Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-06-12 23:47

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Neutral
Score: 0/5
Short: BUY | Medium: BUY | Long: BUY

International Prices

Brent: $69.77 $2.9
WTI: $68.15 $3.17
Spread: $1.62 (Brent premium of $1.62)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: 432,415 (0)
Net Imports: 2,890 (0)

News Sentiment

NEUTRAL

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 144,631
Weekly Change: 40,684

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 0 (Neutral)
Current Price: $74.31
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $65.5

MA(20): $63.38

Current Price is 74.31, 9 day MA 65.5, 20 day MA 63.38

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: 1.7103

Signal: 0.592

Days since crossover: 24

MACD crossed the line 24 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

OVERBOUGHT

Value: 78.78

Category: OVERBOUGHT

RSI is 78.78 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 201,203

Avg (20d): 272,509

Ratio: 0.74

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

OVERBOUGHT

%K: 81.49

%D: 86.35

Stochastic %K: 81.49, %D: 86.35. Signal: overbought

ADX (14)

WEAK TREND

ADX: 21.86

+DI: 45.67

-DI: 8.7

ADX: 21.86 (+DI: 45.67, -DI: 8.7). Trend: weak trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERBOUGHT

Value: -18.51

Williams %R: -18.51 (overbought)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BREAKOUT UPPER

Upper: 69.52

Middle: 63.38

Lower: 57.24

Price vs BBands (20, 2): breakout upper. Upper: 69.52, Middle: 63.38, Lower: 57.24

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production 13428.0 13408.0 13100.0 12533.33
Crude Imports 6176.0 6346.0 7058.0 7223.33
Crude Exports 3286.0 3907.0 4501.0 3394.33
Refinery Inputs 17226.0 16998.0 17144.0 16651.0
Net Imports 2890.0 2439.0 2557.0 3829.0
Commercial Crude Stocks 432415.0 436059.0 455922.0 448496.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks 1643559.0 1637159.0 1646827.0 1653449.0
Gasoline Stocks 229804.0 228300.0 230946.0 223969.67
Distillate Stocks 108884.0 107638.0 122485.0 115643.0

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (AUG 25) settled at $69.77, change $+2.90. WTI crude (JUL 25) settled at $68.15, change $+3.17. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $1.62 (Brent premium of $1.62). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$69.77
2.9
(AUG 25)

WTI Crude

$68.15
3.17
(JUL 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$1.62
Brent premium of $1.62

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC's sentiment appears cautious as it navigates fluctuating oil prices and mixed economic forecasts, while maintaining a focus on market stability.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Steady global economic growth with slight downward revisions for major economies.
  • Stable growth in world oil demand, particularly in non-OECD regions.
  • Forecasted growth in non-OPEC liquids supply, albeit revised down.
  • Changes in tanker market dynamics with mixed freight rate movements.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015–2019 average March data
Compliance Levels with Production Agreements N/A Not Mentioned

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC remains committed to ensuring market stability amidst fluctuating oil prices and evolving demand dynamics. The organization is closely monitoring global economic indicators and adjusting its production strategies to align with the anticipated demand for crude oil, particularly from non-OECD countries.

Direct Quotes

"The front end of the ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI and GME Oman forward curves strengthened further in April, reflecting traders’ optimism about the market outlook in the short-term."
"Demand for DoC crude is revised upward, indicating a positive adjustment in our market forecasts."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-06-03

Managed Money

144,631
Change: +40,684
7.2% of OI

Producer/Merchant

257,285
Change: -13,108
12.8% of OI

Swap Dealers

-431,749
Change: +7,751
-21.5% of OI

Open Interest

2,010,313
Change: 66,605

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-06-03

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 2,010,313 contracts (+66,605)

Managed Money Net Position: 144,631 contracts (7.2% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +40,684 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 257,285 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -431,749 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

NEUTRAL
Average Polarity: -0.007
Confidence: 1.32
Articles Analyzed: 114
Last Updated: 2025-06-12 23:47:27

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.01

Top News Topics

Supply

4 articles

Demand

6 articles

Geopolitical

10 articles

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.24
Daily: -0.39 (-0.39%)
Weekly: -0.95 (-0.96%)

US_10Y

4.36
Daily: -0.06 (-1.25%)
Weekly: -0.15 (-3.39%)

SP500

6045.26
Daily: 23.02 (0.38%)
Weekly: 44.9 (0.75%)

VIX

18.02
Daily: 0.76 (4.4%)
Weekly: 1.25 (7.45%)

GOLD

3450.0
Daily: 128.7 (3.87%)
Weekly: 127.3 (3.83%)

COPPER

4.79
Daily: -0.01 (-0.3%)
Weekly: -0.04 (-0.9%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $74.31
Closest Support: $72.81 2.02% below current price
Closest Resistance: $77.62 4.45% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $55.12
0.236 $60.43
0.382 $63.72
0.5 $66.37
0.618 $69.03
0.786 $72.81 Support
1.0 $77.62 Resistance

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $83.74
1.618 $91.53
2.0 $100.12
2.618 $114.03

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $68.04
Forecast Generated: 2025-06-12 23:47:28
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.21%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-06-13 $67.9 $65.71 $70.08
2025-06-14 $67.88 $65.69 $70.06
2025-06-15 $67.84 $65.66 $70.03
2025-06-16 $67.69 $65.5 $69.87
2025-06-17 $67.7 $65.51 $69.89

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.21% for the next trading day (2025-06-13), reaching $67.90.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-06-13 and 2025-06-17.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~6.4% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent decline in crude oil prices, with $5.02 drop in the OPEC Reference Basket and $4.98 in NYMEX WTI, suggests potential bearish momentum in the short term. However, the backwardation in forward curves indicates trader optimism, which may present short-term opportunities for strategic buying.

The $1.62 Brent-WTI spread reflects ongoing differences in supply/demand dynamics, offering insights into potential arbitrage opportunities. Traders should monitor key support levels around $62.96 for WTI and $66.46 for Brent, as these could be pivotal in determining price direction.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

With global oil demand expected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2025, producers must consider supply-demand balance in their production planning. The decline in crude and product inventories may prompt a reevaluation of hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating prices.

The recent drop in OPEC production and the overall sentiment reflected in the market outlook should guide operational strategies, ensuring readiness to adapt to market fluctuations and maintain profitability.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should brace for potential input cost fluctuations as crude oil prices remain volatile. The $68.98 average for the OPEC Reference Basket and the $66.46 for Brent indicate that procurement strategies may need to adapt to manage costs effectively.

Additionally, the geopolitical tensions and inventory levels should be closely monitored, as they pose risks to supply reliability. Implementing hedging strategies can be beneficial in mitigating the impact of sudden price spikes or drops.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The current Crude Oil market landscape is characterized by a bearish trend in price movements, as evidenced by the recent declines in both Brent and WTI prices. Despite this, the backwardation in forward curves suggests a potential shift towards a more optimistic outlook in the short term.

Key driving factors include supply adjustments from OPEC, inventory increases, and mixed sentiment from news analysis. Analysts should remain vigilant regarding these dynamics, as they could signal shifts in market sentiment and pricing strategies in the coming months.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-06-12 23:47

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