Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-06-03 23:48

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Neutral
Score: -1/5
Short: BUY | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $63.91 $0.01
WTI: $62.52 $1.73
Spread: $1.39 (Brent premium of $1.39)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: 440,363 (0)
Net Imports: 2,050 (0)

News Sentiment

NEUTRAL

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 103,947
Weekly Change: 7,932

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -1 (Neutral)
Current Price: $63.19
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $61.61

MA(20): $61.53

Current Price is 63.19, 9 day MA 61.61, 20 day MA 61.53

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.087

Signal: -0.3315

Days since crossover: 17

MACD crossed the line 17 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 55.16

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 55.16 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 7,566

Avg (20d): 258,913

Ratio: 0.03

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 77.53

%D: 54.53

Stochastic %K: 77.53, %D: 54.53. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 16.25

+DI: 21.79

-DI: 17.48

ADX: 16.25 (+DI: 21.79, -DI: 17.48). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -22.47

Williams %R: -22.47 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 64.25

Middle: 61.53

Lower: 58.82

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 64.25, Middle: 61.53, Lower: 58.82

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production 13401.0 13392.0 13100.0 12400.0
Crude Imports 6351.0 6089.0 6663.0 6734.67
Crude Exports 4301.0 3507.0 4730.0 4376.67
Refinery Inputs 16328.0 16490.0 16482.0 16427.0
Net Imports 2050.0 2582.0 1933.0 2358.0
Commercial Crude Stocks 440363.0 443158.0 458845.0 443026.33
Crude & Products Total Stocks 1623724.0 1623569.0 1619299.0 1637361.33
Gasoline Stocks 223081.0 225522.0 226822.0 221303.33
Distillate Stocks 103408.0 104132.0 116744.0 110779.0

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (JUL 25) settled at $63.91, change $+0.01. WTI crude (JUL 25) settled at $62.52, change $+1.73. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $1.39 (Brent premium of $1.39). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$63.91
0.01
(JUL 25)

WTI Crude

$62.52
1.73
(JUL 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$1.39
Brent premium of $1.39

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious optimism regarding the market outlook, despite recent price declines and mixed economic growth forecasts.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Steady global economic growth with minor revisions in forecasts.
  • Stable growth in world oil demand and supply projections.
  • Mixed performance in refining margins and product markets.
  • Changes in tanker market dynamics with varying freight rates.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation from 5-year average -173 mb As of March
Compliance Levels with Production Agreements N/A Not Mentioned

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC maintains a focus on market stability, indicating a need for careful monitoring of supply and demand dynamics, especially in light of the recent price fluctuations and economic uncertainties. The organization emphasizes the importance of cooperation among member countries to ensure a balanced market moving forward.

Direct Quotes

"The front end of the ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI and GME Oman forward curves strengthened further in April, reflecting traders’ optimism about the market outlook in the short-term."
"Demand for DoC crude is revised upward, indicating a positive adjustment in market expectations."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-05-27

Managed Money

103,947
Change: -7,932
5.3% of OI

Producer/Merchant

270,393
Change: +13,974
13.9% of OI

Swap Dealers

-439,500
Change: +3,713
-22.6% of OI

Open Interest

1,943,708
Change: 70,435

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-05-27

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,943,708 contracts (+70,435)

Managed Money Net Position: 103,947 contracts (5.3% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -7,932 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 270,393 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -439,500 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

NEUTRAL
Average Polarity: 0.002
Confidence: 1.43
Articles Analyzed: 28
Last Updated: 2025-06-03 23:47:35

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

0.0

Top News Topics

Supply

3 articles

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

99.28
Daily: 0.58 (0.59%)
Weekly: -0.6 (-0.6%)

US_10Y

4.46
Daily: -0.0 (-0.04%)
Weekly: -0.02 (-0.38%)

SP500

5970.37
Daily: 34.43 (0.58%)
Weekly: 81.82 (1.39%)

VIX

17.69
Daily: -0.67 (-3.65%)
Weekly: -1.62 (-8.39%)

GOLD

3385.2
Daily: 14.6 (0.43%)
Weekly: 91.6 (2.78%)

COPPER

4.88
Daily: 0.04 (0.84%)
Weekly: 0.23 (4.97%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $63.19
Closest Support: $61.68 2.39% below current price
Closest Resistance: $63.7 0.81% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $55.12
0.236 $59.17
0.382 $61.68 Support
0.5 $63.7 Resistance
0.618 $65.72
0.786 $68.61
1.0 $72.28

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $76.95
1.618 $82.88
2.0 $89.44
2.618 $100.04

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $63.41
Forecast Generated: 2025-06-03 23:47:36
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.15%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-06-04 $63.31 $61.08 $65.54
2025-06-05 $63.33 $61.1 $65.56
2025-06-06 $63.29 $61.06 $65.52
2025-06-07 $63.17 $60.94 $65.4
2025-06-08 $63.13 $60.9 $65.35

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.15% for the next trading day (2025-06-04), reaching $63.31.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-06-04 and 2025-06-08.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~7.0% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent price movements indicate a decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks, with the OPEC Reference Basket averaging $68.98/b. The Brent-WTI spread has narrowed slightly to $3.50/b, reflecting tighter supply dynamics in the U.S. compared to global markets.

Traders should monitor the volatility stemming from geopolitical tensions and OPEC's production adjustments, which could impact short-term price direction. The Fibonacci levels may indicate potential support around $62.00 for WTI, with resistance near $66.00.

The managed money positioning suggests a weakening bullish sentiment, with a net position of 103,947 contracts. This could signal caution for speculative trading strategies in the near term.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The decline in crude prices presents a challenge for production planning, as lower prices may impact revenue projections. Producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with price volatility.

With OECD commercial crude stocks at 1,323 mb, which is 139 mb below the 2015–2019 average, inventory levels could influence market sentiment and operational decisions. The upward revision in demand for DoC crude to 42.6 mb/d in 2025 may provide some optimism for producers.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations as crude prices remain under pressure. The $62.52 for WTI and $63.91 for Brent indicate a tight market environment, which could lead to procurement strategies focused on securing favorable pricing.

Supply reliability risks are heightened due to geopolitical factors and fluctuating inventory levels. With crude imports into the U.S. declining by 0.1 mb/d m-o-m, monitoring supply chains and adjusting procurement strategies will be crucial to mitigate disruptions.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently facing headwinds due to declining prices across major benchmarks and a neutral market sentiment reflected in the sentiment score of +0.002. Key driving factors include OPEC's production adjustments, global economic growth forecasts, and positioning shifts among managed money traders.

The balance of supply and demand shows a slight upward revision in demand projections, yet the weaker managed money positioning indicates potential shifts in market dynamics. Analysts should remain vigilant regarding geopolitical developments and their implications for supply stability and price movements.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-06-03 23:48

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