Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Neutral

Score: 1/5

Short: BUY | Medium: SELL | Long: BUY

International Prices

Brent: $70.04 $1.6

WTI: $66.71 $1.55

Spread: $3.33 (Brent premium of $3.33)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)

Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BULLISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 98,237

Weekly Change: 6,468

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 1 (Neutral)

Current Price: $69.09

Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $66.73

MA(20): $67.05

Current Price is 69.09, 9 day MA 66.73, 20 day MA 67.05

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: 0.0848

Signal: 0.088

Days since crossover: 25

MACD crossed the line 25 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 58.07

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 58.07 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 17,571

Avg (20d): 199,320

Ratio: 0.09

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 88.66

%D: 46.09

Stochastic %K: 88.66, %D: 46.09. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 12.93

+DI: 27.53

-DI: 17.17

ADX: 12.93 (+DI: 27.53, -DI: 17.17). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERBOUGHT

Value: -11.34

Williams %R: -11.34 (overbought)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BREAKOUT UPPER

Upper: 69.09

Middle: 67.05

Lower: 65.01

Price vs BBands (20, 2): breakout upper. Upper: 69.09, Middle: 67.05, Lower: 65.01

Fundamental Analysis

Category	Current (BCFD)	Last Week	Last Year	3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day)	13273.0	13375.0	13300.0	12533.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	5976.0	6379.0	7037.0	6467.33
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	3855.0	3518.0	3964.0	4441.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day)	16936.0	16849.0	16928.0	16304.0
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	2121.0	2861.0	3073.0	2025.67
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	418993.0	422162.0	440226.0	438463.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	1653187.0	1658540.0	1669754.0	1656358.0
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	231129.0	232867.0	232994.0	223384.33
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	109901.0	106970.0	128066.0	118328.67

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (SEP 25) settled at $70.04, change $+1.6. WTI crude (SEP 25) settled at $66.71, change $+1.55. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.33 (Brent premium of $3.33). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$70.04

1.6

(SEP 25)

WTI Crude

$66.71

1.55

(SEP 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$3.33

Brent premium of $3.33

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious optimism regarding the oil market outlook, despite recent price declines and mixed economic growth forecasts.

Key Themes

Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
Steady global economic growth with minor adjustments in forecasts.
Stable growth in world oil demand, particularly in non-OECD regions.
Revised forecasts for non-OPEC liquids supply growth.
Mixed performance in refining margins and product markets.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric	Value/Forecast	Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025)	1.3 mb/d	Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026)	1.3 mb/d	Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025)	0.8 mb/d	Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026)	0.8 mb/d	Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025)	42.6 mb/d	Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026)	42.9 mb/d	Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stocks (March)	2,740 mb	10.3 mb higher, m-o-m
OECD Commercial Crude Stocks	1,323 mb	139 mb less than 2015–2019 average
OECD Total Product Stocks	1,417 mb	34 mb below 2015–2019 average

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC remains committed to maintaining market stability and is closely monitoring global supply and demand dynamics. The organization is prepared to adjust its production strategies to respond to market changes and ensure a balanced oil market.

Direct Quotes

"The front end of the ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI and GME Oman forward curves strengthened further in April, reflecting traders’ optimism about the market outlook in the short-term."

"Demand for DoC crude is revised upward, indicating a positive adjustment in market expectations."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening

Positioning: Normal Range

Report Date: 2025-07-22

Managed Money

98,237

Change: +6,468

4.9% of OI

Producer/Merchant

286,090

Change: -17,329

14.2% of OI

Swap Dealers

-467,946

Change: +23,869

-23.2% of OI

Open Interest

2,013,304

Change: -55,795

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-07-22

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 2,013,304 contracts (-55,795)

Managed Money Net Position: 98,237 contracts (4.9% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +6,468 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 286,090 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -467,946 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BULLISH

Average Polarity: 0.7

Confidence: 1.0

Articles Analyzed: 44

Last Updated: 2025-07-29 23:48:49

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

0.7

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals

Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices

Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals

Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand

Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.79

Daily: 0.13 (0.13%)

Weekly: 1.58 (1.63%)

US_10Y

4.33

Daily: -0.09 (-2.04%)

Weekly: -0.06 (-1.32%)

SP500

6370.86

Daily: -18.91 (-0.3%)

Weekly: 11.95 (0.19%)

VIX

15.98

Daily: 0.95 (6.32%)

Weekly: 0.61 (3.97%)

GOLD

3325.3

Daily: 16.2 (0.49%)

Weekly: -68.8 (-2.03%)

COPPER

5.66

Daily: 0.07 (1.17%)

Weekly: -0.13 (-2.32%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $69.09

Closest Support: $66.85 3.24% below current price

Closest Resistance: $69.58 0.71% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $55.3

0.236 $60.75

0.382 $64.12

0.5 $66.85 Support

0.618 $69.58 Resistance

0.786 $73.46

1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $84.68

1.618 $92.68

2.0 $101.5

2.618 $115.78

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $69.21

Forecast Generated: 2025-07-29 23:48:51

Next Trading Day: UP 0.08%

Date	Prediction	Lower Bound	Upper Bound
2025-07-30	$69.26	$65.8	$72.73
2025-07-31	$69.21	$65.75	$72.68
2025-08-01	$69.2	$65.73	$72.67
2025-08-02	$69.06	$65.59	$72.52
2025-08-03	$68.91	$65.44	$72.38

ML Insights

Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
The model predicts a price increase of ~0.08% for the next trading day (2025-07-30), reaching $69.26.
The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-07-30 and 2025-08-03.
The average confidence interval width is ~10.0% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent decline in crude oil prices, with the $68.98 average for the OPEC Reference Basket, suggests a bearish sentiment in the short term. However, the backwardation in the forward curves indicates potential short-term optimism among traders. The narrowing of the Brent-WTI spread to $3.50 reflects shifting dynamics in global supply and demand, which may present trading opportunities for those looking to capitalize on price movements.

With managed money positioning indicating a bullish sentiment and the 2,013,304 contracts in open interest, traders should monitor for potential price reversals. Key support levels may form around recent lows, while resistance could be identified near the $70 mark.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The current market dynamics, with rising global oil demand expected to increase by 1.3 mb/d in 2025, might encourage producers to adjust their production planning accordingly. However, with 40.92 mb/d production from OPEC nations decreasing recently, producers need to consider their hedging strategies carefully to mitigate risks associated with price volatility.

The increase in OECD commercial crude inventories by 21.4 mb may signal a need for producers to manage their output levels to avoid oversupply in the market, which could further depress prices. The bearish sentiment from recent news may also necessitate adjustments in operational strategies.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

The recent fluctuations in crude oil prices suggest potential input cost fluctuations for consumers. With WTI prices settling at $66.71, procurement strategies should be re-evaluated to mitigate risks associated with price volatility. Additionally, the geopolitical tensions highlighted in news sentiment could impact supply reliability, necessitating contingency plans.

The decline in US product imports by 19% y-o-y may also affect product availability, making it crucial for consumers to assess their supply chains and consider hedging options to protect against potential shortages or price spikes.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently facing a complex interplay of factors. On one hand, the bullish sentiment from managed money positioning indicates potential upward price pressures, while the decline in prices and rising inventories suggest caution. The fundamentals show a slight increase in global demand, which may provide a counterbalance to the oversupply concerns stemming from OPEC's production cuts.

Analysts should closely monitor the impact of geopolitical developments, particularly regarding sanctions and trade relations, as these could significantly influence market dynamics. Overall, the outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with potential shifts depending on upcoming economic indicators and geopolitical events.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

480-Character Summary

Updated: 2025-07-29 23:45:57 Length: 480 chars

Crude oil prices recently surged amid geopolitical tensions involving Israel and Iran but quickly retreated following a ceasefire. OPEC+'s decision to increase output has led to bearish sentiment, with key levels to watch at $66.84 (pivot) and potential drops to $50 on the horizon. Conversely, natural gas is experiencing bullish trends due to heat waves and rising LNG exports, with a pivotal level at $3.449 and forecasts pushing prices towards $4. As traders balance these ...