Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-05-30 23:47

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -2/5
Short: SELL | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $64.15 $0.75
WTI: $60.94 $0.9
Spread: $3.21 (Brent premium of $3.21)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: 440,363 (0)
Net Imports: 2,050 (0)

News Sentiment

NEUTRAL

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 606,308
Weekly Change: 4,897

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $60.79
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $61.56

MA(20): $61.02

Current Price is 60.79, 9 day MA 61.56, 20 day MA 61.02

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.3524

Signal: -0.4321

Days since crossover: 15

MACD crossed the line 15 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 45.81

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 45.81 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

HIGHER

Current: 362,965

Avg (20d): 268,782

Ratio: 1.35

Volume is higher versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 23.6

%D: 37.19

Stochastic %K: 23.6, %D: 37.19. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 17.09

+DI: 17.2

-DI: 20.06

ADX: 17.09 (+DI: 17.2, -DI: 20.06). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -76.4

Williams %R: -76.4 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 64.42

Middle: 61.02

Lower: 57.62

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 64.42, Middle: 61.02, Lower: 57.62

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production 13401.0 13392.0 13100.0 12400.0
Crude Imports 6351.0 6089.0 6663.0 6734.67
Crude Exports 4301.0 3507.0 4730.0 4376.67
Refinery Inputs 16328.0 16490.0 16482.0 16427.0
Net Imports 2050.0 2582.0 1933.0 2358.0
Commercial Crude Stocks 440363.0 443158.0 458845.0 443026.33
Crude & Products Total Stocks 1623724.0 1623569.0 1619299.0 1637361.33
Gasoline Stocks 223081.0 225522.0 226822.0 221303.33
Distillate Stocks 103408.0 104132.0 116744.0 110779.0

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (JUL 25) settled at $64.15, change $-0.75. WTI crude (JUL 25) settled at $60.94, change $-0.90. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.21 (Brent premium of $3.21). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$64.15
-0.75
(JUL 25)

WTI Crude

$60.94
-0.9
(JUL 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$3.21
Brent premium of $3.21

OPEC Analysis

BEARISH
66.67% confidence
Demand
Production
Stocks
Category Current Value Mean Change Volatility Range
World Demand
Americas 12 12 0 12 to 12
Europe 6 6 0 6 to 7
Asia Pacific 3 3 0 3 to 3
Middle East 4 4 0 4 to 4
Africa 2 2 0 2 to 2
Production
(b) Total Non-DoC liquids production and DoC NGLs 63 73 25 57 to 126
DoC crude oil production 0 15 21 0 to 42
Non-DoC liquids production 192 209 87 113 to 379
Non-OPEC DoC crude production 0 5 7 0 to 15
OPEC crude oil production (secondary sources) 0 9 13 0 to 27
Total Non-DoC liquids production 63 73 25 57 to 126
Total Non-DoC production 55 63 22 49 to 109
Total liquids production 0 37 51 0 to 103
Non-DoC liquids production and DoC NGLs 64 76 27 61 to 126
Non-DoC production 55 66 23 53 to 109
Stock Levels
Commercial 2,752 2,770 15 2,752 to 2,781
Oil-on-water 1,373 1,452 87 1,373 to 1,545
SPR 1,245 1,238 14 1,206 to 1,245
Total 3,997 3,992 6 3,984 to 3,997
Last updated: 2025-05-30 23:46:56

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-02-01

Large Speculators

368,904
Change: -4,511
17.6% of OI

Non-Commercial

606,308
Change: -4,897
29.0% of OI

Open Interest

2,093,735
Change: -2,259

Summary Analysis:

CFTC CoT Report as of 2025-02-01

Crude Oil Positioning (Legacy Report):

Open Interest: 2,093,735 contracts (-2,259)

Non-Commercial Net Position: 606,308 contracts (29.0% of OI)

Weekly Change in Non-Commercial Net: -4,897 contracts

Large Speculator Net Position: 368,904 contracts (17.6% of OI)

Market Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis: Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Non-commercial (speculative) traders often lead price movements in Crude Oil.

- Extreme positioning can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, released each Friday at 3:30 PM ET.

About CoT Reports:

The CFTC Commitment of Traders (CoT) reports provide a breakdown of open interest for futures markets.

They show the positions of different types of traders, helping to assess market sentiment and potential price movements.

The Legacy report divides traders into 'Commercial' (hedgers) and 'Non-Commercial' (speculators) categories.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

NEUTRAL
Average Polarity: -0.006
Confidence: 1.36
Articles Analyzed: 58
Last Updated: 2025-05-30 23:46:56

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.01

Top News Topics

Supply

9 articles

Demand

3 articles

Geopolitical

2 articles

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

99.44
Daily: 0.16 (0.16%)
Weekly: 0.51 (0.52%)

US_10Y

4.42
Daily: -0.01 (-0.18%)
Weekly: -0.09 (-2.06%)

SP500

5911.69
Daily: -0.48 (-0.01%)
Weekly: 108.87 (1.88%)

VIX

18.57
Daily: -0.61 (-3.18%)
Weekly: -3.72 (-16.69%)

GOLD

3313.1
Daily: -4.0 (-0.12%)
Weekly: -50.5 (-1.5%)

COPPER

4.7
Daily: 0.05 (1.04%)
Weekly: -0.1 (-2.17%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $60.79
Closest Support: $59.17 2.66% below current price
Closest Resistance: $61.68 1.46% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $55.12
0.236 $59.17 Support
0.382 $61.68 Resistance
0.5 $63.7
0.618 $65.72
0.786 $68.61
1.0 $72.28

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $76.95
1.618 $82.88
2.0 $89.44
2.618 $100.04

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $60.94
Forecast Generated: 2025-05-30 23:46:56
Next Trading Day: UP 0.0%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-05-30 $60.94 $58.59 $63.29
2025-05-31 $60.96 $58.61 $63.3
2025-06-01 $60.99 $58.64 $63.33
2025-06-02 $60.95 $58.6 $63.3
2025-06-03 $61.0 $58.66 $63.35

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.00% for the next trading day (2025-05-30), reaching $60.94.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-05-30 and 2025-06-03.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~7.7% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

Current market dynamics indicate potential volatility as prices for Brent and WTI are experiencing slight declines, with Brent at $64.15 and WTI at $60.94. The Brent-WTI spread of $3.21 suggests a divergence in supply-demand dynamics, which could present short-term trading opportunities.

Given the negative sentiment around supply concerns, traders should watch for potential support levels around recent lows. The weakening bullish positioning among non-commercial traders could also indicate potential price corrections.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The recent decrease in commercial crude stocks by -2795.00 million barrels may necessitate adjustments in production planning. With the market sentiment leaning towards supply uncertainty, producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate potential price declines.

Additionally, the anticipated final OPEC+ supply hike could impact output levels, necessitating careful monitoring of inventory trends to align production with market demand.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Input cost fluctuations remain a concern with WTI and Brent prices showing slight declines. With Brent at $64.15 and WTI at $60.94, consumers should prepare for potential input cost volatility.

Geopolitical risks, particularly regarding U.S. sanctions against Russia, could further complicate supply reliability. It is advisable for consumers to consider procurement strategies that account for these uncertainties, including potential hedging to stabilize costs.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The current Crude Oil market is characterized by mixed signals. While the fundamentals reflect a decrease in commercial stocks, the news sentiment indicates concerns over demand and geopolitical tensions.

Positioning data shows a weakening bullish sentiment among non-commercial traders, suggesting that price movements may be influenced by speculative actions. Analysts should closely monitor these developments as they may signal shifts in market outlook.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-05-30 23:47

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