Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-07-09 23:47

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Neutral
Score: -1/5
Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $70.15 $0.57
WTI: $68.33 $0.4
Spread: $1.82 (Brent premium of $1.82)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 174,633
Weekly Change: 13,146

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -1 (Neutral)
Current Price: $68.3
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $66.84

MA(20): $68.52

Current Price is 68.3, 9 day MA 66.84, 20 day MA 68.52

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: 0.6257

Signal: 0.7774

Days since crossover: 11

MACD crossed the line 11 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 55.33

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 55.33 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 6,600

Avg (20d): 295,172

Ratio: 0.02

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 29.86

%D: 29.07

Stochastic %K: 29.86, %D: 29.07. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 19.88

+DI: 23.43

-DI: 16.15

ADX: 19.88 (+DI: 23.43, -DI: 16.15). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -70.14

Williams %R: -70.14 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 75.37

Middle: 68.52

Lower: 61.67

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 75.37, Middle: 68.52, Lower: 61.67

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13385.0 13433.0 13200.0 12533.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 6013.0 6919.0 6547.0 6438.33
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2757.0 2305.0 4401.0 3055.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 17006.0 17105.0 16792.0 16802.67
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3256.0 4614.0 2146.0 3382.67
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 426021.0 418951.0 448539.0 443426.0
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1649494.0 1642845.0 1655662.0 1658750.0
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 229468.0 232126.0 231672.0 224685.0
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 102797.0 103622.0 119728.0 118865.33

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (SEP 25) settled at $70.15, change $+0.57. WTI crude (AUG 25) settled at $68.33, change $+0.4. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $1.82 (Brent premium of $1.82). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$70.15
0.57
(SEP 25)

WTI Crude

$68.33
0.4
(AUG 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$1.82
Brent premium of $1.82

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC's sentiment appears cautious, reflecting concerns over fluctuating oil prices and the need for market stability amidst varying economic growth forecasts.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Steady global economic growth despite recent challenges.
  • Stable growth in world oil demand, particularly in non-OECD regions.
  • Revised forecasts for non-OPEC liquids supply growth.
  • Fluctuations in refinery margins and tanker market dynamics.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015–2019 average As of March
Compliance Levels with Production Agreements N/A Not Mentioned

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC maintains a focus on market stability and is closely monitoring global economic indicators and oil demand trends. The organization is prepared to adjust production levels as necessary to respond to market conditions and ensure a balanced supply-demand dynamic.

Direct Quotes

"The demand for DoC crude is revised upward, reflecting our commitment to maintaining market stability."
"Despite the challenges, the global economy shows resilience, which is crucial for oil demand growth."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-07-01

Managed Money

174,633
Change: +13,146
8.8% of OI

Producer/Merchant

258,199
Change: +81
13.0% of OI

Swap Dealers

-522,094
Change: +6,566
-26.2% of OI

Open Interest

1,989,440
Change: 27,442

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-07-01

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,989,440 contracts (+27,442)

Managed Money Net Position: 174,633 contracts (8.8% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +13,146 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 258,199 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -522,094 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.4
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 83
Last Updated: 2025-07-09 23:47:28

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.4

Top News Topics

Supply (19 articles)

Demand (8 articles)

Geopolitical (3 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

97.4
Daily: -0.11 (-0.12%)
Weekly: 0.62 (0.64%)

US_10Y

4.34
Daily: -0.07 (-1.65%)
Weekly: 0.05 (1.14%)

SP500

6263.26
Daily: 37.74 (0.61%)
Weekly: 35.84 (0.58%)

VIX

15.94
Daily: -0.87 (-5.18%)
Weekly: -0.7 (-4.21%)

GOLD

3326.1
Daily: 19.1 (0.58%)
Weekly: -5.5 (-0.17%)

COPPER

5.62
Daily: -0.03 (-0.45%)
Weekly: 0.52 (10.25%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $68.3
Closest Support: $66.85 2.12% below current price
Closest Resistance: $69.58 1.87% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $55.3
0.236 $60.75
0.382 $64.12
0.5 $66.85 Support
0.618 $69.58 Resistance
0.786 $73.46
1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $84.68
1.618 $92.68
2.0 $101.5
2.618 $115.78

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $68.38
Forecast Generated: 2025-07-09 23:47:32
Next Trading Day: UP 0.03%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-07-10 $68.4 $64.4 $72.4
2025-07-11 $68.4 $64.4 $72.39
2025-07-12 $68.33 $64.33 $72.32
2025-07-13 $68.31 $64.31 $72.3
2025-07-14 $68.3 $64.31 $72.3

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.03% for the next trading day (2025-07-10), reaching $68.40.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-07-10 and 2025-07-14.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~11.7% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent decline in $5.02 in the OPEC Reference Basket indicates a bearish sentiment in the market. The narrowing of the $3.50 Brent-WTI spread suggests a potential convergence in price dynamics, reflecting the interplay of global supply and demand.

Traders should monitor the support levels around $62.96 for WTI and $66.46 for Brent. The strengthening backwardation in the futures curve indicates short-term optimism, which could present short-term trading opportunities if momentum builds.

Volatility is likely to remain elevated, with geopolitical tensions and economic forecasts influencing price movements. Keeping an eye on managed money positioning, which is currently bullish and strengthening, may provide insights into potential price direction shifts.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The decrease in global oil demand growth forecast may necessitate a reevaluation of production planning and hedging strategies. With OPEC's crude production declining by 106 tb/d, producers should consider adjusting output to align with the balance of supply and demand.

The increase in OECD commercial crude stocks by 21.4 mb indicates a potential oversupply, which could pressure prices further. Monitoring inventory levels closely will be essential to mitigate risks associated with inventory fluctuations and to optimize market positioning.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations, with WTI currently at $62.96 and Brent at $66.46. The risk factors associated with geopolitical tensions may affect supply reliability, necessitating a proactive approach in procurement strategies.

The decline in US product imports by 19% y-o-y could lead to tighter supply conditions. Thus, it may be prudent to explore hedging options to safeguard against price volatility and ensure stable supply chains.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently influenced by several bearish factors, including declining prices, increased inventories, and mixed global demand forecasts. The balance of supply and demand is shifting, with OPEC's production cuts and rising non-DoC supply creating a complex landscape.

Analysts should closely monitor the ML price predictions and positioning data, which indicate a bullish sentiment among managed money traders. This could signal potential market reversals, particularly as geopolitical concerns persist and economic growth forecasts remain uncertain.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-07-09 23:47

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