Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-06-17 23:48

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Neutral
Score: 1/5
Short: BUY | Medium: BUY | Long: BUY

International Prices

Brent: $73.23 $1.0
WTI: $71.77 $1.21
Spread: $1.46 (Brent premium of $1.46)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BULLISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 161,577
Weekly Change: 16,946

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 1 (Neutral)
Current Price: $75.23
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $68.27

MA(20): $64.72

Current Price is 75.23, 9 day MA 68.27, 20 day MA 64.72

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: 2.6304

Signal: 1.3452

Days since crossover: 27

MACD crossed the line 27 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

OVERBOUGHT

Value: 76.93

Category: OVERBOUGHT

RSI is 76.93 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 3,433

Avg (20d): 311,962

Ratio: 0.01

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 86.63

%D: 75.99

Stochastic %K: 86.63, %D: 75.99. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

STRONG UPTREND

ADX: 29.96

+DI: 32.05

-DI: 5.88

ADX: 29.96 (+DI: 32.05, -DI: 5.88). Trend: strong uptrend

Williams %R (14)

OVERBOUGHT

Value: -13.37

Williams %R: -13.37 (overbought)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BREAKOUT UPPER

Upper: 73.13

Middle: 64.72

Lower: 56.32

Price vs BBands (20, 2): breakout upper. Upper: 73.13, Middle: 64.72, Lower: 56.32

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13428.0 13408.0 13100.0 12533.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 6176.0 6346.0 7058.0 7223.33
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3286.0 3907.0 4501.0 3394.33
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 17226.0 16998.0 17144.0 16651.0
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2890.0 2439.0 2557.0 3829.0
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 432415.0 436059.0 455922.0 448496.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1643559.0 1637159.0 1646827.0 1653449.0
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 229804.0 228300.0 230946.0 223969.67
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 108884.0 107638.0 122485.0 115643.0

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (AUG 25) settled at $73.23, change $-1.0. WTI crude (JUL 25) settled at $71.77, change $-1.21. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $1.46 (Brent premium of $1.46). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$73.23
1.0
(AUG 25)

WTI Crude

$71.77
1.21
(JUL 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$1.46
Brent premium of $1.46

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC's sentiment appears cautious as it navigates through fluctuating oil prices and mixed economic forecasts, while maintaining a focus on market stability.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Steady global economic growth with minor revisions in forecasts.
  • Stable growth in world oil demand, particularly in non-OECD regions.
  • Adjustments in non-OPEC liquids supply growth forecasts.
  • Mixed performance in product markets and refining operations.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015–2019 average OECD commercial oil inventories stood at 2,740 mb
Compliance Levels N/A Not Mentioned

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC remains committed to ensuring market stability amidst fluctuating prices and varying economic conditions. The organization is closely monitoring global demand and supply dynamics, particularly from non-OECD countries, while adjusting its forecasts to reflect current trends.

Direct Quotes

"The front end of the ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI and GME Oman forward curves strengthened further in April, reflecting traders’ optimism about the market outlook in the short-term."
"Demand for DoC crude is revised upward, indicating a positive adjustment in our outlook for the coming years."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-06-10

Managed Money

161,577
Change: +16,946
8.0% of OI

Producer/Merchant

245,475
Change: -11,810
12.2% of OI

Swap Dealers

-446,146
Change: -14,397
-22.1% of OI

Open Interest

2,017,212
Change: 6,899

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-06-10

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 2,017,212 contracts (+6,899)

Managed Money Net Position: 161,577 contracts (8.0% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +16,946 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 245,475 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -446,146 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BULLISH
Average Polarity: 0.6
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 76
Last Updated: 2025-06-17 23:47:39

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

0.6

Top News Topics

Supply (1 articles)

Demand (1 articles)

Geopolitical (18 articles)

Weather (2 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Moderate market volatility

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.67
Daily: 0.67 (0.68%)
Weekly: 0.04 (0.04%)

US_10Y

4.39
Daily: -0.06 (-1.33%)
Weekly: -0.02 (-0.43%)

SP500

5982.72
Daily: -50.39 (-0.84%)
Weekly: -39.52 (-0.66%)

VIX

21.6
Daily: 2.49 (13.03%)
Weekly: 4.34 (25.14%)

GOLD

3406.5
Daily: 10.1 (0.3%)
Weekly: 85.2 (2.57%)

COPPER

4.82
Daily: -0.01 (-0.15%)
Weekly: 0.02 (0.39%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $75.23
Closest Support: $72.81 3.22% below current price
Closest Resistance: $77.62 3.18% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $55.12
0.236 $60.43
0.382 $63.72
0.5 $66.37
0.618 $69.03
0.786 $72.81 Support
1.0 $77.62 Resistance

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $83.74
1.618 $91.53
2.0 $100.12
2.618 $114.03

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $74.84
Forecast Generated: 2025-06-17 23:47:42
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.35%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-06-18 $74.58 $71.77 $77.39
2025-06-19 $74.62 $71.81 $77.43
2025-06-20 $74.39 $71.58 $77.2
2025-06-21 $74.45 $71.64 $77.26
2025-06-22 $74.33 $71.51 $77.14

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.35% for the next trading day (2025-06-18), reaching $74.58.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-06-18 and 2025-06-22.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~7.5% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-06-17 23:48

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