Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Neutral

Score: 1/5

Short: BUY | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $77.01 $0.31

WTI: $74.93 $0.21

Spread: $2.08 (Brent premium of $2.08)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)

Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 170,605

Weekly Change: 9,028

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 1 (Neutral)

Current Price: $66.59

Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $70.82

MA(20): $66.27

Current Price is 66.59, 9 day MA 70.82, 20 day MA 66.27

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: 2.6982

Signal: 2.1193

Days since crossover: 30

MACD crossed the line 30 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 49.76

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 49.76 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 100,835

Avg (20d): 317,881

Ratio: 0.32

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 28.61

%D: 66.16

Stochastic %K: 28.61, %D: 66.16. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

STRONG UPTREND

ADX: 33.44

+DI: 25.25

-DI: 23.11

ADX: 33.44 (+DI: 25.25, -DI: 23.11). Trend: strong uptrend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -71.39

Williams %R: -71.39 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 76.14

Middle: 66.27

Lower: 56.41

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 76.14, Middle: 66.27, Lower: 56.41

Fundamental Analysis

Category	Current (BCFD)	Last Week	Last Year	3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day)	13431.0	13428.0	13200.0	12466.67
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	5504.0	6176.0	8304.0	6480.33
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	4361.0	3286.0	3188.0	4177.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day)	16862.0	17226.0	17047.0	16499.33
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	1143.0	2890.0	5116.0	2302.67
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	420942.0	432415.0	459652.0	446242.0
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	1637180.0	1643559.0	1658627.0	1652345.33
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	230013.0	229804.0	233512.0	223865.67
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	109398.0	108884.0	123366.0	115256.67

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (AUG 25) settled at $77.01, change $+0.31. WTI crude (JUL 25) settled at $74.93, change $-0.21. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $2.08 (Brent premium of $2.08). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$77.01

0.31

(AUG 25)

WTI Crude

$74.93

0.21

(JUL 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$2.08

Brent premium of $2.08

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious optimism regarding the oil market, reflecting a steady growth in global demand despite some downward revisions in economic forecasts.

Key Themes

Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
Steady growth in global oil demand, particularly in non-OECD countries.
Revisions in economic growth forecasts for major economies.
Fluctuations in refinery margins and product market dynamics.
Changes in crude and refined products trade patterns.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric	Value/Forecast	Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025)	1.3 mb/d	Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026)	1.3 mb/d	Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025)	0.8 mb/d	Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026)	0.8 mb/d	Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025)	42.6 mb/d	Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026)	42.9 mb/d	Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation	173 mb below 2015–2019 average	As of March
Compliance Levels with Production Agreements	N/A	Not Mentioned

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC remains focused on maintaining market stability and is prepared to adjust production levels as necessary to respond to changes in demand and supply dynamics. The organization emphasizes the importance of cooperation among member countries to navigate the evolving market landscape.

Direct Quotes

"The global economy continues to demonstrate a steady growth trend despite recent tariff-related developments."

"Demand for DoC crude is revised upward, reflecting a positive outlook for the coming years."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening

Positioning: Normal Range

Report Date: 2025-06-17

Managed Money

170,605

Change: +9,028

8.8% of OI

Producer/Merchant

257,783

Change: +12,308

13.3% of OI

Swap Dealers

-516,834

Change: -70,688

-26.7% of OI

Open Interest

1,938,664

Change: -78,548

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-06-17

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,938,664 contracts (-78,548)

Managed Money Net Position: 170,605 contracts (8.8% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +9,028 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 257,783 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -516,834 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH

Average Polarity: -0.6

Confidence: 1.0

Articles Analyzed: 72

Last Updated: 2025-06-23 23:47:46

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.6

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive

Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices

Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals

Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand

Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.14

Daily: -0.57 (-0.58%)

Weekly: 0.14 (0.14%)

US_10Y

4.32

Daily: -0.05 (-1.26%)

Weekly: -0.13 (-2.96%)

SP500

6025.17

Daily: 57.33 (0.96%)

Weekly: -7.94 (-0.13%)

VIX

19.83

Daily: -0.79 (-3.83%)

Weekly: 0.72 (3.77%)

GOLD

3370.6

Daily: 2.5 (0.07%)

Weekly: -25.8 (-0.76%)

COPPER

4.89

Daily: 0.06 (1.24%)

Weekly: 0.06 (1.23%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $66.59

Closest Support: $66.37 0.33% below current price

Closest Resistance: $69.03 3.66% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $55.12

0.236 $60.43

0.382 $63.72

0.5 $66.37 Support

0.618 $69.03 Resistance

0.786 $72.81

1.0 $77.62

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $83.74

1.618 $91.53

2.0 $100.12

2.618 $114.03

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $68.51

Forecast Generated: 2025-06-23 23:47:49

Next Trading Day: UP 0.02%

Date	Prediction	Lower Bound	Upper Bound
2025-06-24	$68.52	$64.83	$72.22
2025-06-25	$68.49	$64.8	$72.19
2025-06-26	$68.54	$64.85	$72.24
2025-06-27	$68.65	$64.95	$72.34
2025-06-28	$68.85	$65.15	$72.55

ML Insights

Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
The model predicts a price increase of ~0.02% for the next trading day (2025-06-24), reaching $68.52.
The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-06-24 and 2025-06-28.
The average confidence interval width is ~10.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.