Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-07-28 23:49

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Neutral
Score: 0/5
Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $68.44 $0.74
WTI: $65.16 $0.87
Spread: $3.28 (Brent premium of $3.28)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BULLISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 98,237
Weekly Change: 6,468

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 0 (Neutral)
Current Price: $66.71
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $66.42

MA(20): $66.87

Current Price is 66.71, 9 day MA 66.42, 20 day MA 66.87

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: -0.1336

Signal: 0.0888

Days since crossover: 24

MACD crossed the line 24 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 50.44

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 50.44 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 8,651

Avg (20d): 195,430

Ratio: 0.04

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 40.49

%D: 25.44

Stochastic %K: 40.49, %D: 25.44. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 12.11

+DI: 21.72

-DI: 19.03

ADX: 12.11 (+DI: 21.72, -DI: 19.03). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -59.51

Williams %R: -59.51 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 68.79

Middle: 66.87

Lower: 64.95

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 68.79, Middle: 66.87, Lower: 64.95

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13273.0 13375.0 13300.0 12533.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 5976.0 6379.0 7037.0 6467.33
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3855.0 3518.0 3964.0 4441.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 16936.0 16849.0 16928.0 16304.0
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2121.0 2861.0 3073.0 2025.67
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 418993.0 422162.0 440226.0 438463.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1653187.0 1658540.0 1669754.0 1656358.0
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 231129.0 232867.0 232994.0 223384.33
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 109901.0 106970.0 128066.0 118328.67

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (SEP 25) settled at $68.44, change $-0.74. WTI crude (SEP 25) settled at $65.16, change $-0.87. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.28 (Brent premium of $3.28). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$68.44
0.74
(SEP 25)

WTI Crude

$65.16
0.87
(SEP 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$3.28
Brent premium of $3.28

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC's sentiment appears cautiously optimistic as it navigates through fluctuating oil prices and steady global economic growth forecasts.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Steady global economic growth with minor adjustments in forecasts.
  • Stable growth in world oil demand, particularly in non-OECD regions.
  • Changes in oil supply forecasts from non-OPEC countries.
  • Variations in refining margins and tanker market dynamics.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015–2019 average Preliminary data for March
Compliance Levels N/A Not Mentioned

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC maintains a focus on market stability, with a commitment to adjusting production levels as necessary to respond to market dynamics and ensure a balanced supply-demand scenario, particularly as global economic growth continues to show resilience.

Direct Quotes

"The front end of the ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI and GME Oman forward curves strengthened further in April, reflecting traders’ optimism about the market outlook in the short-term."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-07-22

Managed Money

98,237
Change: +6,468
4.9% of OI

Producer/Merchant

286,090
Change: -17,329
14.2% of OI

Swap Dealers

-467,946
Change: +23,869
-23.2% of OI

Open Interest

2,013,304
Change: -55,795

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-07-22

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 2,013,304 contracts (-55,795)

Managed Money Net Position: 98,237 contracts (4.9% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +6,468 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 286,090 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -467,946 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.4
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 32
Last Updated: 2025-07-28 23:48:41

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.4

Top News Topics

Supply (1 articles)

Geopolitical (2 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.7
Daily: 1.05 (1.07%)
Weekly: 1.31 (1.34%)

US_10Y

4.42
Daily: 0.03 (0.78%)
Weekly: 0.08 (1.94%)

SP500

6389.77
Daily: 1.13 (0.02%)
Weekly: 80.15 (1.27%)

VIX

15.03
Daily: 0.1 (0.67%)
Weekly: -1.47 (-8.91%)

GOLD

3309.8
Daily: -24.2 (-0.73%)
Weekly: -129.4 (-3.76%)

COPPER

5.59
Daily: -0.17 (-2.99%)
Weekly: -0.11 (-1.86%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $66.71
Closest Support: $64.12 3.88% below current price
Closest Resistance: $66.85 0.21% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $55.3
0.236 $60.75
0.382 $64.12 Support
0.5 $66.85 Resistance
0.618 $69.58
0.786 $73.46
1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $84.68
1.618 $92.68
2.0 $101.5
2.618 $115.78

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $66.71
Forecast Generated: 2025-07-28 23:48:43
Next Trading Day: UP 0.09%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-07-29 $66.77 $63.45 $70.09
2025-07-30 $66.82 $63.5 $70.14
2025-07-31 $66.77 $63.45 $70.09
2025-08-01 $66.79 $63.47 $70.11
2025-08-02 $66.7 $63.38 $70.02

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.09% for the next trading day (2025-07-29), reaching $66.77.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-07-29 and 2025-08-02.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~9.9% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent decline in Crude Oil prices, with the OPEC Reference Basket averaging $68.98/b, indicates potential bearish sentiment in the short term. The narrowing of the Brent-WTI spread to $3.28 suggests a convergence in pricing dynamics, which may present risks for traders relying on arbitrage opportunities.

Traders should monitor the support levels around $62.00 and resistance levels near $66.50. The ML price predictions and managed money positioning indicate a potential for volatility, with managed money net positions increasing, suggesting a bullish trend may be forming.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

With global oil demand expected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2025, producers should focus on adjusting production plans accordingly. The bearish sentiment in the market, reflected in the decline of crude prices, may necessitate reevaluating hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations.

The increase in OECD commercial crude inventories by 21.4 mb month-over-month signals a need for careful management of production levels to avoid oversupply. Producers should also consider the impact of geopolitical factors and inventory trends on their operations and pricing strategies.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

The current bearish market sentiment and declining crude prices could lead to input cost fluctuations for consumers. With WTI and Brent prices showing a downward trend, procurement strategies should be revisited to capitalize on potential cost savings.

However, supply reliability risks remain due to geopolitical tensions and fluctuating inventory levels. Consumers should prepare for potential disruptions and consider hedging options to manage price volatility effectively.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by bearish sentiment driven by declining prices and increasing inventories. The balance of supply and demand indicates a slight upward revision in demand forecasts, but with a concurrent increase in supply, particularly from non-DoC countries.

Analysts should focus on the implications of the geopolitical landscape, particularly any developments related to OPEC and US policies, as these could significantly shift market dynamics. The mixed signals from technical indicators and positioning data suggest that while there may be short-term opportunities, caution is advised as the market navigates these complexities.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please consult a financial advisor for personalized guidance.

480-Character Summary

Updated: 2025-07-28 23:45:56 Length: 480 chars
Crude oil prices fluctuated amid geopolitical tensions but dropped after a ceasefire was reached, with OPEC+ increasing production quotas. The critical pivot point is $66.84, with bearish sentiment suggesting a potential drop to $50. Meanwhile, natural gas is facing downward pressure due to cooler temperature forecasts, despite bullish demand signals from a heat dome and rising LNG exports. Key support for natural gas is at $3.00, with a notable bearish outlook as December...

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-07-28 23:49

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