U.S.-Russia relations that may impact market dynamics.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs as crude prices remain volatile. The $62.80 for WTI and $65.85 for Brent indicate current market conditions. The supply reliability risks stemming from geopolitical tensions and rising inventories may affect procurement strategies; thus, maintaining a flexible approach to purchasing is advisable. Additionally, with product exports from the U.S. increasing by 4%, there may be opportunities to leverage competitive pricing in product procurement.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market currently reflects a complex interplay of bearish sentiment driven by declining prices and rising inventories. Key factors include the tightening supply-demand balance with demand projected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2025, while non-DoC supply growth is revised down. Analysts should focus on the implications of the managed money positioning, which shows a weakening bullish trend, indicating potential shifts in market sentiment. The geopolitical landscape remains a critical driver, necessitating close monitoring of news sentiment and its impact on price forecasts.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-08-17 23:46:42 Length: 480 chars
Crude oil is currently facing downward pressure, having dropped below the pivotal support level of $63.80, with the next key resistance at $61.64. Factors contributing to this bearish sentiment include ongoing geopolitical tensions with no resolution in sight for Ukraine and increased OPEC+ production quotas. As traders anticipate potential easing of sanctions on Russian crude, the outlook suggests a possible dive into the $50s. Despite the current weakness, longer-term pr...

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-08-17 23:49

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