Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-07-10 23:47

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Neutral
Score: 0/5
Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $70.19 $0.04
WTI: $68.38 $0.05
Spread: $1.81 (Brent premium of $1.81)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 174,633
Weekly Change: 13,146

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 0 (Neutral)
Current Price: $66.87
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $67.0

MA(20): $68.46

Current Price is 66.87, 9 day MA 67.0, 20 day MA 68.46

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: 0.5409

Signal: 0.7311

Days since crossover: 12

MACD crossed the line 12 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 50.4

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 50.4 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 8,295

Avg (20d): 287,531

Ratio: 0.03

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 19.93

%D: 26.81

Stochastic %K: 19.93, %D: 26.81. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 19.16

+DI: 21.82

-DI: 17.97

ADX: 19.16 (+DI: 21.82, -DI: 17.97). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERSOLD

Value: -80.07

Williams %R: -80.07 (oversold)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 75.35

Middle: 68.46

Lower: 61.58

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 75.35, Middle: 68.46, Lower: 61.58

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13385.0 13433.0 13200.0 12533.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 6013.0 6919.0 6547.0 6438.33
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2757.0 2305.0 4401.0 3055.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 17006.0 17105.0 16792.0 16802.67
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3256.0 4614.0 2146.0 3382.67
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 426021.0 418951.0 448539.0 443426.0
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1649494.0 1642845.0 1655662.0 1658750.0
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 229468.0 232126.0 231672.0 224685.0
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 102797.0 103622.0 119728.0 118865.33

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (SEP 25) settled at $70.19, change $+0.04. WTI crude (AUG 25) settled at $68.38, change $+0.05. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $1.81 (Brent premium of $1.81). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$70.19
0.04
(SEP 25)

WTI Crude

$68.38
0.05
(AUG 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$1.81
Brent premium of $1.81

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious yet optimistic sentiment regarding the oil market, reflecting adjustments in demand and supply forecasts amidst ongoing economic developments.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Steady global economic growth despite trade tensions.
  • Stable growth in world oil demand projected for 2025 and 2026.
  • Revised forecasts for non-OPEC liquids supply growth.
  • Fluctuations in refining margins and tanker freight rates.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015-2019 average As of March
Crude Oil Production (April) 40.92 mb/d Decrease of 106 tb/d m-o-m

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC remains focused on maintaining market stability through careful monitoring of supply and demand dynamics. The organization emphasizes the importance of cooperation among member countries to adapt to changing market conditions and ensure a balanced approach to production adjustments.

Direct Quotes

"The demand for DoC crude is showing signs of resilience, indicating a positive outlook for the coming years."
"We must remain vigilant and responsive to the evolving economic landscape to safeguard market stability."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-07-01

Managed Money

174,633
Change: +13,146
8.8% of OI

Producer/Merchant

258,199
Change: +81
13.0% of OI

Swap Dealers

-522,094
Change: +6,566
-26.2% of OI

Open Interest

1,989,440
Change: 27,442

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-07-01

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,989,440 contracts (+27,442)

Managed Money Net Position: 174,633 contracts (8.8% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +13,146 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 258,199 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -522,094 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.4
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 97
Last Updated: 2025-07-10 23:47:33

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.4

Top News Topics

Supply (18 articles)

Demand (10 articles)

Geopolitical (4 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

97.77
Daily: 0.3 (0.31%)
Weekly: 0.59 (0.61%)

US_10Y

4.35
Daily: 0.0 (0.09%)
Weekly: -0.0 (-0.05%)

SP500

6280.46
Daily: 17.2 (0.27%)
Weekly: 1.11 (0.02%)

VIX

15.78
Daily: -0.16 (-1.0%)
Weekly: -0.6 (-3.66%)

GOLD

3343.9
Daily: 32.3 (0.98%)
Weekly: 11.4 (0.34%)

COPPER

5.59
Daily: 0.15 (2.67%)
Weekly: 0.57 (11.37%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $66.87
Closest Support: $66.85 0.03% below current price
Closest Resistance: $69.58 4.05% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $55.3
0.236 $60.75
0.382 $64.12
0.5 $66.85 Support
0.618 $69.58 Resistance
0.786 $73.46
1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $84.68
1.618 $92.68
2.0 $101.5
2.618 $115.78

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $66.57
Forecast Generated: 2025-07-10 23:47:36
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.02%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-07-11 $66.56 $62.49 $70.62
2025-07-12 $66.49 $62.42 $70.56
2025-07-13 $66.49 $62.42 $70.55
2025-07-14 $66.51 $62.45 $70.58
2025-07-15 $66.6 $62.54 $70.67

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.02% for the next trading day (2025-07-11), reaching $66.56.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-07-11 and 2025-07-15.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~12.2% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent decline in crude oil prices, with the $68.98 average for the OPEC Reference Basket, indicates a bearish market sentiment. The narrowing of the $3.50 spread between ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI suggests potential support levels near these prices, but traders should remain cautious of volatility. The short-term opportunities may arise from the strengthening backwardation in the forward curves, reflecting optimism for immediate price recovery. However, the risks associated with geopolitical tensions and demand concerns should be closely monitored.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

With crude oil production from OPEC countries decreasing by 106 tb/d in April, producers should consider adjusting their production planning and hedging strategies accordingly. The inventory levels show a slight increase in OECD commercial oil stocks, which may impact market prices negatively in the short term. Maintaining flexibility in operations will be crucial as market sentiment remains bearish due to demand uncertainties.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations as WTI and Brent prices remain volatile. The recent 5.8 mb/d decline in US crude imports may affect supply reliability, particularly given the geopolitical risks highlighted in the news. It is advisable for consumers to consider hedging strategies to mitigate price exposure, especially as inventory levels fluctuate.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market presents a complex picture, with bearish sentiment prevailing due to declining prices and concerns over demand. Key driving factors include fundamental supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical tensions, and recent CFTC positioning data indicating a bullish sentiment from managed money traders. Analysts should closely monitor these trends, as shifts in market sentiment could indicate potential outlook changes in the near future.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-07-10 23:47

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