Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-08-12 23:49

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -2/5
Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $66.63 $0.04
WTI: $63.96 $0.52
Spread: $2.67 (Brent premium of $2.67)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 81,337
Weekly Change: 16,050

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $63.16
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $65.25

MA(20): $66.21

Current Price is 63.16, 9 day MA 65.25, 20 day MA 66.21

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: -0.7819

Signal: -0.3064

Days since crossover: 6

MACD crossed the line 6 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 37.95

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 37.95 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 7,865

Avg (20d): 248,948

Ratio: 0.03

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

OVERSOLD

%K: 5.04

%D: 11.58

Stochastic %K: 5.04, %D: 11.58. Signal: oversold

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 14.59

+DI: 15.84

-DI: 24.08

ADX: 14.59 (+DI: 15.84, -DI: 24.08). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERSOLD

Value: -94.96

Williams %R: -94.96 (oversold)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 69.96

Middle: 66.21

Lower: 62.47

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 69.96, Middle: 66.21, Lower: 62.47

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13284.0 13314.0 13300.0 12733.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 5962.0 6136.0 6953.0 6359.0
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3318.0 2698.0 4919.0 2702.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 17124.0 16911.0 16150.0 16520.67
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2644.0 3438.0 2034.0 3656.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 423662.0 426691.0 433049.0 435651.0
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1662801.0 1660512.0 1664122.0 1657825.33
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 227082.0 228405.0 223757.0 220611.0
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 112971.0 113536.0 126847.0 118244.33

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (OCT 25) settled at $66.63, change $+0.04. WTI crude (SEP 25) settled at $63.96, change $+0.52. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $2.67 (Brent premium of $2.67). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$66.63
0.04
(OCT 25)

WTI Crude

$63.96
0.52
(SEP 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$2.67
Brent premium of $2.67

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious yet optimistic sentiment regarding the oil market, highlighting steady demand growth amid economic adjustments and fluctuating supply dynamics.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices and mixed performance across different markets.
  • Steady global economic growth with minor adjustments to forecasts.
  • Stable oil demand growth projected for 2025 and 2026.
  • Revised forecasts for non-OPEC liquids supply growth.
  • Fluctuations in tanker freight rates reflecting market conditions.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation from 5-year average 173 mb below March data
Compliance with Production Agreements 106 tb/d decrease April production data

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC remains committed to ensuring market stability through careful monitoring of supply and demand dynamics. The organization emphasizes the importance of cooperation among member countries to adapt to changing market conditions and to support sustainable oil prices.

Direct Quotes

"The market outlook reflects traders’ optimism about the short-term, despite the challenges posed by fluctuating supply dynamics."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-08-05

Managed Money

81,337
Change: -16,050
4.0% of OI

Producer/Merchant

288,472
Change: -2,639
14.2% of OI

Swap Dealers

-459,030
Change: +11,673
-22.5% of OI

Open Interest

2,036,424
Change: 7,551

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-08-05

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 2,036,424 contracts (+7,551)

Managed Money Net Position: 81,337 contracts (4.0% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -16,050 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 288,472 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -459,030 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.6
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 44
Last Updated: 2025-08-12 23:48:38

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.6

Top News Topics

Supply (3 articles)

Demand (1 articles)

Geopolitical (3 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.02
Daily: -0.5 (-0.51%)
Weekly: -0.16 (-0.16%)

US_10Y

4.29
Daily: 0.02 (0.47%)
Weekly: 0.07 (1.73%)

SP500

6445.76
Daily: 72.31 (1.13%)
Weekly: 100.7 (1.59%)

VIX

14.73
Daily: -1.52 (-9.35%)
Weekly: -2.04 (-12.16%)

GOLD

3400.2
Daily: 47.1 (1.4%)
Weekly: 20.2 (0.6%)

COPPER

4.51
Daily: 0.09 (2.01%)
Weekly: 0.12 (2.77%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $63.16
Closest Support: $59.74 5.41% below current price
Closest Resistance: $64.14 1.55% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $59.74 Support
0.236 $64.14 Resistance
0.382 $66.87
0.5 $69.07
0.618 $71.27
0.786 $74.41
1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $83.48
1.618 $89.93
2.0 $97.06
2.618 $108.59

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $63.17
Forecast Generated: 2025-08-12 23:48:40
Next Trading Day: UP 0.07%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-08-13 $63.22 $61.07 $65.36
2025-08-14 $63.24 $61.09 $65.38
2025-08-15 $63.25 $61.11 $65.4
2025-08-16 $63.26 $61.12 $65.41
2025-08-17 $63.3 $61.16 $65.45

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.07% for the next trading day (2025-08-13), reaching $63.22.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-08-13 and 2025-08-17.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~6.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent bearish sentiment in the market, reflected by a sentiment score of -0.600, suggests caution for traders. The $66.63 for Brent and $63.96 for WTI indicate a narrowing Brent-WTI spread of $2.67, which may reflect shifting dynamics in supply and demand between global and U.S. markets.

The support levels to watch are around $62.00 for WTI and $65.00 for Brent, while resistance can be anticipated near $68.00. Given the increased volatility and the managed money positioning showing a weakening bullish trend, traders should be ready for potential short-term fluctuations.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

Producers should consider the implications of the recent inventory levels, with OECD commercial crude stocks at 1,323 mb, which is 139 mb below the 2015–2019 average. This indicates a tighter market that could affect production planning and pricing strategies.

The hedging strategies may need to be adjusted in response to the market sentiment and declining crude production from OPEC countries, which has decreased by 106 tb/d in April. Producers should remain vigilant of geopolitical risks that may impact supply reliability.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should brace for potential input cost fluctuations as crude prices remain under pressure with Brent at $66.63 and WTI at $63.96. The bearish sentiment may lead to short-term price reductions, but the supply reliability risks remain, particularly due to geopolitical tensions and fluctuating inventory levels.

Given the current dynamics, procurement strategies should focus on securing supplies at current prices while monitoring the forward curves for any signs of upward pressure in the medium term.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently facing a bearish outlook, driven by a combination of factors including a decline in OPEC production, rising inventory levels, and a negative news sentiment score of -0.600. The supply-demand balance indicates a slight tightening, but the overall sentiment suggests caution.

Analysts should focus on the key driving factors such as geopolitical developments, OPEC's production policies, and the evolving economic landscape, particularly in major consuming countries. The positioning data indicates a weakening bullish stance among managed money, which could signal a shift in market dynamics.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/s

480-Character Summary

Updated: 2025-08-12 23:46:01 Length: 480 chars
Crude oil prices fluctuated recently, driven by geopolitical tensions but ultimately fell due to a ceasefire and OPEC+'s decision to boost production, leading to bearish sentiment with a pivotal level at $66.84. Meanwhile, natural gas saw a decline, hitting an eight-month low from strong output and cooler weather forecasts, despite bullish indicators from rising demand due to heat and LNG exports. Traders are closely monitoring these dynamics as key support and resistance ...

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-08-12 23:49

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