Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-05-31 23:47

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -2/5
Short: SELL | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $63.9 $0.25
WTI: $60.79 $0.15
Spread: $3.11 (Brent premium of $3.11)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: 440,363 (0)
Net Imports: 2,050 (0)

News Sentiment

NEUTRAL

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 103,947
Weekly Change: 7,932

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $60.79
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $61.56

MA(20): $61.02

Current Price is 60.79, 9 day MA 61.56, 20 day MA 61.02

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.3524

Signal: -0.4321

Days since crossover: 15

MACD crossed the line 15 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 45.81

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 45.81 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

HIGHER

Current: 299,859

Avg (20d): 265,626

Ratio: 1.13

Volume is higher versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 23.6

%D: 37.19

Stochastic %K: 23.6, %D: 37.19. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 17.09

+DI: 17.2

-DI: 20.06

ADX: 17.09 (+DI: 17.2, -DI: 20.06). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -76.4

Williams %R: -76.4 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 64.42

Middle: 61.02

Lower: 57.62

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 64.42, Middle: 61.02, Lower: 57.62

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production 13401.0 13392.0 13100.0 12400.0
Crude Imports 6351.0 6089.0 6663.0 6734.67
Crude Exports 4301.0 3507.0 4730.0 4376.67
Refinery Inputs 16328.0 16490.0 16482.0 16427.0
Net Imports 2050.0 2582.0 1933.0 2358.0
Commercial Crude Stocks 440363.0 443158.0 458845.0 443026.33
Crude & Products Total Stocks 1623724.0 1623569.0 1619299.0 1637361.33
Gasoline Stocks 223081.0 225522.0 226822.0 221303.33
Distillate Stocks 103408.0 104132.0 116744.0 110779.0

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (JUL 25) settled at $63.90, change $-0.25. WTI crude (JUL 25) settled at $60.79, change $-0.15. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.11 (Brent premium of $3.11). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$63.9
0.25
(JUL 25)

WTI Crude

$60.79
0.15
(JUL 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$3.11
Brent premium of $3.11

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious sentiment regarding the oil market, reflecting concerns over supply-demand balance amidst fluctuating economic forecasts and price adjustments.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across major benchmarks.
  • Steady global economic growth despite recent challenges.
  • Stable growth in world oil demand projected for 2025 and 2026.
  • Revised forecasts for non-OPEC liquids supply growth.
  • Fluctuations in refining margins and product market dynamics.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015–2019 average As of March
Compliance Levels with Production Agreements N/A Not Mentioned

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC maintains a focus on market stability, emphasizing the need for cooperation among member countries to manage production levels effectively. The organization is closely monitoring global economic indicators and oil demand trends to adjust its strategies accordingly.

Direct Quotes

"The global economy continues to demonstrate a steady growth trend despite recent tariff-related developments."
"Demand for DoC crude is revised upward, reflecting an increase in market confidence."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-05-27

Managed Money

103,947
Change: -7,932
5.3% of OI

Producer/Merchant

270,393
Change: +13,974
13.9% of OI

Swap Dealers

-439,500
Change: +3,713
-22.6% of OI

Open Interest

1,943,708
Change: 70,435

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-05-27

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,943,708 contracts (+70,435)

Managed Money Net Position: 103,947 contracts (5.3% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -7,932 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 270,393 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -439,500 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

NEUTRAL
Average Polarity: -0.014
Confidence: 1.37
Articles Analyzed: 45
Last Updated: 2025-05-31 23:46:56

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.01

Top News Topics

Supply

4 articles

Demand

3 articles

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

99.33
Daily: 0.05 (0.05%)
Weekly: 0.4 (0.4%)

US_10Y

4.42
Daily: -0.01 (-0.18%)
Weekly: -0.09 (-2.06%)

SP500

5911.69
Daily: -0.48 (-0.01%)
Weekly: 108.87 (1.88%)

VIX

18.57
Daily: -0.61 (-3.18%)
Weekly: -3.72 (-16.69%)

GOLD

3288.9
Daily: -28.2 (-0.85%)
Weekly: -74.7 (-2.22%)

COPPER

4.65
Daily: -0.0 (-0.02%)
Weekly: -0.15 (-3.2%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $60.79
Closest Support: $59.17 2.66% below current price
Closest Resistance: $61.68 1.46% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $55.12
0.236 $59.17 Support
0.382 $61.68 Resistance
0.5 $63.7
0.618 $65.72
0.786 $68.61
1.0 $72.28

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $76.95
1.618 $82.88
2.0 $89.44
2.618 $100.04

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $60.79
Forecast Generated: 2025-05-31 23:47:06
Next Trading Day: UP 0.03%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-05-31 $60.81 $58.53 $63.09
2025-06-01 $60.84 $58.56 $63.12
2025-06-02 $60.81 $58.53 $63.09
2025-06-03 $60.86 $58.58 $63.15
2025-06-04 $60.87 $58.59 $63.15

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.03% for the next trading day (2025-05-31), reaching $60.81.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-05-31 and 2025-06-04.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~7.5% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent neutral sentiment in the market indicates a cautious approach among traders. The $63.90 for Brent and $60.79 for WTI suggest potential support levels at these prices, while the $3.11 Brent-WTI spread reflects ongoing geopolitical dynamics and transportation costs. Traders should monitor the narrowing spread, which may indicate increased short-term optimism despite overall bearish trends in price movements. The Fibonacci retracement levels may provide additional insights into potential reversal points, particularly if prices approach recent lows.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

Producers should consider the implications of inventory levels which have shown a slight increase, with OECD commercial crude stocks rising by 21.4 mb m-o-m. This could impact production planning and hedging strategies, particularly in light of the bearish sentiment surrounding global supply uncertainties. The upward revision in demand forecasts for DoC crude suggests potential opportunities for increased production, but careful monitoring of market sentiment is essential to navigate potential volatility.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs as prices hover around $63.90 for Brent and $60.79 for WTI. The supply reliability risks highlighted by geopolitical tensions and changing inventories may necessitate a review of procurement strategies. With a neutral market sentiment, it is advisable to consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with price volatility, especially given the expected growth in non-OECD demand.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently influenced by a mixture of bearish and bullish factors. Key drivers include the upward revision in demand forecasts for DoC crude, alongside a slight increase in global inventories, which may exert downward pressure on prices. The neutral sentiment reflects uncertainty in both supply and demand dynamics, particularly with the geopolitical landscape and ongoing economic developments. Analysts should remain vigilant for shifts in market sentiment that could signal a change in the current outlook.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult with a financial advisor for personalized advice.

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-05-31 23:47

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