Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Neutral

Score: -1/5

Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $70.36 $1.72

WTI: $68.45 $1.88

Spread: $1.91 (Brent premium of $1.91)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)

Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BULLISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 145,697

Weekly Change: 28,936

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -1 (Neutral)

Current Price: $66.64

Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $67.47

MA(20): $68.15

Current Price is 66.64, 9 day MA 67.47, 20 day MA 68.15

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: 0.462

Signal: 0.6486

Days since crossover: 14

MACD crossed the line 14 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 49.4

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 49.4 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 7,259

Avg (20d): 256,974

Ratio: 0.03

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 48.2

%D: 52.04

Stochastic %K: 48.2, %D: 52.04. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 17.68

+DI: 19.39

-DI: 16.18

ADX: 17.68 (+DI: 19.39, -DI: 16.18). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -51.8

Williams %R: -51.8 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 74.77

Middle: 68.15

Lower: 61.53

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 74.77, Middle: 68.15, Lower: 61.53

Fundamental Analysis

Category	Current (BCFD)	Last Week	Last Year	3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day)	13385.0	13433.0	13200.0	12533.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	6013.0	6919.0	6547.0	6438.33
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	2757.0	2305.0	4401.0	3055.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day)	17006.0	17105.0	16792.0	16802.67
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	3256.0	4614.0	2146.0	3382.67
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	426021.0	418951.0	448539.0	443426.0
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	1649494.0	1642845.0	1655662.0	1658750.0
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	229468.0	232126.0	231672.0	224685.0
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	102797.0	103622.0	119728.0	118865.33

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (SEP 25) settled at $70.36, change $+1.72. WTI crude (AUG 25) settled at $68.45, change $+1.88. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $1.91 (Brent premium of $1.91). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$70.36

1.72

(SEP 25)

WTI Crude

$68.45

1.88

(AUG 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$1.91

Brent premium of $1.91

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious optimism regarding the oil market, noting steady demand growth despite some downward revisions in economic forecasts.

Key Themes

Decline in crude oil prices and market outlook.
Steady global economic growth with minor revisions.
World oil demand projected to grow steadily.
Non-OPEC supply growth forecasts revised down slightly.
Changes in commercial oil inventories and refining margins.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric	Value/Forecast	Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025)	1.3 mb/d	Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025)	0.8 mb/d	Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025)	42.6 mb/d	Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation from 5-year average	173 mb below	As of March
Crude Oil Production (April)	40.92 mb/d	Decrease of 106 tb/d m-o-m
Compliance Levels with Production Agreements	N/A	Not Mentioned

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC remains focused on maintaining market stability and is prepared to adjust production levels as necessary to respond to changing demand dynamics. The organization emphasizes the importance of cooperation among member countries to navigate the current market challenges.

Direct Quotes

"The demand for DoC crude has been revised upward, reflecting a positive outlook for the coming years."

"Despite some economic uncertainties, the overall growth trend in oil demand remains intact."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening

Positioning: Normal Range

Report Date: 2025-07-08

Managed Money

145,697

Change: -28,936

7.3% of OI

Producer/Merchant

272,897

Change: +14,698

13.7% of OI

Swap Dealers

-509,517

Change: +12,577

-25.6% of OI

Open Interest

1,991,225

Change: 1,785

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-07-08

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,991,225 contracts (+1,785)

Managed Money Net Position: 145,697 contracts (7.3% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -28,936 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 272,897 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -509,517 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BULLISH

Average Polarity: 0.4

Confidence: 1.0

Articles Analyzed: 53

Last Updated: 2025-07-14 23:47:34

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

0.4

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds

Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices

Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals

Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand

Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.05

Daily: 0.2 (0.2%)

Weekly: 0.54 (0.55%)

US_10Y

4.43

Daily: 0.0 (0.09%)

Weekly: 0.01 (0.27%)

SP500

6268.56

Daily: 8.81 (0.14%)

Weekly: 43.04 (0.69%)

VIX

17.2

Daily: 0.8 (4.88%)

Weekly: 0.39 (2.32%)

GOLD

3365.4

Daily: 9.4 (0.28%)

Weekly: 58.4 (1.77%)

COPPER

5.52

Daily: -0.04 (-0.76%)

Weekly: -0.12 (-2.21%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $66.64

Closest Support: $64.12 3.78% below current price

Closest Resistance: $66.85 0.32% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $55.3

0.236 $60.75

0.382 $64.12 Support

0.5 $66.85 Resistance

0.618 $69.58

0.786 $73.46

1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $84.68

1.618 $92.68

2.0 $101.5

2.618 $115.78

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $66.98

Forecast Generated: 2025-07-14 23:47:36

Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.01%

Date	Prediction	Lower Bound	Upper Bound
2025-07-15	$66.97	$62.86	$71.08
2025-07-16	$66.98	$62.87	$71.09
2025-07-17	$67.06	$62.95	$71.17
2025-07-18	$66.99	$62.88	$71.1
2025-07-19	$67.06	$62.95	$71.17

ML Insights

Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.01% for the next trading day (2025-07-15), reaching $66.97.
The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-07-15 and 2025-07-19.
The average confidence interval width is ~12.3% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent decline in crude oil prices across major benchmarks, including a drop of $5.02 for the OPEC Reference Basket, suggests potential volatility in the short term. The narrowing of the $3.50 Brent-WTI spread reflects changes in supply-demand dynamics, which may present opportunities for arbitrage. Traders should monitor Fibonacci levels for potential support at $62.00 and resistance around $70.00. Furthermore, the weakening managed money positioning indicates that speculative sentiment is shifting, which could lead to further price corrections or rebounds.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The balance between supply and demand indicates a slight upward revision in demand for DoC crude, reaching 42.6 mb/d in 2025. However, with increased inventories and a decline in prices, producers should reassess their production planning and hedging strategies to mitigate risks. The market sentiment remains cautious, emphasizing the need for strategic adjustments in response to potential oversupply.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

With the recent fluctuations in crude prices, consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations, particularly as WTI and Brent prices hover around $68.45 and $70.36 respectively. The geopolitical landscape and inventory levels could impact supply reliability, necessitating a review of procurement strategies. Maintaining flexibility in hedging practices could mitigate exposure to rising costs.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently shaped by a mix of bullish sentiment due to strong demand forecasts and bearish pressures from oversupply concerns and inventory builds. The fundamental balance indicates a slight increase in demand against a backdrop of declining prices, suggesting shifts in market dynamics. Analysts should focus on the implications of geopolitical developments and the ML forecasts that suggest potential volatility in price movements.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.