Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-06-02 23:47

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -2/5
Short: BUY | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $63.9 $0.25
WTI: $60.79 $0.15
Spread: $3.11 (Brent premium of $3.11)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: 440,363 (0)
Net Imports: 2,050 (0)

News Sentiment

NEUTRAL

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 103,947
Weekly Change: 7,932

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $62.94
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $61.58

MA(20): $61.25

Current Price is 62.94, 9 day MA 61.58, 20 day MA 61.25

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.2015

Signal: -0.386

Days since crossover: 16

MACD crossed the line 16 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 54.19

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 54.19 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 11,999

Avg (20d): 254,375

Ratio: 0.05

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 71.91

%D: 39.97

Stochastic %K: 71.91, %D: 39.97. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 16.31

+DI: 20.88

-DI: 18.42

ADX: 16.31 (+DI: 20.88, -DI: 18.42). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -28.09

Williams %R: -28.09 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 64.5

Middle: 61.25

Lower: 58.0

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 64.5, Middle: 61.25, Lower: 58.0

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production 13401.0 13392.0 13100.0 12400.0
Crude Imports 6351.0 6089.0 6663.0 6734.67
Crude Exports 4301.0 3507.0 4730.0 4376.67
Refinery Inputs 16328.0 16490.0 16482.0 16427.0
Net Imports 2050.0 2582.0 1933.0 2358.0
Commercial Crude Stocks 440363.0 443158.0 458845.0 443026.33
Crude & Products Total Stocks 1623724.0 1623569.0 1619299.0 1637361.33
Gasoline Stocks 223081.0 225522.0 226822.0 221303.33
Distillate Stocks 103408.0 104132.0 116744.0 110779.0

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (JUL 25) settled at $63.90, change $-0.25. WTI crude (JUL 25) settled at $60.79, change $-0.15. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.11 (Brent premium of $3.11). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$63.9
0.25
(JUL 25)

WTI Crude

$60.79
0.15
(JUL 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$3.11
Brent premium of $3.11

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious sentiment regarding the oil market, reflecting concerns over supply adjustments and economic growth forecasts while maintaining a positive outlook for short-term demand.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Revised global economic growth forecasts for major economies.
  • Stable growth in world oil demand, particularly in non-OECD regions.
  • Adjustments in non-OPEC liquids supply growth forecasts.
  • Fluctuations in product markets and refining operations.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015–2019 average March data
Compliance Levels N/A Not Mentioned

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC maintains a focus on market stability, emphasizing the need for careful monitoring of supply and demand dynamics. The organization is prepared to adjust its production strategies to align with evolving market conditions and ensure a balanced oil market.

Direct Quotes

"The global economy continues to demonstrate a steady growth trend despite recent tariff-related developments."
"Demand for DoC crude is revised upward, reflecting an increase in market confidence."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-05-27

Managed Money

103,947
Change: -7,932
5.3% of OI

Producer/Merchant

270,393
Change: +13,974
13.9% of OI

Swap Dealers

-439,500
Change: +3,713
-22.6% of OI

Open Interest

1,943,708
Change: 70,435

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-05-27

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,943,708 contracts (+70,435)

Managed Money Net Position: 103,947 contracts (5.3% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -7,932 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 270,393 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -439,500 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

NEUTRAL
Average Polarity: -0.006
Confidence: 1.43
Articles Analyzed: 29
Last Updated: 2025-06-02 23:47:28

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.01

Top News Topics

Supply

3 articles

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.89
Daily: -0.44 (-0.44%)
Weekly: -0.62 (-0.63%)

US_10Y

4.46
Daily: 0.05 (1.04%)
Weekly: 0.03 (0.63%)

SP500

5935.94
Daily: 24.25 (0.41%)
Weekly: 14.4 (0.24%)

VIX

18.36
Daily: -0.21 (-1.13%)
Weekly: -0.6 (-3.16%)

GOLD

3391.1
Daily: 102.2 (3.11%)
Weekly: 92.0 (2.79%)

COPPER

4.75
Daily: 0.1 (2.19%)
Weekly: 0.04 (0.94%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $62.94
Closest Support: $61.68 2.0% below current price
Closest Resistance: $63.7 1.21% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $55.12
0.236 $59.17
0.382 $61.68 Support
0.5 $63.7 Resistance
0.618 $65.72
0.786 $68.61
1.0 $72.28

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $76.95
1.618 $82.88
2.0 $89.44
2.618 $100.04

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $62.52
Forecast Generated: 2025-06-02 23:47:29
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.05%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-06-03 $62.49 $60.16 $64.82
2025-06-04 $62.42 $60.09 $64.75
2025-06-05 $62.46 $60.13 $64.79
2025-06-06 $62.43 $60.1 $64.75
2025-06-07 $62.33 $60.0 $64.66

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.05% for the next trading day (2025-06-03), reaching $62.49.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-06-03 and 2025-06-07.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~7.5% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent market sentiment remains neutral, with a slight bearish tilt indicated by the -0.006 sentiment score. The Brent-WTI spread is currently at $3.11, reflecting ongoing supply and demand dynamics. Traders should monitor the support levels around $60 for WTI and $63 for Brent, with potential resistance at $66. The narrowing spread indicates a convergence of market factors, suggesting short-term volatility may persist as traders react to geopolitical developments and OPEC's production adjustments.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

With global oil supply growth projected to rise by 0.8 mb/d in 2025, producers should evaluate their production planning and hedging strategies accordingly. The recent increase in OECD commercial crude stocks by 21.4 mb may impact market pricing, suggesting a need for careful inventory management. Additionally, the market sentiment remains neutral, but the potential for price fluctuations exists due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions and OPEC's production decisions.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should brace for potential input cost fluctuations as WTI and Brent prices remain under pressure. The current prices around $60.79 for WTI and $63.90 for Brent suggest a need for strategic procurement planning. Supply reliability risks are heightened due to geopolitical factors and fluctuating inventory levels, necessitating a focus on hedging strategies to mitigate potential price spikes. The anticipated growth in global oil demand by 1.3 mb/d in 2025 may further influence procurement decisions.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a neutral sentiment with impending volatility influenced by supply and demand fundamentals. Key driving factors include OPEC's recent production adjustments, projected global demand growth of 1.3 mb/d, and the implications of rising global inventories. Analysts should closely monitor the CFTC positioning data, which shows a bearish trend in managed money positions, indicating potential shifts in market dynamics. Overall, the outlook remains cautiously optimistic, but fluctuations in geopolitical and economic factors could lead to significant shifts in market behavior.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please conduct your own research or consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-06-02 23:47

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