Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-08-13 23:49

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -2/5
Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $66.12 $0.51
WTI: $63.17 $0.79
Spread: $2.95 (Brent premium of $2.95)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 81,337
Weekly Change: 16,050

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $62.87
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $64.54

MA(20): $66.04

Current Price is 62.87, 9 day MA 64.54, 20 day MA 66.04

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: -0.909

Signal: -0.4268

Days since crossover: 7

MACD crossed the line 7 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 37.03

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 37.03 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 6,299

Avg (20d): 251,675

Ratio: 0.03

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

OVERSOLD

%K: 2.18

%D: 7.57

Stochastic %K: 2.18, %D: 7.57. Signal: oversold

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 15.02

+DI: 15.47

-DI: 24.19

ADX: 15.02 (+DI: 15.47, -DI: 24.19). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERSOLD

Value: -97.82

Williams %R: -97.82 (oversold)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 70.05

Middle: 66.04

Lower: 62.03

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 70.05, Middle: 66.04, Lower: 62.03

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13327.0 13284.0 13400.0 12700.0
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 6920.0 5962.0 6224.0 6525.0
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3577.0 3318.0 3638.0 4451.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 17180.0 17124.0 16402.0 16545.33
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3343.0 2644.0 2586.0 2073.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 426698.0 423662.0 429321.0 431764.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1670549.0 1662801.0 1666068.0 1650569.67
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 226290.0 227082.0 225097.0 218011.67
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 113685.0 112971.0 127796.0 118040.67

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (OCT 25) settled at $66.12, change $-0.51. WTI crude (SEP 25) settled at $63.17, change $-0.79. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $2.95 (Brent premium of $2.95). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$66.12
0.51
(OCT 25)

WTI Crude

$63.17
0.79
(SEP 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$2.95
Brent premium of $2.95

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious optimism regarding the oil market, with expectations of steady demand growth despite recent economic challenges.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks in April.
  • Steady global economic growth with minor revisions in forecasts for major economies.
  • Unchanged global oil demand growth projections for 2025 and 2026.
  • Revised forecasts for non-OPEC liquids supply growth, indicating a slight downward adjustment.
  • Changes in commercial oil inventories and their implications for market stability.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015–2019 average As of March
Compliance Levels N/A Not Mentioned

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC maintains a focus on market stability, with a commitment to adjusting production levels as necessary to balance supply and demand dynamics. The organization is closely monitoring global economic indicators and oil demand forecasts to guide future policy decisions.

Direct Quotes

"The demand for DoC crude is revised upward, reflecting a more optimistic outlook for market stability."
"Despite economic challenges, the global oil demand trajectory remains resilient."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-08-05

Managed Money

81,337
Change: -16,050
4.0% of OI

Producer/Merchant

288,472
Change: -2,639
14.2% of OI

Swap Dealers

-459,030
Change: +11,673
-22.5% of OI

Open Interest

2,036,424
Change: 7,551

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-08-05

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 2,036,424 contracts (+7,551)

Managed Money Net Position: 81,337 contracts (4.0% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -16,050 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 288,472 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -459,030 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.7
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 63
Last Updated: 2025-08-13 23:48:51

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.7

Top News Topics

Supply (4 articles)

Demand (1 articles)

Geopolitical (7 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

97.74
Daily: -0.36 (-0.37%)
Weekly: -0.66 (-0.67%)

US_10Y

4.24
Daily: -0.06 (-1.28%)
Weekly: -0.01 (-0.14%)

SP500

6466.58
Daily: 20.82 (0.32%)
Weekly: 126.58 (2.0%)

VIX

14.49
Daily: -0.24 (-1.63%)
Weekly: -2.08 (-12.55%)

GOLD

3404.3
Daily: 55.4 (1.65%)
Weekly: 4.0 (0.12%)

COPPER

4.5
Daily: -0.01 (-0.12%)
Weekly: 0.12 (2.84%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $62.87
Closest Support: $59.74 4.98% below current price
Closest Resistance: $64.14 2.02% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $59.74 Support
0.236 $64.14 Resistance
0.382 $66.87
0.5 $69.07
0.618 $71.27
0.786 $74.41
1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $83.48
1.618 $89.93
2.0 $97.06
2.618 $108.59

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $62.65
Forecast Generated: 2025-08-13 23:48:55
Next Trading Day: UP 0.02%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-08-14 $62.66 $60.52 $64.81
2025-08-15 $62.68 $60.53 $64.82
2025-08-16 $62.7 $60.56 $64.85
2025-08-17 $62.75 $60.61 $64.9
2025-08-18 $62.78 $60.64 $64.93

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.02% for the next trading day (2025-08-14), reaching $62.66.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-08-14 and 2025-08-18.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~6.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent bearish sentiment reflected in the overall market sentiment score of -0.700 indicates potential downward pressure on prices. With the Brent-WTI spread currently at $2.95, traders should consider the implications of the narrowing spread, which suggests a tightening U.S. supply-demand dynamic compared to global markets.

The support level for WTI appears to be around $62.00, while resistance is seen near $65.00. Traders should also monitor the risk of increased volatility due to geopolitical tensions and inventory fluctuations, particularly as managed money net positions have decreased by 16,050 contracts, indicating a potential weakening bullish sentiment.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The current balance of supply and demand indicates a slight upward revision in demand for DoC crude, now at 42.6 mb/d for 2025. However, the bearish sentiment and declining production from OPEC+ (down by 106 tb/d) suggest that producers should carefully assess their hedging strategies and production planning to mitigate potential risks associated with fluctuating prices and inventory levels.

With OECD commercial crude stocks at 1,323 mb, which is 139 mb below the 2015–2019 average, producers should be cautious of market dynamics that could lead to further price declines, particularly in a bearish market environment.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers in the industrial and refining sectors should brace for potential fluctuations in input costs, particularly with WTI prices hovering around $63.17. The risk of supply reliability issues remains, especially with geopolitical tensions affecting crude flows and the bearish sentiment in the market.

The strategy for procurement should involve monitoring inventory levels, as U.S. crude imports have declined to an average of 5.8 mb/d, indicating tighter supply. The current refining margins in the U.S. Gulf Coast show signs of recovery, which may provide opportunities for cost management, but overall market conditions remain bearish.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market presents a complex picture with bearish sentiment dominating due to recent price declines and inventory increases. The global oil demand forecast remains stable at 1.3 mb/d growth for 2025, but the bearish sentiment from news articles and CFTC positioning suggests a potential shift in market dynamics.

Key driving factors include the balance of supply and demand, with non-DoC liquids supply growth forecasted to be 0.8 mb/d. Analysts should focus on the implications of geopolitical developments and U.S. inventory levels, as these could lead to significant shifts in price outlooks, particularly if managed money positioning continues to weaken.

Disclaimer:

480-Character Summary

Updated: 2025-08-13 23:46:04 Length: 480 chars
Crude oil is seeing a bearish shift as tensions eased between Israel and Iran, leading to a drop in prices, especially with OPEC+ increasing quotas. The key pivot level is $66.84, with potential support at $63.80 and $61.64. Meanwhile, natural gas has a mixed outlook; rising summer temperatures and increased LNG exports could boost demand, yet prices are down due to high output and cooler forecasts. Traders should monitor $3.449 for resistance and $3 as a significant suppo...

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-08-13 23:49

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