Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-07-15 23:48

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Neutral
Score: -1/5
Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $69.21 $1.15
WTI: $66.98 $1.47
Spread: $2.23 (Brent premium of $2.23)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 145,697
Weekly Change: 28,936

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -1 (Neutral)
Current Price: $66.77
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $67.43

MA(20): $67.92

Current Price is 66.77, 9 day MA 67.43, 20 day MA 67.92

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: 0.4029

Signal: 0.6038

Days since crossover: 15

MACD crossed the line 15 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 49.72

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 49.72 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 6,201

Avg (20d): 251,749

Ratio: 0.02

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 44.08

%D: 60.77

Stochastic %K: 44.08, %D: 60.77. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 17.84

+DI: 21.16

-DI: 15.83

ADX: 17.84 (+DI: 21.16, -DI: 15.83). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -55.92

Williams %R: -55.92 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 74.34

Middle: 67.92

Lower: 61.5

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 74.34, Middle: 67.92, Lower: 61.5

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13385.0 13433.0 13200.0 12533.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 6013.0 6919.0 6547.0 6438.33
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2757.0 2305.0 4401.0 3055.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 17006.0 17105.0 16792.0 16802.67
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3256.0 4614.0 2146.0 3382.67
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 426021.0 418951.0 448539.0 443426.0
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1649494.0 1642845.0 1655662.0 1658750.0
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 229468.0 232126.0 231672.0 224685.0
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 102797.0 103622.0 119728.0 118865.33

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (SEP 25) settled at $69.21, change $-1.15. WTI crude (AUG 25) settled at $66.98, change $-1.47. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $2.23 (Brent premium of $2.23). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$69.21
1.15
(SEP 25)

WTI Crude

$66.98
1.47
(AUG 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$2.23
Brent premium of $2.23

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC's sentiment appears cautious, reflecting concerns over fluctuating oil prices and the impact of global economic growth on demand.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices and market volatility.
  • Steady global economic growth with minor revisions in forecasts.
  • Stable growth in world oil demand, particularly in non-OECD countries.
  • Adjustments in non-OPEC liquids supply forecasts.
  • Fluctuations in refinery margins and product market dynamics.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth 2025 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth 2026 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth 2025 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth 2026 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude 2025 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude 2026 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015–2019 average OECD commercial oil inventories at 2,740 mb
Compliance Levels Not Mentioned N/A

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC maintains a focus on market stability, highlighting the need for careful monitoring of global economic indicators and oil demand trends. The organization is poised to make adjustments to production levels as necessary to balance supply and demand in the market.

Direct Quotes

"The global economic growth forecast for 2025 is revised down slightly to 2.9%, but the growth forecast for 2026 remains at 3.1%."
"Demand for DoC crude is revised upward by about 0.1 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 42.6 mb/d in 2025."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-07-08

Managed Money

145,697
Change: -28,936
7.3% of OI

Producer/Merchant

272,897
Change: +14,698
13.7% of OI

Swap Dealers

-509,517
Change: +12,577
-25.6% of OI

Open Interest

1,991,225
Change: 1,785

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-07-08

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,991,225 contracts (+1,785)

Managed Money Net Position: 145,697 contracts (7.3% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -28,936 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 272,897 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -509,517 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.4
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 49
Last Updated: 2025-07-15 23:47:36

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.4

Top News Topics

Supply (2 articles)

Demand (2 articles)

Geopolitical (7 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.59
Daily: 0.51 (0.52%)
Weekly: 1.12 (1.15%)

US_10Y

4.49
Daily: 0.06 (1.4%)
Weekly: 0.15 (3.39%)

SP500

6243.76
Daily: -24.8 (-0.4%)
Weekly: -19.5 (-0.31%)

VIX

17.38
Daily: 0.18 (1.05%)
Weekly: 1.44 (9.03%)

GOLD

3340.9
Daily: -10.6 (-0.32%)
Weekly: 29.3 (0.88%)

COPPER

5.55
Daily: 0.03 (0.56%)
Weekly: 0.1 (1.88%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $66.77
Closest Support: $64.12 3.97% below current price
Closest Resistance: $66.85 0.12% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $55.3
0.236 $60.75
0.382 $64.12 Support
0.5 $66.85 Resistance
0.618 $69.58
0.786 $73.46
1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $84.68
1.618 $92.68
2.0 $101.5
2.618 $115.78

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $66.52
Forecast Generated: 2025-07-15 23:47:38
Next Trading Day: UP 0.02%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-07-16 $66.53 $62.43 $70.64
2025-07-17 $66.61 $62.5 $70.72
2025-07-18 $66.54 $62.44 $70.65
2025-07-19 $66.62 $62.51 $70.73
2025-07-20 $66.64 $62.53 $70.75

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.02% for the next trading day (2025-07-16), reaching $66.53.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-07-16 and 2025-07-20.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~12.3% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent decline in crude oil prices, with the $68.98 average for the OPEC Reference Basket and $66.46 for ICE Brent, signals a bearish sentiment in the market. The narrowing of the Brent-WTI spread to $2.23 indicates a slight adjustment in supply/demand dynamics, which could present risks for traders looking for short-term opportunities.

The support levels to monitor are around $62.96 (NYMEX WTI) and $66.46 (Brent), while resistance may be seen at levels above these prices. The backwardation in forward curves suggests some optimism, but volatility is likely given the current bearish sentiment reflected in the news and positioning data.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The current bearish sentiment and declining crude prices may affect production planning. With OECD commercial crude inventories increasing to 2,740 mb, producers should consider adjusting their hedging strategies to mitigate potential losses. The slight decrease in production from DoC countries could provide some support, but the overall outlook remains cautious.

Given the balance between supply and demand, with DoC crude demand revised upwards, producers should keep an eye on inventory levels and the potential for price recovery in the medium term. Market sentiment is currently weak, which could impact operational decisions moving forward.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

With crude prices averaging $66.98 for WTI and $69.21 for Brent, consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations. The declining demand in OECD regions and rising inventories may provide some price relief, but geopolitical tensions could still pose supply reliability risks.

The current bearish sentiment in the market indicates that procurement strategies should be flexible. Consumers may benefit from monitoring the market trends and considering hedging options to manage costs effectively.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently influenced by a mix of bearish sentiment driven by inventory increases and a lack of fresh demand catalysts. The balance between supply and demand remains delicate, with non-DoC liquids supply growth forecasted to slow.

Key drivers include the bearish news sentiment and the positioning data indicating weakening bullish trends among managed money traders. Analysts should keep a close watch on geopolitical developments and economic indicators that could shift the outlook in the coming months.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-07-15 23:48

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