Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-06-19 23:48

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Neutral
Score: 1/5
Short: BUY | Medium: BUY | Long: BUY

International Prices

Brent: $76.7 $0.25
WTI: $75.14 $0.3
Spread: $1.56 (Brent premium of $1.56)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BULLISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 161,577
Weekly Change: 16,946

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 1 (Neutral)
Current Price: $75.67
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $70.76

MA(20): $66.04

Current Price is 75.67, 9 day MA 70.76, 20 day MA 66.04

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: 3.2706

Signal: 1.9864

Days since crossover: 29

MACD crossed the line 29 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

OVERBOUGHT

Value: 77.56

Category: OVERBOUGHT

RSI is 77.56 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 3,851

Avg (20d): 299,753

Ratio: 0.01

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

OVERBOUGHT

%K: 88.22

%D: 86.27

Stochastic %K: 88.22, %D: 86.27. Signal: overbought

ADX (14)

STRONG UPTREND

ADX: 35.67

+DI: 31.83

-DI: 5.01

ADX: 35.67 (+DI: 31.83, -DI: 5.01). Trend: strong uptrend

Williams %R (14)

OVERBOUGHT

Value: -11.78

Williams %R: -11.78 (overbought)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 76.28

Middle: 66.04

Lower: 55.8

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 76.28, Middle: 66.04, Lower: 55.8

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13431.0 13428.0 13200.0 12466.67
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 5504.0 6176.0 8304.0 6480.33
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 4361.0 3286.0 3188.0 4177.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 16862.0 17226.0 17047.0 16499.33
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 1143.0 2890.0 5116.0 2302.67
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 420942.0 432415.0 459652.0 446242.0
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1637180.0 1643559.0 1658627.0 1652345.33
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 230013.0 229804.0 233512.0 223865.67
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 109398.0 108884.0 123366.0 115256.67

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (AUG 25) settled at $76.7, change $+0.25. WTI crude (JUL 25) settled at $75.14, change $+0.3. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $1.56 (Brent premium of $1.56). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$76.7
0.25
(AUG 25)

WTI Crude

$75.14
0.3
(JUL 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$1.56
Brent premium of $1.56

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious yet optimistic sentiment regarding the oil market, acknowledging recent price declines while highlighting a steady global economic growth trend and anticipated demand increases.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Steady global economic growth despite tariff-related challenges.
  • Stable growth forecast for world oil demand in 2025 and 2026.
  • Adjustments in non-OPEC liquids supply growth forecasts.
  • Fluctuations in refinery margins and tanker freight rates.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) +1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) +1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) +0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) +0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015–2019 average As of March
Crude Production (April) 40.92 mb/d Decrease of 106 tb/d m-o-m

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC maintains a focus on market stability and is closely monitoring supply and demand dynamics. The organization is prepared to adjust production levels as necessary to support prices and ensure a balanced market, especially in light of the anticipated increases in global oil demand and ongoing geopolitical challenges.

Direct Quotes

"The global economy continues to demonstrate a steady growth trend despite recent tariff-related developments."
"Demand for DoC crude is revised upward, reflecting a positive outlook for the coming years."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-06-10

Managed Money

161,577
Change: +16,946
8.0% of OI

Producer/Merchant

245,475
Change: -11,810
12.2% of OI

Swap Dealers

-446,146
Change: -14,397
-22.1% of OI

Open Interest

2,017,212
Change: 6,899

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-06-10

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 2,017,212 contracts (+6,899)

Managed Money Net Position: 161,577 contracts (8.0% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +16,946 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 245,475 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -446,146 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BULLISH
Average Polarity: 0.6
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 112
Last Updated: 2025-06-19 23:47:36

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

0.6

Top News Topics

Demand (1 articles)

Geopolitical (44 articles)

Weather (1 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Moderate market volatility

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.6
Daily: -0.31 (-0.32%)
Weekly: 0.42 (0.42%)

US_10Y

4.4
Daily: 0.0 (0.09%)
Weekly: 0.04 (0.92%)

SP500

5980.87
Daily: -1.85 (-0.03%)
Weekly: -64.39 (-1.07%)

VIX

22.17
Daily: 2.03 (10.08%)
Weekly: 1.35 (6.48%)

GOLD

3367.9
Daily: -21.9 (-0.65%)
Weekly: -63.3 (-1.84%)

COPPER

4.78
Daily: -0.07 (-1.4%)
Weekly: -0.03 (-0.54%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $75.67
Closest Support: $72.81 3.78% below current price
Closest Resistance: $77.62 2.58% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $55.12
0.236 $60.43
0.382 $63.72
0.5 $66.37
0.618 $69.03
0.786 $72.81 Support
1.0 $77.62 Resistance

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $83.74
1.618 $91.53
2.0 $100.12
2.618 $114.03

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $75.14
Forecast Generated: 2025-06-19 23:47:38
Next Trading Day: UP 0.03%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-06-19 $75.16 $72.39 $77.93
2025-06-20 $74.95 $72.18 $77.73
2025-06-21 $75.0 $72.23 $77.77
2025-06-22 $74.88 $72.11 $77.66
2025-06-23 $74.88 $72.11 $77.65

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.03% for the next trading day (2025-06-19), reaching $75.16.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-06-19 and 2025-06-23.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~7.4% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-06-19 23:48

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