Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-07-08 23:48

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Neutral
Score: -1/5
Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $69.58 $0.78
WTI: $67.93 $0.93
Spread: $1.65 (Brent premium of $1.65)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 174,633
Weekly Change: 13,146

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -1 (Neutral)
Current Price: $68.21
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $66.49

MA(20): $68.35

Current Price is 68.21, 9 day MA 66.49, 20 day MA 68.35

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: 0.5761

Signal: 0.8134

Days since crossover: 10

MACD crossed the line 10 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 55.12

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 55.12 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 6,736

Avg (20d): 298,136

Ratio: 0.02

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 29.24

%D: 24.63

Stochastic %K: 29.24, %D: 24.63. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 19.75

+DI: 22.79

-DI: 16.82

ADX: 19.75 (+DI: 22.79, -DI: 16.82). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -70.76

Williams %R: -70.76 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 75.38

Middle: 68.35

Lower: 61.33

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 75.38, Middle: 68.35, Lower: 61.33

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13433.0 13435.0 13200.0 12566.67
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 6919.0 5944.0 6611.0 6808.0
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2305.0 4270.0 3910.0 3638.0
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 17105.0 16987.0 16532.0 16420.0
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 4614.0 1674.0 2701.0 3170.0
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 418951.0 415106.0 460696.0 441507.0
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1642845.0 1633245.0 1668222.0 1647259.0
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 232126.0 227938.0 233886.0 223413.33
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 103622.0 105332.0 121263.0 114743.0

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (SEP 25) settled at $69.58, change $+0.78. WTI crude (AUG 25) settled at $67.93, change $+0.93. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $1.65 (Brent premium of $1.65). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$69.58
0.78
(SEP 25)

WTI Crude

$67.93
0.93
(AUG 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$1.65
Brent premium of $1.65

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious sentiment regarding the oil market, acknowledging ongoing challenges while highlighting some positive trends in demand and supply dynamics.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Steady global economic growth despite recent challenges.
  • Stable growth in world oil demand projected for 2025 and 2026.
  • Revisions in non-OPEC liquids supply growth forecasts.
  • Fluctuations in refining margins and tanker market dynamics.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation from 5-year average 173 mb below As of March
Compliance Levels with Production Agreements N/A Not Mentioned

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC remains focused on maintaining market stability through careful monitoring of supply and demand dynamics. The organization is prepared to make necessary adjustments to production levels to ensure that the market remains balanced and that prices stabilize in response to ongoing fluctuations.

Direct Quotes

"The global economy continues to demonstrate a steady growth trend despite recent tariff-related developments."
"Demand for DoC crude is revised upward, reflecting a more optimistic outlook for the coming years."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-07-01

Managed Money

174,633
Change: +13,146
8.8% of OI

Producer/Merchant

258,199
Change: +81
13.0% of OI

Swap Dealers

-522,094
Change: +6,566
-26.2% of OI

Open Interest

1,989,440
Change: 27,442

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-07-01

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,989,440 contracts (+27,442)

Managed Money Net Position: 174,633 contracts (8.8% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +13,146 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 258,199 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -522,094 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.4
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 59
Last Updated: 2025-07-08 23:47:43

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.4

Top News Topics

Supply (13 articles)

Demand (4 articles)

Geopolitical (2 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

97.7
Daily: 0.22 (0.23%)
Weekly: 0.88 (0.91%)

US_10Y

4.41
Daily: 0.02 (0.46%)
Weekly: 0.16 (3.86%)

SP500

6225.52
Daily: -4.46 (-0.07%)
Weekly: 27.51 (0.44%)

VIX

16.81
Daily: -0.98 (-5.51%)
Weekly: -0.02 (-0.12%)

GOLD

3298.3
Daily: -33.9 (-1.02%)
Weekly: -49.7 (-1.48%)

COPPER

5.69
Daily: 0.7 (14.1%)
Weekly: 0.54 (10.46%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $68.21
Closest Support: $66.85 1.99% below current price
Closest Resistance: $69.58 2.01% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $55.3
0.236 $60.75
0.382 $64.12
0.5 $66.85 Support
0.618 $69.58 Resistance
0.786 $73.46
1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $84.68
1.618 $92.68
2.0 $101.5
2.618 $115.78

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $68.33
Forecast Generated: 2025-07-08 23:47:45
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.14%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-07-09 $68.24 $64.22 $72.26
2025-07-10 $68.26 $64.24 $72.28
2025-07-11 $68.26 $64.24 $72.28
2025-07-12 $68.18 $64.17 $72.2
2025-07-13 $68.17 $64.15 $72.19

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.14% for the next trading day (2025-07-09), reaching $68.24.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-07-09 and 2025-07-13.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~11.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent bearish sentiment in the market, reflected by a sentiment score of -0.400, indicates a cautious trading environment. The $69.58 for Brent and $67.93 for WTI suggest potential support levels around these prices, while the $1.65 Brent-WTI spread could provide insights into market dynamics. The narrowing of the spread may indicate a short-term opportunity for traders, as it reflects optimism in the short-term outlook.

Traders should monitor volatility closely, especially given recent geopolitical tensions and inventory fluctuations. The managed money positioning shows a strengthening trend, with a net position of 174,633 contracts, suggesting potential upward pressure on prices.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The balance of supply and demand indicates a slight upward revision in demand for DoC crude to 42.6 mb/d for 2025, which may influence production planning. Producers should consider adjusting their hedging strategies accordingly, especially with the $62.96 average WTI price.

The increase in crude inventories by 21.4 mb could signal a need for producers to reassess their output levels to avoid oversupply, especially given the bearish market sentiment affecting overall operations. Continuous monitoring of inventory levels will be crucial for maintaining profitability.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should be prepared for potential fluctuations in input costs as WTI and Brent prices remain volatile. With Brent at $69.58 and WTI at $67.93, procurement strategies may need to be adjusted to mitigate supply reliability risks stemming from geopolitical tensions and fluctuating inventories.

The recent decline in US crude imports and the slight increase in exports may impact product availability, suggesting that consumers should consider hedging against price increases and ensuring supply security, particularly in light of the bearish sentiment currently dominating the market.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently influenced by a mix of bearish sentiment, as indicated by a sentiment score of -0.400, and fundamental shifts in supply and demand. The anticipated growth in global oil demand by 1.3 mb/d for both 2025 and 2026 is countered by an expected increase in non-DoC liquids supply, which may create a balance challenge.

Analysts should focus on the implications of managed money positioning, which shows a strengthening trend, alongside geopolitical risks that could affect price direction. The convergence of these factors suggests a complex market environment that could shift rapidly, necessitating ongoing analysis and adaptation of market outlooks.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-07-08 23:48

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