Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-06-11 23:47

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Neutral
Score: 0/5
Short: BUY | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $66.87 $0.17
WTI: $64.98 $0.31
Spread: $1.89 (Brent premium of $1.89)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: 432,415 (0)
Net Imports: 2,890 (0)

News Sentiment

NEUTRAL

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 144,631
Weekly Change: 40,684

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 0 (Neutral)
Current Price: $67.85
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $63.96

MA(20): $62.81

Current Price is 67.85, 9 day MA 63.96, 20 day MA 62.81

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: 0.9386

Signal: 0.3077

Days since crossover: 23

MACD crossed the line 23 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 68.35

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 68.35 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 35,217

Avg (20d): 256,567

Ratio: 0.14

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

OVERBOUGHT

%K: 84.92

%D: 87.53

Stochastic %K: 84.92, %D: 87.53. Signal: overbought

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 18.62

+DI: 30.32

-DI: 11.49

ADX: 18.62 (+DI: 30.32, -DI: 11.49). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERBOUGHT

Value: -15.08

Williams %R: -15.08 (overbought)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BREAKOUT UPPER

Upper: 66.27

Middle: 62.81

Lower: 59.35

Price vs BBands (20, 2): breakout upper. Upper: 66.27, Middle: 62.81, Lower: 59.35

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production 13428.0 13408.0 13100.0 12533.33
Crude Imports 6176.0 6346.0 7058.0 7223.33
Crude Exports 3286.0 3907.0 4501.0 3394.33
Refinery Inputs 17226.0 16998.0 17144.0 16651.0
Net Imports 2890.0 2439.0 2557.0 3829.0
Commercial Crude Stocks 432415.0 436059.0 455922.0 448496.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks 1643559.0 1637159.0 1646827.0 1653449.0
Gasoline Stocks 229804.0 228300.0 230946.0 223969.67
Distillate Stocks 108884.0 107638.0 122485.0 115643.0

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (AUG 25) settled at $66.87, change $-0.17. WTI crude (JUL 25) settled at $64.98, change $-0.31. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $1.89 (Brent premium of $1.89). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$66.87
0.17
(AUG 25)

WTI Crude

$64.98
0.31
(JUL 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$1.89
Brent premium of $1.89

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious yet optimistic sentiment regarding the oil market, reflecting on recent price declines and steady demand growth forecasts amidst global economic challenges.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Steady global economic growth forecasts despite minor revisions.
  • Stable world oil demand growth expectations for 2025 and 2026.
  • Revised non-OPEC liquids supply growth forecasts.
  • Fluctuations in refinery margins and product market dynamics.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015–2019 average As of March
Compliance Levels N/A Not Mentioned

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC maintains a focus on market stability, emphasizing the need for cooperation among member countries to manage production levels effectively. The organization is closely monitoring global economic indicators and oil demand trends to adapt its strategies accordingly.

Direct Quotes

"The market outlook remains cautiously optimistic, reflecting the resilience of global oil demand amidst economic uncertainties."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-06-03

Managed Money

144,631
Change: +40,684
7.2% of OI

Producer/Merchant

257,285
Change: -13,108
12.8% of OI

Swap Dealers

-431,749
Change: +7,751
-21.5% of OI

Open Interest

2,010,313
Change: 66,605

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-06-03

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 2,010,313 contracts (+66,605)

Managed Money Net Position: 144,631 contracts (7.2% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +40,684 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 257,285 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -431,749 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

NEUTRAL
Average Polarity: -0.051
Confidence: 1.32
Articles Analyzed: 60
Last Updated: 2025-06-11 23:47:25

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.05

Top News Topics

Supply

3 articles

Demand

3 articles

Geopolitical

2 articles

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.35
Daily: -0.7 (-0.71%)
Weekly: -0.39 (-0.39%)

US_10Y

4.41
Daily: -0.06 (-1.39%)
Weekly: 0.02 (0.41%)

SP500

6022.24
Daily: -16.57 (-0.27%)
Weekly: 82.94 (1.4%)

VIX

17.26
Daily: 0.31 (1.83%)
Weekly: -1.22 (-6.6%)

GOLD

3395.1
Daily: 74.2 (2.23%)
Weekly: 44.4 (1.33%)

COPPER

4.82
Daily: -0.06 (-1.22%)
Weekly: -0.09 (-1.81%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $67.85
Closest Support: $65.72 3.14% below current price
Closest Resistance: $68.61 1.12% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $55.12
0.236 $59.17
0.382 $61.68
0.5 $63.7
0.618 $65.72 Support
0.786 $68.61 Resistance
1.0 $72.28

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $76.95
1.618 $82.88
2.0 $89.44
2.618 $100.04

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $68.15
Forecast Generated: 2025-06-11 23:47:26
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.17%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-06-12 $68.04 $65.81 $70.27
2025-06-13 $67.89 $65.66 $70.12
2025-06-14 $67.86 $65.62 $70.09
2025-06-15 $67.83 $65.6 $70.06
2025-06-16 $67.66 $65.43 $69.9

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.17% for the next trading day (2025-06-12), reaching $68.04.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-06-12 and 2025-06-16.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~6.6% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

Current market dynamics indicate neutral sentiment, with a slight bearish trend reflected in the recent price movements. The $66.87 Brent and $64.98 WTI prices suggest potential support levels around these marks, while the $1.89 Brent-WTI spread highlights ongoing supply/demand dynamics that traders should monitor closely.

The risk factors include fluctuating inventory levels and geopolitical tensions that could impact volatility. The narrowing spread indicates a potential convergence in pricing, which could present short-term opportunities for traders looking to capitalize on price corrections or potential rebounds.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

With the balance of supply and demand showing a slight upward revision in DoC crude demand to 42.6 mb/d, producers should consider adjusting their production planning to align with this forecast. The bearish sentiment from inventory increases may prompt a reevaluation of hedging strategies to mitigate price risks.

Given the 21.4 mb month-over-month increase in crude stocks, maintaining operational flexibility will be crucial to navigate potential price fluctuations and market sentiment shifts.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations as WTI and Brent prices show neutral sentiment overall. The $66.87 Brent and $64.98 WTI prices may indicate stable procurement opportunities, but vigilance is necessary due to supply reliability risks related to geopolitical factors and inventory levels.

As global refinery margins exhibit mixed trends, consumers in refining and transportation should consider hedging strategies to protect against potential price volatility and ensure stable supply chains.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market presents a neutral outlook driven by a combination of fundamental balance factors, including steady global demand growth and mixed supply signals. The bearish sentiment from rising inventories contrasts with the bullish positioning of managed money speculators, suggesting potential shifts in market dynamics.

Key drivers include the OPEC+ production adjustments and the evolving geopolitical landscape. Analysts should monitor these factors closely to anticipate shifts in market sentiment and price direction.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-06-11 23:47

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