Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-08-09 23:49

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -2/5
Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $66.59 $0.16
WTI: $63.88 $0.0
Spread: $2.71 (Brent premium of $2.71)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 81,337
Weekly Change: 16,050

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $63.88
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $66.6

MA(20): $66.53

Current Price is 63.88, 9 day MA 66.6, 20 day MA 66.53

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: -0.5242

Signal: -0.0751

Days since crossover: 4

MACD crossed the line 4 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 40.13

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 40.13 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

HIGHER

Current: 300,518

Avg (20d): 261,524

Ratio: 1.15

Volume is higher versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

OVERSOLD

%K: 14.34

%D: 9.39

Stochastic %K: 14.34, %D: 9.39. Signal: oversold

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 13.74

+DI: 17.39

-DI: 25.65

ADX: 13.74 (+DI: 17.39, -DI: 25.65). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERSOLD

Value: -85.66

Williams %R: -85.66 (oversold)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 69.83

Middle: 66.53

Lower: 63.24

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 69.83, Middle: 66.53, Lower: 63.24

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13284.0 13314.0 13300.0 12733.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 5962.0 6136.0 6953.0 6359.0
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3318.0 2698.0 4919.0 2702.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 17124.0 16911.0 16150.0 16520.67
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2644.0 3438.0 2034.0 3656.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 423662.0 426691.0 433049.0 435651.0
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1662801.0 1660512.0 1664122.0 1657825.33
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 227082.0 228405.0 223757.0 220611.0
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 112971.0 113536.0 126847.0 118244.33

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (OCT 25) settled at $66.59, change $+0.16. WTI crude (SEP 25) settled at $63.88, change $0.0. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $2.71 (Brent premium of $2.71). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$66.59
0.16
(OCT 25)

WTI Crude

$63.88
0.0
(SEP 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$2.71
Brent premium of $2.71

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious yet optimistic sentiment regarding the oil market, acknowledging ongoing challenges while highlighting positive short-term trends.

Key Themes

  • Crude oil price movements show significant declines across major benchmarks.
  • Global economic growth forecasts indicate slight revisions but remain stable.
  • World oil demand is projected to grow steadily in the coming years.
  • Non-OPEC liquids supply growth is revised down, with key contributors identified.
  • Commercial oil inventories in OECD are below historical averages, indicating tighter supply conditions.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015–2019 average As of March
Crude Oil Production (April) 40.92 mb/d Decrease of 106 tb/d m-o-m

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC remains committed to maintaining market stability and is closely monitoring supply and demand dynamics. The organization is prepared to adjust production levels as necessary to support price stability and ensure a balanced market moving forward.

Direct Quotes

"The market outlook shows signs of optimism, yet we must remain vigilant against potential oversupply risks."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-08-05

Managed Money

81,337
Change: -16,050
4.0% of OI

Producer/Merchant

288,472
Change: -2,639
14.2% of OI

Swap Dealers

-459,030
Change: +11,673
-22.5% of OI

Open Interest

2,036,424
Change: 7,551

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-08-05

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 2,036,424 contracts (+7,551)

Managed Money Net Position: 81,337 contracts (4.0% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -16,050 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 288,472 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -459,030 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.4
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 53
Last Updated: 2025-08-09 23:48:47

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.4

Top News Topics

Supply (2 articles)

Demand (1 articles)

Geopolitical (7 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.18
Daily: -0.22 (-0.22%)
Weekly: -0.6 (-0.61%)

US_10Y

4.28
Daily: 0.04 (0.97%)
Weekly: 0.09 (2.02%)

SP500

6389.45
Daily: 49.45 (0.78%)
Weekly: 59.51 (0.94%)

VIX

15.15
Daily: -1.42 (-8.57%)
Weekly: -2.37 (-13.53%)

GOLD

3439.1
Daily: 38.8 (1.14%)
Weekly: 64.7 (1.92%)

COPPER

4.46
Daily: 0.08 (1.76%)
Weekly: 0.04 (0.92%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $63.88
Closest Support: $59.74 6.48% below current price
Closest Resistance: $64.14 0.41% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $59.74 Support
0.236 $64.14 Resistance
0.382 $66.87
0.5 $69.07
0.618 $71.27
0.786 $74.41
1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $83.48
1.618 $89.93
2.0 $97.06
2.618 $108.59

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $63.88
Forecast Generated: 2025-08-09 23:48:49
Next Trading Day: UP 0.15%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-08-09 $63.98 $61.71 $66.25
2025-08-10 $64.06 $61.79 $66.33
2025-08-11 $64.12 $61.85 $66.39
2025-08-12 $64.14 $61.87 $66.41
2025-08-13 $64.14 $61.87 $66.41

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.15% for the next trading day (2025-08-09), reaching $63.98.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-08-09 and 2025-08-13.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~7.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

With the $66.59 settlement for Brent and $63.88 for WTI, the narrowing of the Brent-WTI spread to $2.71 signals potential changes in market dynamics. The bearish sentiment score of -0.400 indicates caution, suggesting that traders should watch for volatility in the near term. The resistance levels for WTI are likely near $64.00, while support can be observed around $61.00. The backwardation in forward curves reflects short-term optimism, but the overall market sentiment is bearish, indicating potential short-term risks.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The balance of supply and demand indicates a slight upward revision in demand for DoC crude to 42.6 mb/d for 2025, suggesting stable market conditions for production planning. However, with OECD commercial oil inventories rising to 2,740 mb, producers should consider adjusting their hedging strategies to mitigate price fluctuations. The bearish sentiment in the market could impact pricing strategies, necessitating a focus on operational efficiencies and cost management.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

As crude prices settle at $66.59 for Brent and $63.88 for WTI, consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations. The bearish sentiment may indicate a need for strategic procurement. Additionally, geopolitical risks, particularly related to the Russian-Ukraine situation, could disrupt supply reliability. It's advisable to monitor inventory levels and consider hedging strategies to mitigate procurement risks.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently influenced by a bearish sentiment, with key driving factors including a decline in OPEC prices and rising inventories. The managed money positioning shows a slight weakening, indicating potential shifts in market dynamics. The global economic outlook remains stable, but the balance of supply and demand suggests cautious optimism, particularly with non-OECD demand growth. Analysts should focus on the interplay between geopolitical developments and market responses, as these will be crucial for forecasting future price movements.

Disclaimer: This response is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult a financial advisor for specific investment guidance.

480-Character Summary

Updated: 2025-08-09 23:46:04 Length: 480 chars
Crude oil has faced volatility as tensions in the Middle East have eased, resulting in a bearish outlook with OPEC+ increasing production quotas. Key levels to monitor include $66.84 (pivot) and potential drop to $50. Meanwhile, natural gas is caught between a heat wave boosting demand and ample supply, despite being 6% above storage averages. With prices settling under $3, traders expect softer landings ahead. Overall, keep an eye on geopolitical developments and weather ...

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-08-09 23:49

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