Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-08-14 15:08

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -2/5
Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $65.63 $0.49
WTI: $62.65 $0.52
Spread: $2.98 (Brent premium of $2.98)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 81,337
Weekly Change: 16,050

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $64.04
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $64.15

MA(20): $65.85

Current Price is 64.04, 9 day MA 64.15, 20 day MA 65.85

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: -0.9191

Signal: -0.528

Days since crossover: 8

MACD crossed the line 8 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 43.28

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 43.28 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 212,950

Avg (20d): 267,789

Ratio: 0.8

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 24.5

%D: 12.65

Stochastic %K: 24.5, %D: 12.65. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 15.71

+DI: 16.58

-DI: 24.7

ADX: 15.71 (+DI: 16.58, -DI: 24.7). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -75.5

Williams %R: -75.5 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 69.93

Middle: 65.85

Lower: 61.78

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 69.93, Middle: 65.85, Lower: 61.78

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13327.0 13284.0 13400.0 12700.0
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 6920.0 5962.0 6224.0 6525.0
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3577.0 3318.0 3638.0 4451.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 17180.0 17124.0 16402.0 16545.33
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3343.0 2644.0 2586.0 2073.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 426698.0 423662.0 429321.0 431764.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1670549.0 1662801.0 1666068.0 1650569.67
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 226290.0 227082.0 225097.0 218011.67
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 113685.0 112971.0 127796.0 118040.67

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (OCT 25) settled at $65.63, change $-0.49. WTI crude (SEP 25) settled at $62.65, change $-0.52. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $2.98 (Brent premium of $2.98). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$65.63
0.49
(OCT 25)

WTI Crude

$62.65
0.52
(SEP 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$2.98
Brent premium of $2.98

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC's sentiment appears cautious as it navigates a complex market landscape characterized by fluctuating oil prices and mixed economic forecasts.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Steady global economic growth despite trade tensions.
  • Stable growth in world oil demand, particularly in non-OECD regions.
  • Forecast adjustments in non-OPEC liquids supply growth.
  • Mixed performance in refining margins across different regions.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015–2019 average As of March
Compliance Levels with Production Agreements N/A Not Mentioned

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC maintains a focus on market stability, acknowledging the challenges posed by fluctuating prices and varying demand forecasts. The organization is likely to continue monitoring production levels and adjusting strategies to align with global market conditions.

Direct Quotes

"The global economy continues to demonstrate a steady growth trend despite recent tariff-related developments."
"Demand for DoC crude is revised upward, reflecting a positive outlook for OPEC's market position."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-08-05

Managed Money

81,337
Change: -16,050
4.0% of OI

Producer/Merchant

288,472
Change: -2,639
14.2% of OI

Swap Dealers

-459,030
Change: +11,673
-22.5% of OI

Open Interest

2,036,424
Change: 7,551

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-08-05

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 2,036,424 contracts (+7,551)

Managed Money Net Position: 81,337 contracts (4.0% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -16,050 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 288,472 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -459,030 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.6
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 71
Last Updated: 2025-08-14 15:08:17

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.6

Top News Topics

Supply (4 articles)

Demand (1 articles)

Geopolitical (9 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.26
Daily: 0.42 (0.43%)
Weekly: 0.08 (0.08%)

US_10Y

4.29
Daily: 0.06 (1.3%)
Weekly: 0.01 (0.19%)

SP500

6465.51
Daily: -1.07 (-0.02%)
Weekly: 76.06 (1.19%)

VIX

14.74
Daily: 0.25 (1.73%)
Weekly: -0.41 (-2.71%)

GOLD

3384.9
Daily: 26.2 (0.78%)
Weekly: -54.2 (-1.58%)

COPPER

4.49
Daily: 0.01 (0.27%)
Weekly: 0.04 (0.86%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $64.04
Closest Support: $59.74 6.71% below current price
Closest Resistance: $64.14 0.16% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $59.74 Support
0.236 $64.14 Resistance
0.382 $66.87
0.5 $69.07
0.618 $71.27
0.786 $74.41
1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $83.48
1.618 $89.93
2.0 $97.06
2.618 $108.59

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $62.65
Forecast Generated: 2025-08-14 15:08:19
Next Trading Day: UP 0.02%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-08-14 $62.67 $60.52 $64.81
2025-08-15 $62.68 $60.53 $64.82
2025-08-16 $62.7 $60.56 $64.85
2025-08-17 $62.76 $60.61 $64.9
2025-08-18 $62.78 $60.64 $64.93

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.02% for the next trading day (2025-08-14), reaching $62.67.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-08-14 and 2025-08-18.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~6.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent decline in crude oil prices, with $68.98 for the OPEC Reference Basket and $66.46 for ICE Brent, suggests bearish sentiment in the market. The $3.50 Brent-WTI spread indicates a slight premium for Brent, reflecting ongoing differences in global versus U.S. supply-demand dynamics.

Traders should be cautious of potential volatility as the sentiment score stands at -0.600. The managed money net position shows a weakening bullish trend, which could lead to further price declines if the bearish sentiment continues.

Short-term opportunities may arise from the narrowing spread, but traders should monitor for support levels around the recent lows to gauge potential reversals. Fibonacci retracement levels may provide additional insights into potential price targets.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The current market dynamics indicate a need for careful production planning. With crude oil inventories rising to 2,740 mb, producers should consider adjusting output levels to prevent oversupply.

The bearish sentiment reflected in the market could impact pricing strategies, making it vital to implement effective hedging strategies to mitigate potential losses.

Additionally, the forecasted demand growth of 1.3 mb/d in 2025 may create opportunities, particularly in non-OECD markets. Producers should focus on these regions to optimize their output in alignment with demand forecasts.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

With crude prices currently around $66.46 for Brent and $62.96 for WTI, consumers should anticipate potential input cost fluctuations. The bearish sentiment may lead to lower prices in the short term, but ongoing geopolitical tensions could pose supply reliability risks.

The recent drop in U.S. crude imports to 5.8 mb/d and the mixed signals from product imports and exports suggest variability in supply chains. Consumers should evaluate procurement strategies carefully to navigate potential disruptions effectively.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a bearish sentiment, driven by declining prices and rising inventories. The OPEC narrative indicates a cautious outlook, with global demand growth projected at 1.3 mb/d for 2025, primarily in non-OECD regions.

Key driving factors include a fundamental imbalance between supply and demand, as evidenced by the drop in crude production from OPEC+ countries and the increase in non-DoC liquids supply. Analysts should monitor these trends closely to assess potential shifts in market dynamics.

The positioning data reveals a weakening bullish trend among managed money traders, suggesting a cautious approach to forecasting price movements in the near term.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

480-Character Summary

Updated: 2025-08-14 15:05:38 Length: 480 chars
Crude oil prices saw a spike due to escalating geopolitical tensions, especially between Israel and Iran, but the market quickly corrected following a ceasefire and reduced aggression from Iran. With OPEC+ increasing production quotas, the bearish sentiment prevails, leading to a pivotal support at $66.84. Traders are now eyeing a potential drop to $50, with support levels at $63.80 and $61.64. Key resistance sits at $68.48 and $71.41, as market anxiety shifts from supply ...

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-08-14 15:08

© 2025 Energy Research - All Rights Reserved