Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-07-13 23:48

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Neutral
Score: 0/5
Short: BUY | Medium: SELL | Long: BUY

International Prices

Brent: $70.36 $1.72
WTI: $68.45 $1.88
Spread: $1.91 (Brent premium of $1.91)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 145,697
Weekly Change: 28,936

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 0 (Neutral)
Current Price: $68.45
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $67.67

MA(20): $68.24

Current Price is 68.45, 9 day MA 67.67, 20 day MA 68.24

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: 0.6064

Signal: 0.6775

Days since crossover: 14

MACD crossed the line 14 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 55.0

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 55.0 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 10,183

Avg (20d): 258,738

Ratio: 0.04

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 88.76

%D: 65.56

Stochastic %K: 88.76, %D: 65.56. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 17.77

+DI: 20.71

-DI: 16.83

ADX: 17.77 (+DI: 20.71, -DI: 16.83). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERBOUGHT

Value: -11.24

Williams %R: -11.24 (overbought)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 74.83

Middle: 68.24

Lower: 61.66

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 74.83, Middle: 68.24, Lower: 61.66

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13385.0 13433.0 13200.0 12533.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 6013.0 6919.0 6547.0 6438.33
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2757.0 2305.0 4401.0 3055.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 17006.0 17105.0 16792.0 16802.67
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3256.0 4614.0 2146.0 3382.67
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 426021.0 418951.0 448539.0 443426.0
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1649494.0 1642845.0 1655662.0 1658750.0
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 229468.0 232126.0 231672.0 224685.0
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 102797.0 103622.0 119728.0 118865.33

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (SEP 25) settled at $70.36, change $+1.72. WTI crude (AUG 25) settled at $68.45, change $+1.88. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $1.91 (Brent premium of $1.91). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$70.36
1.72
(SEP 25)

WTI Crude

$68.45
1.88
(AUG 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$1.91
Brent premium of $1.91

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious yet optimistic sentiment regarding the oil market, highlighting steady demand growth amidst recent price declines.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Steady global economic growth forecasts, with minor revisions.
  • Stable growth in world oil demand, particularly in non-OECD regions.
  • Adjustments in non-OPEC liquids supply growth forecasts.
  • Fluctuations in refinery margins and tanker market dynamics.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth 2025 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth 2026 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth 2025 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth 2026 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude 2025 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude 2026 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015–2019 average OECD commercial oil inventories at 2,740 mb
Crude Production by DoC Countries (April) 40.92 mb/d Decreased by 106 tb/d m-o-m

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC remains committed to ensuring market stability through its production agreements, while also adapting to changing demand dynamics and external economic factors. The organization is focused on balancing supply and demand to support oil prices and maintain a healthy market environment.

Direct Quotes

"The recent price movements reflect the ongoing adjustments in the global oil market, and we remain optimistic about demand growth in the coming years."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-07-08

Managed Money

145,697
Change: -28,936
7.3% of OI

Producer/Merchant

272,897
Change: +14,698
13.7% of OI

Swap Dealers

-509,517
Change: +12,577
-25.6% of OI

Open Interest

1,991,225
Change: 1,785

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-07-08

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,991,225 contracts (+1,785)

Managed Money Net Position: 145,697 contracts (7.3% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -28,936 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 272,897 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -509,517 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.6
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 51
Last Updated: 2025-07-13 23:47:40

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.6

Top News Topics

Supply (3 articles)

Demand (6 articles)

Geopolitical (4 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

97.95
Daily: 0.1 (0.11%)
Weekly: 0.44 (0.45%)

US_10Y

4.42
Daily: 0.08 (1.77%)
Weekly: 0.03 (0.64%)

SP500

6259.75
Daily: -20.71 (-0.33%)
Weekly: 29.77 (0.48%)

VIX

16.4
Daily: 0.62 (3.93%)
Weekly: -1.39 (-7.81%)

GOLD

3364.0
Daily: 8.0 (0.24%)
Weekly: 57.0 (1.72%)

COPPER

5.6
Daily: 0.04 (0.76%)
Weekly: -0.04 (-0.72%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $68.45
Closest Support: $66.85 2.34% below current price
Closest Resistance: $69.58 1.65% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $55.3
0.236 $60.75
0.382 $64.12
0.5 $66.85 Support
0.618 $69.58 Resistance
0.786 $73.46
1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $84.68
1.618 $92.68
2.0 $101.5
2.618 $115.78

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $68.45
Forecast Generated: 2025-07-13 23:47:42
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.08%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-07-12 $68.39 $64.32 $72.47
2025-07-13 $68.38 $64.31 $72.45
2025-07-14 $68.38 $64.31 $72.45
2025-07-15 $68.45 $64.37 $72.52
2025-07-16 $68.36 $64.28 $72.43

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.08% for the next trading day (2025-07-12), reaching $68.39.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-07-12 and 2025-07-16.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~11.9% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent bearish sentiment in the market, with a sentiment score of -0.600, indicates potential caution for traders. The Brent crude is currently at $70.36 and WTI at $68.45, with a Brent-WTI spread of $1.91. Traders should note the support levels around these prices and the resistance levels that may develop as market sentiment shifts. Additionally, the narrowing of the Brent-WTI spread suggests a convergence in supply dynamics, which may present short-term trading opportunities or risks as the market adjusts.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

Producers should consider the implications of inventory levels which are currently below the 2015-2019 average, indicating a tighter supply situation. The $62.96 average for WTI and $68.98 for the OPEC Reference Basket suggests a bearish outlook for prices, necessitating careful production planning and hedging strategies. The hedging strategies should be revisited in light of the current market sentiment and potential geopolitical risks that could affect supply reliability.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations as WTI and Brent prices remain volatile. The current market conditions, with a bearish sentiment and declining refinery margins, indicate possible supply reliability risks stemming from geopolitical tensions and fluctuating inventory levels. Procurement strategies should be adjusted to account for these variables, considering both short-term and long-term supply contracts to mitigate risks.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a bearish sentiment amidst mixed signals from supply and demand fundamentals. The global oil demand is projected to grow steadily, yet supply from non-OPEC countries is also increasing, creating a complex market environment. The key driving factors include geopolitical risks, inventory levels, and recent tariff developments affecting trade dynamics. Analysts should closely monitor these elements as they could indicate shifts in market outlook and potential price movements.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult with a financial advisor for specific investment decisions.

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-07-13 23:48

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