Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-08-16 23:49

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -2/5
Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $65.85 $0.99
WTI: $62.8 $1.16
Spread: $3.05 (Brent premium of $3.05)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 48,865
Weekly Change: 32,472

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $62.8
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $63.76

MA(20): $65.62

Current Price is 62.8, 9 day MA 63.76, 20 day MA 65.62

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: -1.0066

Signal: -0.6248

Days since crossover: 9

MACD crossed the line 9 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 39.08

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 39.08 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 251,652

Avg (20d): 276,650

Ratio: 0.91

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

OVERSOLD

%K: 10.04

%D: 13.96

Stochastic %K: 10.04, %D: 13.96. Signal: oversold

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 15.86

+DI: 16.02

-DI: 23.26

ADX: 15.86 (+DI: 16.02, -DI: 23.26). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERSOLD

Value: -89.96

Williams %R: -89.96 (oversold)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 69.85

Middle: 65.62

Lower: 61.39

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 69.85, Middle: 65.62, Lower: 61.39

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13327.0 13284.0 13400.0 12700.0
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 6920.0 5962.0 6224.0 6525.0
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3577.0 3318.0 3638.0 4451.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 17180.0 17124.0 16402.0 16545.33
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3343.0 2644.0 2586.0 2073.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 426698.0 423662.0 429321.0 431764.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1670549.0 1662801.0 1666068.0 1650569.67
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 226290.0 227082.0 225097.0 218011.67
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 113685.0 112971.0 127796.0 118040.67

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (OCT 25) settled at $65.85, change $-0.99. WTI crude (SEP 25) settled at $62.8, change $-1.16. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.05 (Brent premium of $3.05). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$65.85
0.99
(OCT 25)

WTI Crude

$62.8
1.16
(SEP 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$3.05
Brent premium of $3.05

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC's sentiment appears cautious as it navigates through fluctuating oil prices and mixed economic forecasts, while remaining optimistic about short-term market dynamics.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Steady global economic growth with minor revisions in forecasts.
  • Stable growth in world oil demand, particularly in non-OECD regions.
  • Adjustments in non-OPEC liquids supply growth forecasts.
  • Fluctuations in refining margins and tanker freight rates.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015–2019 average As of March
Compliance Levels N/A Not Mentioned

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC maintains a focus on market stability, emphasizing the need for cooperation among member countries to manage supply effectively, while closely monitoring global economic indicators and oil demand trends to inform future production strategies.

Direct Quotes

"The front end of the ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI and GME Oman forward curves strengthened further in April, reflecting traders’ optimism about the market outlook in the short-term."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-08-12

Managed Money

48,865
Change: -32,472
2.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

299,912
Change: +11,440
14.9% of OI

Swap Dealers

-442,202
Change: +16,828
-22.0% of OI

Open Interest

2,010,959
Change: -25,465

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-08-12

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 2,010,959 contracts (-25,465)

Managed Money Net Position: 48,865 contracts (2.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -32,472 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 299,912 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -442,202 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.6
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 44
Last Updated: 2025-08-16 23:49:02

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.6

Top News Topics

Supply (6 articles)

Demand (1 articles)

Geopolitical (3 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

97.85
Daily: -0.4 (-0.41%)
Weekly: -0.67 (-0.68%)

US_10Y

4.33
Daily: 0.03 (0.82%)
Weekly: 0.06 (1.29%)

SP500

6449.8
Daily: -18.74 (-0.29%)
Weekly: 76.35 (1.2%)

VIX

15.09
Daily: 0.26 (1.75%)
Weekly: -1.16 (-7.14%)

GOLD

3336.0
Daily: 0.8 (0.02%)
Weekly: -17.1 (-0.51%)

COPPER

4.48
Daily: 0.01 (0.3%)
Weekly: 0.05 (1.23%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $62.8
Closest Support: $59.74 4.87% below current price
Closest Resistance: $64.14 2.13% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $59.74 Support
0.236 $64.14 Resistance
0.382 $66.87
0.5 $69.07
0.618 $71.27
0.786 $74.41
1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $83.48
1.618 $89.93
2.0 $97.06
2.618 $108.59

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $62.8
Forecast Generated: 2025-08-16 23:49:04
Next Trading Day: UP 0.03%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-08-16 $62.82 $60.66 $64.98
2025-08-17 $62.85 $60.68 $65.01
2025-08-18 $62.87 $60.71 $65.03
2025-08-19 $62.82 $60.66 $64.98
2025-08-20 $62.88 $60.72 $65.04

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.03% for the next trading day (2025-08-16), reaching $62.82.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-08-16 and 2025-08-20.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~6.9% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent bearish sentiment in the market, with a sentiment score of -0.600, suggests caution for traders. The $65.85 Brent and $62.80 WTI prices indicate a narrowing Brent-WTI spread of $3.05, reflecting the ongoing adjustments in supply/demand dynamics.

The support level for WTI appears to be around $62.00, while resistance could be tested at $65.00. Traders should monitor for potential volatility, especially given the recent changes in managed money positions, which have decreased by 32,472 contracts. This indicates a weakening bullish sentiment that could lead to price corrections.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

With the bearish outlook and a decline in crude prices, producers should consider revisiting their hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with price volatility. The current inventory levels show an increase in OECD commercial crude stocks, which could indicate an oversupply in the market, affecting pricing power.

The demand forecast for DoC crude has been revised upwards, reaching 42.6 mb/d in 2025, which may provide a cushion for pricing. However, with production from non-DoC countries expected to grow, careful planning is essential to align production with market demand.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs as WTI and Brent prices remain under pressure. The recent bearish sentiment, coupled with $62.80 WTI prices, may lead to supply reliability risks due to geopolitical tensions and fluctuating inventories.

The consideration for procurement strategies is crucial, especially with U.S. crude imports declining and product exports on the rise. Monitoring refinery margins, particularly in the U.S. Gulf Coast, will be important for assessing profitability and operational costs moving forward.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently influenced by a mix of bearish sentiment and fundamental shifts. The supply-demand balance is tightening slightly, with a projected demand increase of 1.3 mb/d in 2025, but this is countered by rising inventories and production from non-DoC countries.

Key drivers include the bearish news sentiment around supply forecasts and inventory reports, which could lead to shifts in market outlook. Analysts should closely monitor the implications of geopolitical developments and the positioning of managed money traders, as these factors could signal potential price reversals or further declines.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-08-16 23:46:23 Length: 480 chars
Crude oil prices have been on a rollercoaster, initially spiking due to heightened tensions between Israel, Iran, and the U.S., only to plummet after a ceasefire was announced. Demand concerns loom large, especially with OPEC+ increasing production quotas, pushing bearish sentiment. Key price levels are crucial: watch for support at $63.80 and $61.64, while $66.84 serves as a pivotal point. A drop below this could signal a potential plunge toward $50. Traders should stay a...

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-08-16 23:49

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