Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-07-23 23:48

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Neutral
Score: 0/5
Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $68.59 $0.62
WTI: $66.21 $0.99
Spread: $2.38 (Brent premium of $2.38)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

NEUTRAL

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 91,769
Weekly Change: 53,928

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 0 (Neutral)
Current Price: $65.47
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $66.9

MA(20): $66.78

Current Price is 65.47, 9 day MA 66.9, 20 day MA 66.78

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: 0.0258

Signal: 0.2947

Days since crossover: 21

MACD crossed the line 21 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 44.87

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 44.87 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 7,241

Avg (20d): 190,161

Ratio: 0.04

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 2.34

%D: 21.99

Stochastic %K: 2.34, %D: 21.99. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 13.93

+DI: 21.27

-DI: 20.92

ADX: 13.93 (+DI: 21.27, -DI: 20.92). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERSOLD

Value: -97.66

Williams %R: -97.66 (oversold)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 68.86

Middle: 66.78

Lower: 64.7

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 68.86, Middle: 66.78, Lower: 64.7

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13273.0 13375.0 13300.0 12533.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 5976.0 6379.0 7037.0 6467.33
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3855.0 3518.0 3964.0 4441.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 16936.0 16849.0 16928.0 16304.0
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2121.0 2861.0 3073.0 2025.67
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 418993.0 422162.0 440226.0 438463.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1653187.0 1658540.0 1669754.0 1656358.0
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 231129.0 232867.0 232994.0 223384.33
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 109901.0 106970.0 128066.0 118328.67

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (SEP 25) settled at $68.59, change $-0.62. WTI crude (AUG 25) settled at $66.21, change $-0.99. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $2.38 (Brent premium of $2.38). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$68.59
0.62
(SEP 25)

WTI Crude

$66.21
0.99
(AUG 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$2.38
Brent premium of $2.38

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC's sentiment appears cautious as it navigates through declining crude oil prices and mixed economic growth forecasts, while remaining optimistic about short-term market outlooks.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Steady global economic growth despite recent challenges.
  • Stable world oil demand growth projections for 2025 and 2026.
  • Revised forecasts for non-OPEC liquids supply growth.
  • Changes in crude and refined product trade dynamics.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d from last month’s assessment
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015–2019 average As of March
Compliance Levels with Production Agreements N/A Not Mentioned

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC remains focused on maintaining market stability amidst fluctuating prices and varying demand forecasts. The organization is likely to continue monitoring global economic indicators and adjust its production strategies accordingly to support a balanced oil market.

Direct Quotes

"The front end of the ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI and GME Oman forward curves strengthened further in April, reflecting traders’ optimism about the market outlook in the short-term."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-07-15

Managed Money

91,769
Change: -53,928
4.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

303,419
Change: +30,522
14.7% of OI

Swap Dealers

-491,815
Change: +17,702
-23.8% of OI

Open Interest

2,069,099
Change: 77,874

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-07-15

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 2,069,099 contracts (+77,874)

Managed Money Net Position: 91,769 contracts (4.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -53,928 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 303,419 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -491,815 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

NEUTRAL
Average Polarity: 0.0
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 78
Last Updated: 2025-07-23 23:47:38

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

0.0

Top News Topics

Supply (8 articles)

Demand (9 articles)

Geopolitical (7 articles)

Weather (1 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

97.15
Daily: -0.24 (-0.25%)
Weekly: -1.58 (-1.6%)

US_10Y

4.39
Daily: 0.05 (1.2%)
Weekly: -0.07 (-1.68%)

SP500

6358.91
Daily: 49.29 (0.78%)
Weekly: 61.55 (0.98%)

VIX

15.37
Daily: -1.13 (-6.85%)
Weekly: -1.15 (-6.96%)

GOLD

3387.3
Daily: -51.9 (-1.51%)
Weekly: 47.2 (1.41%)

COPPER

5.85
Daily: 0.16 (2.76%)
Weekly: 0.37 (6.72%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $65.47
Closest Support: $64.12 2.06% below current price
Closest Resistance: $66.85 2.11% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $55.3
0.236 $60.75
0.382 $64.12 Support
0.5 $66.85 Resistance
0.618 $69.58
0.786 $73.46
1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $84.68
1.618 $92.68
2.0 $101.5
2.618 $115.78

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $65.25
Forecast Generated: 2025-07-23 23:47:40
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.08%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-07-24 $65.2 $61.24 $69.16
2025-07-25 $65.23 $61.28 $69.19
2025-07-26 $65.27 $61.31 $69.22
2025-07-27 $65.34 $61.38 $69.29
2025-07-28 $65.39 $61.43 $69.34

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.08% for the next trading day (2025-07-24), reaching $65.20.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-07-24 and 2025-07-28.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~12.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent price movements show a decline in crude oil prices, with $68.98 for the OPEC Reference Basket and $66.46 for ICE Brent. The bearish sentiment is reflected in the $2.38 Brent-WTI spread, indicating ongoing supply-demand dynamics that favor Brent. Traders should watch for potential support levels around the recent lows, as the market is currently in a bearish phase, but the backwardation in the forward curves suggests short-term bullish opportunities. Monitor the risks associated with geopolitical tensions and inventory fluctuations that could lead to volatility in the near term.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

Producers should consider the implications of the current balance between supply and demand, as global oil demand is projected to rise by 1.3 mb/d in 2025. However, the downward revision of non-DoC liquids supply growth indicates that hedging strategies may be essential to mitigate price risks. The increase in crude stocks by 21.4 mb could pressure prices further, suggesting a need for careful production planning. The bearish sentiment in news sentiment and inventory levels should be factored into operational decisions.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations as WTI and Brent prices face downward pressure. The recent decline in US crude imports and the slight increase in product exports may impact supply reliability. With geopolitical factors and inventory levels influencing market dynamics, procurement strategies should account for possible hedging to stabilize costs. Additionally, the bearish sentiment in demand forecasts indicates that consumers should remain vigilant about potential price increases in the future.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently facing a bearish sentiment driven by supply concerns and geopolitical tensions. The balance of supply and demand shows a slight upward revision in demand forecasts, but the overall sentiment remains cautious. Key driving factors include the declining prices, the narrowing Brent-WTI spread, and inventory levels that are below historical averages. Analysts should closely monitor the ML forecasts for potential shifts in market dynamics as economic growth forecasts remain mixed across regions.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-07-23 23:48

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