Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-07-26 23:47

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Neutral
Score: 0/5
Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $68.44 $0.74
WTI: $65.16 $0.87
Spread: $3.28 (Brent premium of $3.28)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 98,237
Weekly Change: 6,468

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 0 (Neutral)
Current Price: $65.16
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $66.4

MA(20): $66.79

Current Price is 65.16, 9 day MA 66.4, 20 day MA 66.79

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: -0.1683

Signal: 0.1444

Days since crossover: 23

MACD crossed the line 23 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 44.3

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 44.3 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

HIGHER

Current: 281,209

Avg (20d): 207,009

Ratio: 1.36

Volume is higher versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

OVERSOLD

%K: 9.11

%D: 15.59

Stochastic %K: 9.11, %D: 15.59. Signal: oversold

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 12.54

+DI: 21.98

-DI: 20.44

ADX: 12.54 (+DI: 21.98, -DI: 20.44). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERSOLD

Value: -90.89

Williams %R: -90.89 (oversold)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 68.86

Middle: 66.79

Lower: 64.72

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 68.86, Middle: 66.79, Lower: 64.72

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13273.0 13375.0 13300.0 12533.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 5976.0 6379.0 7037.0 6467.33
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3855.0 3518.0 3964.0 4441.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 16936.0 16849.0 16928.0 16304.0
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2121.0 2861.0 3073.0 2025.67
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 418993.0 422162.0 440226.0 438463.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1653187.0 1658540.0 1669754.0 1656358.0
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 231129.0 232867.0 232994.0 223384.33
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 109901.0 106970.0 128066.0 118328.67

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (SEP 25) settled at $68.44, change $-0.74. WTI crude (SEP 25) settled at $65.16, change $-0.87. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.28 (Brent premium of $3.28). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$68.44
0.74
(SEP 25)

WTI Crude

$65.16
0.87
(SEP 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$3.28
Brent premium of $3.28

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious yet optimistic sentiment regarding the oil market outlook, reflecting adjustments in demand and supply forecasts amid ongoing economic developments.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Steady global economic growth despite tariff-related challenges.
  • Stable growth in world oil demand, particularly in non-OECD countries.
  • Revised forecasts for non-OPEC liquids supply growth.
  • Changes in commercial oil inventories and their implications for market stability.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015-2019 average As of March
Compliance Level with Production Agreements N/A Not Mentioned

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC maintains a proactive stance on ensuring market stability, with adjustments to production levels and a focus on balancing supply and demand dynamics. The organization is closely monitoring global economic trends and their potential impact on oil demand and prices.

Direct Quotes

"The global economy continues to demonstrate a steady growth trend despite recent tariff-related developments."
"Demand for DoC crude is revised upward, reflecting a positive outlook for OPEC's market position."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-07-22

Managed Money

98,237
Change: +6,468
4.9% of OI

Producer/Merchant

286,090
Change: -17,329
14.2% of OI

Swap Dealers

-467,946
Change: +23,869
-23.2% of OI

Open Interest

2,013,304
Change: -55,795

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-07-22

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 2,013,304 contracts (-55,795)

Managed Money Net Position: 98,237 contracts (4.9% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +6,468 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 286,090 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -467,946 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.4
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 42
Last Updated: 2025-07-26 23:47:36

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.4

Top News Topics

Supply (4 articles)

Demand (2 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

97.65
Daily: 0.27 (0.28%)
Weekly: -0.2 (-0.2%)

US_10Y

4.39
Daily: -0.02 (-0.5%)
Weekly: 0.01 (0.32%)

SP500

6388.64
Daily: 25.29 (0.4%)
Weekly: 83.04 (1.32%)

VIX

14.93
Daily: -0.46 (-2.99%)
Weekly: -1.72 (-10.33%)

GOLD

3334.0
Daily: -37.0 (-1.1%)
Weekly: -67.9 (-2.0%)

COPPER

5.76
Daily: -0.01 (-0.23%)
Weekly: 0.15 (2.73%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $65.16
Closest Support: $64.12 1.6% below current price
Closest Resistance: $66.85 2.59% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $55.3
0.236 $60.75
0.382 $64.12 Support
0.5 $66.85 Resistance
0.618 $69.58
0.786 $73.46
1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $84.68
1.618 $92.68
2.0 $101.5
2.618 $115.78

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $65.16
Forecast Generated: 2025-07-26 23:47:38
Next Trading Day: UP 0.05%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-07-26 $65.19 $61.71 $68.67
2025-07-27 $65.26 $61.78 $68.73
2025-07-28 $65.31 $61.83 $68.79
2025-07-29 $65.28 $61.8 $68.76
2025-07-30 $65.32 $61.85 $68.8

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.05% for the next trading day (2025-07-26), reaching $65.19.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-07-26 and 2025-07-30.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~10.7% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

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For Energy Traders:

Current market dynamics indicate a bearish sentiment with a sentiment score of -0.400. The recent decline in crude oil prices, with the Brent settling at $68.44 and WTI at $65.16, suggests potential volatility ahead. The Fibonacci levels may provide critical support around $62.00 for WTI, while resistance is noted near $70.00 for Brent. The narrowing Brent-WTI spread of $3.28 indicates a tightening in global supply dynamics, which may present short-term trading opportunities as traders respond to market fluctuations.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

With the bearish market sentiment and a forecasted decline in global oil demand growth, producers should consider revising production plans to align with anticipated market conditions. The recent inventory increase of 21.4 mb in crude stocks suggests a need for hedging strategies to mitigate potential price drops. The impact of fluctuating crude and product inventories could significantly affect operations, emphasizing the importance of monitoring market sentiment closely.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations as the Brent and WTI prices remain volatile. The current bearish sentiment could lead to lower procurement costs, but geopolitical tensions and inventory levels may disrupt supply reliability. It is advisable to consider hedging strategies against possible price spikes in the near term, especially given the global demand outlook for refined products.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently influenced by a mix of bearish sentiments and fundamental imbalances. Key driving factors include declining prices, with Brent and WTI both experiencing significant month-on-month declines. The CFTC positioning indicates a normal range for managed money, suggesting potential market reversals could be on the horizon. Analysts should keep a close eye on geopolitical developments and the evolving supply-demand landscape, particularly in non-OECD countries, as these will shape future market dynamics.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-07-26 23:47

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