Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-07-17 23:48

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Neutral
Score: 1/5
Short: BUY | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $68.52 $0.19
WTI: $66.38 $0.14
Spread: $2.14 (Brent premium of $2.14)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 145,697
Weekly Change: 28,936

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 1 (Neutral)
Current Price: $67.44
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $67.44

MA(20): $67.1

Current Price is 67.44, 9 day MA 67.44, 20 day MA 67.1

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: 0.2882

Signal: 0.487

Days since crossover: 17

MACD crossed the line 17 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 52.04

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 52.04 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 3,314

Avg (20d): 268,945

Ratio: 0.01

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 57.09

%D: 44.27

Stochastic %K: 57.09, %D: 44.27. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 15.9

+DI: 21.08

-DI: 17.85

ADX: 15.9 (+DI: 21.08, -DI: 17.85). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -42.91

Williams %R: -42.91 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 71.47

Middle: 67.1

Lower: 62.73

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 71.47, Middle: 67.1, Lower: 62.73

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13375.0 13385.0 13300.0 12500.0
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 6379.0 6013.0 6760.0 6910.0
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3518.0 2757.0 3999.0 3845.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 16849.0 17006.0 17109.0 16610.67
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2861.0 3256.0 2761.0 3064.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 422162.0 426021.0 445096.0 441418.33
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1658540.0 1649494.0 1658697.0 1660766.0
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 232867.0 229468.0 229666.0 226605.0
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 106970.0 102797.0 124612.0 119589.33

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (SEP 25) settled at $68.52, change $-0.19. WTI crude (AUG 25) settled at $66.38, change $-0.14. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $2.14 (Brent premium of $2.14). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$68.52
0.19
(SEP 25)

WTI Crude

$66.38
0.14
(AUG 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$2.14
Brent premium of $2.14

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious yet optimistic sentiment regarding the oil market, acknowledging challenges while highlighting positive short-term trends.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Steady growth in global oil demand despite economic uncertainties.
  • Revisions in non-OPEC liquids supply growth forecasts.
  • Mixed performance in refining margins across different regions.
  • Changes in commercial oil inventories and their implications for market stability.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stocks Deviation 173 mb below 2015–2019 average As of March
Compliance Levels with Production Agreements N/A Not Mentioned

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC remains committed to ensuring market stability through careful monitoring of supply and demand dynamics, while also adjusting production levels as necessary to respond to changing market conditions.

Direct Quotes

"The front end of the ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI and GME Oman forward curves strengthened further in April, reflecting traders’ optimism about the market outlook in the short-term."
"Demand for DoC crude is revised upward, indicating a positive adjustment in our market outlook."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-07-08

Managed Money

145,697
Change: -28,936
7.3% of OI

Producer/Merchant

272,897
Change: +14,698
13.7% of OI

Swap Dealers

-509,517
Change: +12,577
-25.6% of OI

Open Interest

1,991,225
Change: 1,785

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-07-08

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,991,225 contracts (+1,785)

Managed Money Net Position: 145,697 contracts (7.3% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -28,936 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 272,897 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -509,517 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.4
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 89
Last Updated: 2025-07-17 23:47:33

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.4

Top News Topics

Supply (9 articles)

Demand (7 articles)

Geopolitical (9 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.45
Daily: 0.06 (0.06%)
Weekly: 0.6 (0.61%)

US_10Y

4.46
Daily: 0.01 (0.18%)
Weekly: 0.04 (0.9%)

SP500

6297.36
Daily: 33.66 (0.54%)
Weekly: 37.61 (0.6%)

VIX

16.52
Daily: -0.64 (-3.73%)
Weekly: 0.12 (0.73%)

GOLD

3341.0
Daily: -11.5 (-0.34%)
Weekly: -15.0 (-0.45%)

COPPER

5.52
Daily: 0.03 (0.5%)
Weekly: -0.04 (-0.68%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $67.44
Closest Support: $66.85 0.87% below current price
Closest Resistance: $69.58 3.17% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $55.3
0.236 $60.75
0.382 $64.12
0.5 $66.85 Support
0.618 $69.58 Resistance
0.786 $73.46
1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $84.68
1.618 $92.68
2.0 $101.5
2.618 $115.78

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $67.54
Forecast Generated: 2025-07-17 23:47:36
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.11%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-07-18 $67.46 $63.36 $71.57
2025-07-19 $67.54 $63.44 $71.64
2025-07-20 $67.55 $63.45 $71.66
2025-07-21 $67.55 $63.44 $71.65
2025-07-22 $67.49 $63.38 $71.59

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.11% for the next trading day (2025-07-18), reaching $67.46.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-07-18 and 2025-07-22.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~12.2% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

Current market dynamics indicate a bearish sentiment with a sentiment score of -0.400. The Brent-WTI spread is currently at $2.14, reflecting ongoing differences in global supply/demand dynamics. Traders should monitor the narrowing of this spread as it may indicate shifting market conditions.

With the front-month contracts showing a decline of approximately 7% month-over-month, traders should be cautious of potential volatility in the near term. The Fibonacci support levels may be tested around $62.00 for WTI and $66.00 for Brent, while resistance could be seen near $70.00 for both benchmarks.

Short-term opportunities may arise from the strengthening backwardation in the forward curves, indicating trader optimism about short-term price recovery.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

With a balanced demand forecast for 2025 and 2026, producers should consider adjusting production planning to align with the projected increase of 1.3 mb/d in global oil demand.

The decline in OECD commercial crude stocks to 1,323 mb, which is 139 mb below the 2015-2019 average, suggests a tightening supply scenario that may warrant strategic hedging to mitigate price risks.

Market sentiment, particularly the weakening positioning among managed money traders, should also be factored into operational strategies, as it may impact price recovery prospects.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs as WTI and Brent prices remain under pressure, with current levels around $62.96 for WTI and $66.46 for Brent.

Supply reliability risks are heightened due to geopolitical factors and the recent decline in global refinery intake, which fell by 1.2 mb/d month-over-month. This could affect procurement strategies, necessitating consideration for hedging against price spikes.

Additionally, the decline in product inventories may lead to tighter supply conditions, impacting operational costs and margins.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a bearish sentiment driven by various factors including declining prices, inventory levels, and geopolitical uncertainties. The balance of supply and demand indicates a slight upward revision in demand for DoC crude, suggesting potential for price stabilization in the medium term.

Key driving factors include:

  • Technical indicators showing weakening momentum in price trends.
  • Geopolitical risks affecting supply dynamics, particularly in key exporting regions.
  • Managed money positioning indicating a shift towards caution among speculative traders.

Overall, while the market faces short-term challenges, the long-term outlook may shift positively if demand forecasts hold true, particularly in

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-07-17 23:48

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