Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Neutral

Score: 1/5

Short: SELL | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $72.55 $0.02

WTI: $67.33 $1.93

Spread: $5.22 (Brent premium of $5.22)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)

Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 97,387

Weekly Change: 850

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 1 (Neutral)

Current Price: $67.25

Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $67.36

MA(20): $67.3

Current Price is 67.25, 9 day MA 67.36, 20 day MA 67.3

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: 0.3414

Signal: 0.2624

Days since crossover: 5

MACD crossed the line 5 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 50.22

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 50.22 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 12,121

Avg (20d): 227,566

Ratio: 0.05

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 43.79

%D: 55.8

Stochastic %K: 43.79, %D: 55.8. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 14.9

+DI: 24.04

-DI: 19.75

ADX: 14.9 (+DI: 24.04, -DI: 19.75). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -56.21

Williams %R: -56.21 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 69.85

Middle: 67.3

Lower: 64.76

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 69.85, Middle: 67.3, Lower: 64.76

Fundamental Analysis

Category	Current (BCFD)	Last Week	Last Year	3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day)	13314.0	13273.0	13300.0	12533.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	6136.0	5976.0	6871.0	6987.67
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	2698.0	3855.0	4186.0	4571.33
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day)	16911.0	16936.0	16407.0	16173.33
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	3438.0	2121.0	2685.0	2416.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	426691.0	418993.0	436485.0	433124.33
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	1660512.0	1653187.0	1665878.0	1651905.0
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	228405.0	231129.0	227422.0	222710.67
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	113536.0	109901.0	125313.0	117774.67

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (SEP 25) settled at $72.55, change $+0.02. WTI crude (SEP 25) settled at $67.33, change $-1.93. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $5.22 (Brent premium of $5.22). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$72.55

0.02

(SEP 25)

WTI Crude

$67.33

1.93

(SEP 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$5.22

Brent premium of $5.22

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC's sentiment appears cautious, reflecting concerns over market fluctuations and the need for careful management of supply and demand dynamics.

Key Themes

Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
Steady global economic growth with minor revisions to forecasts.
Stable growth in world oil demand, particularly in non-OECD countries.
Revised forecasts for non-OPEC liquids supply growth.
Fluctuations in refinery margins and tanker market dynamics.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric	Value/Forecast	Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025)	1.3 mb/d	Unchanged from last assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026)	1.3 mb/d	Unchanged from last assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025)	0.8 mb/d	Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026)	0.8 mb/d	Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025)	42.6 mb/d	Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026)	42.9 mb/d	Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation	173 mb below 2015–2019 average	March data
Crude Oil Production (April)	40.92 mb/d	Decreased by 106 tb/d m-o-m

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC emphasizes the importance of maintaining market stability through careful management of production levels and monitoring of global demand trends. The organization remains vigilant in adjusting its strategies to respond to fluctuations in both supply and demand, ensuring a balanced market environment.

Direct Quotes

"The global economic growth forecast remains a key factor influencing oil demand and supply dynamics."

"We must remain proactive in our approach to market management to ensure stability and predictability."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening

Positioning: Normal Range

Report Date: 2025-07-29

Managed Money

97,387

Change: -850

4.8% of OI

Producer/Merchant

291,111

Change: +5,021

14.3% of OI

Swap Dealers

-470,703

Change: -2,757

-23.2% of OI

Open Interest

2,028,873

Change: 15,569

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-07-29

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 2,028,873 contracts (+15,569)

Managed Money Net Position: 97,387 contracts (4.8% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -850 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 291,111 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -470,703 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH

Average Polarity: -0.7

Confidence: 1.0

Articles Analyzed: 33

Last Updated: 2025-08-03 23:48:40

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.7

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals

Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices

Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals

Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand

Risk Sentiment: Moderate market volatility

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.75

Daily: 0.06 (0.06%)

Weekly: -0.17 (-0.17%)

US_10Y

4.22

Daily: -0.14 (-3.21%)

Weekly: -0.2 (-4.52%)

SP500

6238.01

Daily: -101.38 (-1.6%)

Weekly: -151.76 (-2.38%)

VIX

20.38

Daily: 3.66 (21.89%)

Weekly: 5.35 (35.6%)

GOLD

3408.6

Daily: 60.9 (1.82%)

Weekly: 85.2 (2.56%)

COPPER

4.43

Daily: 0.02 (0.42%)

Weekly: -1.17 (-20.92%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $67.25

Closest Support: $66.87 0.57% below current price

Closest Resistance: $69.07 2.71% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $59.74

0.236 $64.14

0.382 $66.87 Support

0.5 $69.07 Resistance

0.618 $71.27

0.786 $74.41

1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $83.48

1.618 $89.93

2.0 $97.06

2.618 $108.59

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $67.33

Forecast Generated: 2025-08-03 23:48:42

Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.24%

Date	Prediction	Lower Bound	Upper Bound
2025-08-02	$67.17	$64.49	$69.84
2025-08-03	$67.04	$64.36	$69.71
2025-08-04	$67.06	$64.38	$69.73
2025-08-05	$67.14	$64.47	$69.82
2025-08-06	$67.25	$64.57	$69.93

ML Insights

Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.24% for the next trading day (2025-08-02), reaching $67.17.
The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-08-02 and 2025-08-06.
The average confidence interval width is ~8.0% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent bearish sentiment in the market, indicated by a sentiment score of -0.700, suggests a cautious approach to trading strategies. The Brent-WTI spread of $5.22 reflects ongoing supply/demand dynamics and geopolitical factors, which may present both opportunities and risks in the short term.

With the support levels for Brent around $66.46 and WTI at $62.96, traders should monitor these levels closely for potential rebounds or further declines. The narrowing spread indicates a potential convergence in pricing, which can lead to increased volatility.

Additionally, the short-term opportunities may arise from the strengthening backwardation in futures contracts, suggesting traders remain watchful for price spikes in the immediate future.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

Current bearish market sentiment and declining prices necessitate a reevaluation of production planning and hedging strategies. The OPEC Reference Basket value has dropped to $68.98/b, indicating a need for cost management and operational efficiency.

The increase in OECD commercial crude stocks by 21.4 mb signifies potential oversupply risks, which could further pressure prices. Producers should consider adjusting production levels to align with demand forecasts, particularly in non-OECD regions where growth is anticipated.

Hedging strategies should be revisited, particularly in light of the inventory levels and the downward revisions in supply growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

The current market dynamics suggest potential input cost fluctuations, particularly with WTI and Brent prices experiencing downward pressure. Consumers should prepare for supply reliability risks due to geopolitical tensions and changing inventory levels.

With US crude imports declining, averaging 5.8 mb/d, and product imports also down by 19% y-o-y, procurement strategies may need to adapt to ensure supply continuity.

Additionally, considering the hedging options in light of the bearish sentiment could be prudent to mitigate potential cost increases in the coming months.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently facing a bearish outlook, driven by a combination of fundamental, technical, and sentiment factors. The supply and demand balance is under pressure, with OECD inventories rising and demand growth primarily expected from non-OECD regions.

The bearish sentiment is further reinforced by declining prices across major benchmarks, with Brent and WTI both showing significant month-over-month declines.

Analysts should focus on the implications of the CFTC positioning data, which

480-Character Summary

Updated: 2025-08-03 23:45:59 Length: 480 chars

Crude oil prices have been volatile, initially rising due to geopolitical tensions but plummeting after a ceasefire and OPEC+ output increases, with a bearish outlook ahead. Key levels to watch are $66.84, with potential dips towards $50. Meanwhile, natural gas shows mixed signals; a heat dome could boost demand, but robust supply and lower December futures suggest caution. With Europe lagging in storage, prices might rebound to $4+, but watch for support at $3.449 as bear...