Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-06-01 23:47

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -2/5
Short: BUY | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $63.9 $0.25
WTI: $60.79 $0.15
Spread: $3.11 (Brent premium of $3.11)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: 440,363 (0)
Net Imports: 2,050 (0)

News Sentiment

NEUTRAL

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 103,947
Weekly Change: 7,932

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $62.35
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $61.52

MA(20): $61.22

Current Price is 62.35, 9 day MA 61.52, 20 day MA 61.22

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.2486

Signal: -0.3954

Days since crossover: 16

MACD crossed the line 16 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 52.16

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 52.16 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 38,402

Avg (20d): 251,442

Ratio: 0.15

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 58.65

%D: 35.56

Stochastic %K: 58.65, %D: 35.56. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 15.99

+DI: 19.41

-DI: 18.76

ADX: 15.99 (+DI: 19.41, -DI: 18.76). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -41.35

Williams %R: -41.35 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 64.42

Middle: 61.22

Lower: 58.02

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 64.42, Middle: 61.22, Lower: 58.02

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production 13401.0 13392.0 13100.0 12400.0
Crude Imports 6351.0 6089.0 6663.0 6734.67
Crude Exports 4301.0 3507.0 4730.0 4376.67
Refinery Inputs 16328.0 16490.0 16482.0 16427.0
Net Imports 2050.0 2582.0 1933.0 2358.0
Commercial Crude Stocks 440363.0 443158.0 458845.0 443026.33
Crude & Products Total Stocks 1623724.0 1623569.0 1619299.0 1637361.33
Gasoline Stocks 223081.0 225522.0 226822.0 221303.33
Distillate Stocks 103408.0 104132.0 116744.0 110779.0

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (JUL 25) settled at $63.90, change $-0.25. WTI crude (JUL 25) settled at $60.79, change $-0.15. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.11 (Brent premium of $3.11). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$63.9
0.25
(JUL 25)

WTI Crude

$60.79
0.15
(JUL 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$3.11
Brent premium of $3.11

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious optimism regarding the oil market, highlighting steady global economic growth and stable demand forecasts despite recent price declines.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Steady global economic growth with minor adjustments to forecasts.
  • Stable growth in global oil demand expected in 2025 and 2026.
  • Revisions in non-OPEC liquids supply growth forecasts.
  • Fluctuations in refinery margins and tanker freight rates.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015–2019 average As of March
Compliance Levels with Production Agreements N/A Not Mentioned

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC maintains a focus on market stability, emphasizing the need for cooperation among member countries to manage production levels effectively and respond to fluctuations in global demand and supply dynamics.

Direct Quotes

"The market outlook remains optimistic in the short-term, reflecting traders’ confidence despite recent price adjustments."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-05-27

Managed Money

103,947
Change: -7,932
5.3% of OI

Producer/Merchant

270,393
Change: +13,974
13.9% of OI

Swap Dealers

-439,500
Change: +3,713
-22.6% of OI

Open Interest

1,943,708
Change: 70,435

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-05-27

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,943,708 contracts (+70,435)

Managed Money Net Position: 103,947 contracts (5.3% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -7,932 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 270,393 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -439,500 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

NEUTRAL
Average Polarity: -0.031
Confidence: 1.38
Articles Analyzed: 33
Last Updated: 2025-06-01 23:47:23

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.03

Top News Topics

Supply

4 articles

Demand

1 articles

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

99.33
Daily: -0.0 (-0.0%)
Weekly: -0.19 (-0.19%)

US_10Y

4.42
Daily: -0.01 (-0.18%)
Weekly: -0.09 (-2.06%)

SP500

5911.69
Daily: -0.48 (-0.01%)
Weekly: 108.87 (1.88%)

VIX

18.57
Daily: -0.61 (-3.18%)
Weekly: -3.72 (-16.69%)

GOLD

3327.3
Daily: 38.4 (1.17%)
Weekly: 28.2 (0.85%)

COPPER

4.84
Daily: 0.18 (3.94%)
Weekly: 0.13 (2.68%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $62.35
Closest Support: $61.68 1.07% below current price
Closest Resistance: $63.7 2.17% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $55.12
0.236 $59.17
0.382 $61.68 Support
0.5 $63.7 Resistance
0.618 $65.72
0.786 $68.61
1.0 $72.28

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $76.95
1.618 $82.88
2.0 $89.44
2.618 $100.04

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $60.79
Forecast Generated: 2025-06-01 23:47:24
Next Trading Day: UP 0.03%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-05-31 $60.81 $58.53 $63.09
2025-06-01 $60.84 $58.56 $63.12
2025-06-02 $60.81 $58.53 $63.09
2025-06-03 $60.86 $58.58 $63.14
2025-06-04 $60.87 $58.59 $63.15

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.03% for the next trading day (2025-05-31), reaching $60.81.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-05-31 and 2025-06-04.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~7.5% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent neutral sentiment in the market suggests a cautious approach to trading. Price movements indicate a $5.02 decline in the OPEC Reference Basket, reflecting bearish sentiment in the short term. The $3.11 Brent-WTI spread indicates a slight premium for Brent, which may suggest market expectations of stronger international demand relative to U.S. supply. Watch for potential support levels around $60.79 for WTI and $63.90 for Brent, while resistance may form near recent highs. Given the risk factors from geopolitical tensions and fluctuating inventories, traders should remain vigilant for volatility and consider short-term trades based on these indicators.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The current balance of supply and demand indicates a slight upward revision in demand for DoC crude, now at 42.6 mb/d for 2025, which may support production planning. However, with a decline in crude production from OPEC, producers should assess their hedging strategies carefully, especially as OECD commercial crude inventories are 173 mb below the 2015–2019 average, suggesting tighter supply. The market sentiment is currently weak, which may impact pricing strategies and necessitate adjustments in operational plans.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

With crude prices showing volatility and a decline in supply reliability due to geopolitical factors, consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations. The $5.8 mb/d decline in U.S. crude imports highlights possible supply constraints, while stable product exports indicate a competitive market for refined products. Consumers should consider strategies for procurement, particularly as the Brent-WTI spread reflects ongoing dynamics in global supply and demand. Additionally, the subdued gasoline blending demand in Europe could lead to price adjustments that may affect procurement strategies.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market presents a complex picture, with bearish signals from recent price declines and neutral sentiment dominating the news. Key driving factors include a slight upward revision in demand forecasts, particularly from non-OECD countries, and a tightening supply outlook due to OPEC's production cuts. The managed money positioning indicates a bullish sentiment but weakening, suggesting potential shifts in market dynamics. Analysts should closely monitor geopolitical developments and inventory levels, which are critical in shaping future price movements.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-06-01 23:47

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