Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-07-21 23:48

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Neutral
Score: 0/5
Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $69.28 $0.24
WTI: $67.34 $0.2
Spread: $1.94 (Brent premium of $1.94)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 91,769
Weekly Change: 53,928

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 0 (Neutral)
Current Price: $66.6
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $67.2

MA(20): $66.63

Current Price is 66.6, 9 day MA 67.2, 20 day MA 66.63

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: 0.2161

Signal: 0.4017

Days since crossover: 19

MACD crossed the line 19 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 48.99

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 48.99 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 184

Avg (20d): 213,248

Ratio: 0.0

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 31.0

%D: 47.88

Stochastic %K: 31.0, %D: 47.88. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 15.69

+DI: 23.26

-DI: 18.38

ADX: 15.69 (+DI: 23.26, -DI: 18.38). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -69.0

Williams %R: -69.0 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 69.0

Middle: 66.63

Lower: 64.25

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 69.0, Middle: 66.63, Lower: 64.25

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13375.0 13385.0 13300.0 12500.0
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 6379.0 6013.0 6760.0 6910.0
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3518.0 2757.0 3999.0 3845.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 16849.0 17006.0 17109.0 16610.67
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2861.0 3256.0 2761.0 3064.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 422162.0 426021.0 445096.0 441418.33
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1658540.0 1649494.0 1658697.0 1660766.0
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 232867.0 229468.0 229666.0 226605.0
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 106970.0 102797.0 124612.0 119589.33

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (SEP 25) settled at $69.28, change $-0.24. WTI crude (AUG 25) settled at $67.34, change $-0.2. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $1.94 (Brent premium of $1.94). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$69.28
0.24
(SEP 25)

WTI Crude

$67.34
0.2
(AUG 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$1.94
Brent premium of $1.94

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC's sentiment appears cautiously optimistic, reflecting a steady growth in global oil demand and a slight recovery in crude oil prices, despite some downward revisions in economic forecasts.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Steady global economic growth with minor revisions in forecasts.
  • Stable growth in world oil demand, particularly in non-OECD regions.
  • Adjustments in non-OPEC liquids supply growth forecasts.
  • Mixed trends in product markets and refining operations.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015–2019 average As of March
Compliance Levels with Production Agreements 106 tb/d decrease in April Average production at 40.92 mb/d

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC maintains a focus on market stability, with an emphasis on monitoring global economic conditions and adjusting production levels as necessary to align with demand forecasts. The organization is committed to supporting price recovery while ensuring that supply remains balanced with demand.

Direct Quotes

"The global economy continues to demonstrate a steady growth trend despite recent tariff-related developments."
"Demand for DoC crude is revised upward, reflecting a positive outlook for OPEC's market position."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-07-15

Managed Money

91,769
Change: -53,928
4.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

303,419
Change: +30,522
14.7% of OI

Swap Dealers

-491,815
Change: +17,702
-23.8% of OI

Open Interest

2,069,099
Change: 77,874

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-07-15

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 2,069,099 contracts (+77,874)

Managed Money Net Position: 91,769 contracts (4.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -53,928 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 303,419 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -491,815 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.4
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 47
Last Updated: 2025-07-21 23:47:47

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.4

Top News Topics

Supply (2 articles)

Demand (2 articles)

Geopolitical (7 articles)

Weather (1 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

97.91
Daily: -0.57 (-0.57%)
Weekly: -0.71 (-0.72%)

US_10Y

4.37
Daily: -0.06 (-1.35%)
Weekly: -0.12 (-2.61%)

SP500

6305.6
Daily: 8.81 (0.14%)
Weekly: 61.84 (0.99%)

VIX

16.65
Daily: 0.24 (1.46%)
Weekly: -0.73 (-4.2%)

GOLD

3403.2
Daily: 50.2 (1.5%)
Weekly: 73.4 (2.2%)

COPPER

5.61
Daily: 0.03 (0.48%)
Weekly: 0.06 (1.06%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $66.6
Closest Support: $64.12 3.72% below current price
Closest Resistance: $66.85 0.38% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $55.3
0.236 $60.75
0.382 $64.12 Support
0.5 $66.85 Resistance
0.618 $69.58
0.786 $73.46
1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $84.68
1.618 $92.68
2.0 $101.5
2.618 $115.78

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $67.2
Forecast Generated: 2025-07-21 23:47:49
Next Trading Day: UP 0.02%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-07-22 $67.22 $63.12 $71.31
2025-07-23 $67.21 $63.11 $71.31
2025-07-24 $67.15 $63.05 $71.25
2025-07-25 $67.16 $63.07 $71.26
2025-07-26 $67.17 $63.07 $71.27

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.02% for the next trading day (2025-07-22), reaching $67.22.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-07-22 and 2025-07-26.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~12.2% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent bearish sentiment in the crude oil market, reflected by a sentiment score of -0.400, suggests potential downward pressure on prices. The $69.28 for Brent and $67.34 for WTI indicate a narrowing Brent-WTI spread of $1.94, which could signify tightening supply dynamics in the U.S. compared to global markets.

With managed money positions showing a decline of -53,928 contracts, there may be increased volatility ahead. Traders should monitor Fibonacci levels for potential support around $62.96 (WTI) and $66.46 (Brent) as critical thresholds.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The current market sentiment is bearish, which may influence production planning and hedging strategies. With crude inventories rising to 2,740 mb, and crude production from OPEC countries decreasing by 106 tb/d, producers should consider adjusting output levels to align with demand forecasts that remain steady at 42.6 mb/d in 2025.

The hedging strategies should be reassessed in light of the oversupply concerns highlighted in recent news articles, which could further impact pricing.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Input cost fluctuations are a key concern, with WTI and Brent prices currently at $67.34 and $69.28 respectively. The geopolitical risks related to supply reliability, particularly with ongoing EU sanctions on Russia, should be closely monitored as they may affect procurement strategies.

Additionally, the decline in product imports by 19% y-o-y indicates potential pressure on availability, which may necessitate proactive procurement approaches to mitigate risks associated with supply disruptions.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently facing a bearish outlook driven by increasing global oil supply and declining managed money positions. The sentiment score of -0.400 reflects the prevailing concerns regarding oversupply, as evidenced by the 2,740 mb in OECD commercial oil inventories.

Key driving factors include steady demand growth in non-OECD countries and a potential oversupply scenario. Analysts should prepare for possible shifts in market sentiment as geopolitical developments unfold and monitor the implications on price forecasts and trading strategies.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations. Please consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-07-21 23:48

© 2025 Energy Research - All Rights Reserved